Testing the effects of positional uncertainty on spatial decision‐making

There is now increasing agreement that the uncertainty associated with spatial information should be represented to users in a manner that is comprehensive and unambiguous. To assist with this task, researchers have developed a variety of methods to portray spatial uncertainty. While there has been some testing of the effectiveness of these displays, the possible effects of such representations on decision‐making have not yet been thoroughly investigated. Indeed, studies from the psychological literature indicate that people do not always make the same decisions when presented with the same information, and they can also be sensitive to the effects of presentation, task, and context. This paper examines how the use of four different methods to represent positional uncertainty can affect spatial decision‐making. The authors found that extremely significant differences in participants' responses were exhibited, depending on the manner in which positional uncertainty was displayed, although little difference was observed in the ability of the participants to comprehend the four display methods. In addition, strong preferences were recorded for certain representations over others.     

Belonging in charlotte: multiscalar differences in local immigration politics and policies

In the context of Charlotte, North Carolina's, emergence as a “globalizing” pre‐emergent immigrant gateway, this paper focuses on a complex and multiscalar set of governmental policies and community‐development dynamics that are shaping localized response to Hispanic/Latino immigration. Specifically, we explore how these policies and dynamics play out spatially in the context of two Charlotte neighborhoods, both of which have similar historical roots and have become magnets for Latino settlement, yet display divergent contemporary place‐making paths. Our exploration reveals the ways in which contexts of receptivity and spaces of both exclusion and inclusion are created by the socio‐spatial components of public policy and the localized response to that policy at the intraurban level. Reinforcing the importance of space and place in the construction of receptivity contexts, the compared stories of Eastside and South Charlotte reveal that neighborhoods are never the product of one transformational force but of many—no matter how they may be perceived in the public imaginary.     

试论电子政务空间辅助决策环境的建立

本文简要介绍了在全球范围兴起的电子政务的发展状况 ,分析了电子政务与空间辅助决策的关系 ,对电子政务空间数据框架的建立、电子政务空间辅助决策软件平台开发等技术问题进行了探讨。最后 ,对电子政务空间辅助决策应用系统建设应注意的问题等主题进行了探讨     

What factors affect the decision making process when setting TACs?: The case of Chilean fisheries

Although failures and successes in fisheries management are related to decision making processes, these are rarely analyzed in detail and even less often following quantitative or semi-quantitative approaches. Herein, we study the decision making process for Chile's most important fisheries using a binary decision model. This model evaluates the probability that an annual total allowable catch (TAC) will or will not be modified by the National Fisheries Council (NFC) based on biological, economic, and social factors. We also analyze some aspects of individual voting, particularly whether the members vote against or abstain from voting on the proposed TAC and if they prioritize resource conservation objectives. Our results indicate that the risk of over exploitation for many important stocks in Chile is aggravated by failures at the decision making level: the scientifically recommended TACs for those fisheries that generate higher levels of employment and have greater economic value are normally increased. This analysis shows that the NFC has clearly prioritized short-term economic and social objectives over resource conservation goals. We discuss the need to adjust the composition and functioning of the NFC in order to ensure long-term sustainability of the fisheries.     

正确认识和对待天气气候预报的不确定性

美国国家科学发展的指导机构同家研究顾问委员会(NRC)不久前发表了一份关于天气、气候和水文预报的不确定性的凋研报告.报告强调了预报不确定性信息在终端用户应用气象预报作决策中的重要性,同时指出一个预报如果没有定量地估计它的不确定性,那么该预报是不完全的.该报告中文版的出版工作正在进行中,现藉此机会向读者综合地介绍一下预报不确定性的问题.文中首先讨论了预报不确定性的缘由以及应该如何来科学地对待它.然后介绍了要应对这一问题所要进行的一些具体措施和策略.最后,简要地介绍了美国气象界为此所做的一些努力和计划以供参考.通过上述讨论和介绍,希望引起更多的人对预报不确定性问题的重视并科学应对以更好地服务社会.     

论1530年涠洲岛东南海域地震及其强度

本文论述了1530年10月对广西合浦与广东海康产生震感的地震是一次海上地震,通过特定作图法得到其震中位于涠洲岛东南13km的海中(21°00′N,109°15′E),推测其震中烈度为Ⅶ度强,震级为5 3/4级。根据历史资料的记述,1530年10月地震是在同一地区相隔数小时内连续发生的两次震级相近似的地震。此外,本文对涠洲岛周围海域区之地质构造作了论述,指出这里发生中强及强震的地质构造条件是充分的,今后对该区的地震危险性应给予重视。     

地震三维灾情影像图生成技术系统研究

本文将计算机技术、遥感技术、地理信息系统、图形图像处理相结合,建立三维矢量数学模型,通过三维可视化技术,形象化地描述灾区的受灾状况和受灾程度,对三维地理空间信息进行可视化管理,实现快速查询、检索、显示、输出、统计、分析及三维可视化,为基于地理信息的决策和管理提供一个真三维的立体可视平台,为地震应急决策部门进行灾害的决策和管理提供三维可视化仿真环境系统。     

路基下岩溶稳定性评价的模糊多层次多属性决策方法研究

影响高速公路路基下岩溶稳定性的因素很多,影响程度各不相同且包含各种模糊信息。基于实际工程资料,综合运用层次分析方法和模糊多属性决策方法,建立路基下岩溶顶板稳定性评价的模糊多层次多属性决策模型;采用Laagoven和Buckley关于层次分析方法中权重比矩阵元素模糊化的建议,推导出权重比矩阵元素为三角模糊数的模糊权值向量计算公式,再按照模糊平均加权方法（F-SAW）得到每个评语的模糊效应值;最后以此结果进行模糊集排序,得到岩溶顶板稳定性的评语。实际工程的应用结果表明了方法的可行性和有效性,为岩溶区路基稳定性评价提供了新的思路和方法。     

Decoding urban development dynamics through actor-network methodological approach

Due to growing social and physical transformations, contemporary cities reveal the profound necessity of proper scientific approaches that are adjusted to conditions of global complexity and dynamic patterns of development. Predominance of an overall market economy, sporadic deregulations of administrative powers and a lack of local investment or resources, dominate urban reality. Incongruous urban decision-making procedures result in contextually inappropriate and incoherent urban management. We will explore these operational elements in Savamala neighbourhood in Belgrade. The actor-network theory (ANT) is applied to analyse the hyper dynamic circumstances of transition in Serbia. An unclear regulatory framework, powerful financial means for investment and limited institutional influence of citizen participation, deploy unstable urban development modalities at the neighbourhood level. ANT offers an insight into how urban norms, projections and structures unfold and how associations and translations of urban elements develop. Plausible yet complex collisions in Savamala constitute a challenge for ANT in mapping urban development processes and visualizing actors and networks through diagrams. Based on the presented results, the illustrative perspective of ANT minimalizes both the importance and the influence of the permanence of urban structures across time and space. Instead, ANT deals with a city as a contingent, fragmentary and heterogeneous, yet persistent product of actors, their roles, associations, agencies and networks. Possible adaptations of ANT should respond to the needs of non-scientific actors and practitioners for an interpretive tool that addresses undercover processes and mechanisms or provides explanations, recommendations or operational diagnoses on how to absorb urban development dynamics.     

Multi-objective optimisation of a floating LNG terminal

The paper presents a comprehensive multi-objective hydrodynamic optimisation procedure and its application to the early design of a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal for improved seakeeping and wave attenuation characteristics on its lee side. Genetic algorithms are used to find the Pareto optima designs followed by multi-objective decision making procedures to select the optimum design among them. The paper addresses the definition of the relevant optimisation problem and the set-up and interface of relevant software tools, presents results of systematic studies with respect to the minimisation of the motion responses and wave elevation on the leeward side of free-floating terminals and concludes with analysis and critical review of the obtained results and their impact on terminal design.