煤层底板水害防治智能决策支持系统框架构建

煤层底板突水是华北型煤田煤矿生产过程中一种常见的水害类型,为解决水害防治工程的科学决策问题,进一步提高防治水工程的可靠性,提出构建智能决策支持系统的技术思路.智能决策支持系统是传统决策支持系统与人工智能技术相互融合的产物,在分析底板水害防治决策支持功能需求的基础上,提出"数据-模型-方案"一体化设计流程,从数据导入、模...     

怎样欣赏山水风光

大自然造化的山水风光对人们具有极大的精神感召力, 而人们要欣赏自然风光的经常途径是旅游。因此, 山水风光已经成为发展国民经济的重要自然资源。旅游地学将地质学、地理学的理论与研究方法运用于旅游资源的调查与开发, 对发展国民经济有重要的理论和经济意义。欣赏山水风光首先要观察山水风光内在的成景因素, 同时也要探索山水与周围环境和社会环境的相互关系和相互作用。前者指山水的自然形态、线条、体积、数量、音响、色彩和动势以及植被; 后者主要指相适应的建筑, 有时还包括气象特征和人文特色。它们共同谓之风景的构成因素。     

国家级决策气象服务需求变化分析

为进一步了解国家级决策气象服务需求变化情况,通过调查问卷方式,收集国家级决策气象服务用户对决策气象服务工作的有关意见,结合2018年决策气象服务具体数据,分析党中央和国务院机构调整后,决策对象对气象灾害的关注特点以及对气象服务需求的变化。据此提出决策气象服务供给侧改革建议,1） 调整决策气象服务业务流程,优化决策气象服务产品内容。2） 推动发展新一代气象服务信息系统,提高决策气象服务技术能力。3） 推动建立与重点部门的沟通对接机制,为重点部门提供定制化、模块化决策气象服务信息支撑,实现用户向制作方的反馈机制。     

淮河洪峰与致洪暴雨

本文从气象与水文角度， 首先研究淮河关键地段（王家坝）水位变化规律和洪峰出现的特征， 并从数理统计理论上对超定量出现次数和洪峰数值进行了随机变量的独立性检验， 然后求出淮河洪峰遵从的概率分布， 并定性和定量地给出超定量大小与超定量历时关系。最后， 结合多年气象资料分析， 指出洪峰出现与淮河致洪暴雨有密切关系。     

应用逼近理想解法综合评价区域水资源承载能力

在多目标决策中,基于传统的逼近于理想解的技术,根据区域水资源承载能力的强与弱和待评价的对象(评价方案)的不理想(负理想)与理想(劣与优)这些典型的模糊概念,提出了基于模糊集合的逼近理想解法(TOPSISFS),并应用于区域水资源承载能力的综合评价中。TOPSISFS与投影寻踪模型法(PP法)、理想区间法(MODMIIM)相比,简单、有效。TOPSISFS可广泛应用于多目标决策中。     

以减少地震死亡人数为目标的地震统计决策

在地震统计预测研究的基础上,本文提出一种以减少地震死亡人数为目标的统计决策方法,力图把经验性的地震决策引向定量化的地震决策,减少在实际工作中的决策失误。文中用已发生过的地震的资料进行检验,说明该方法的可用性。     

论1530年涠洲岛东南海域地震及其强度

本文论述了1530年10月对广西合浦与广东海康产生震感的地震是一次海上地震,通过特定作图法得到其震中位于涠洲岛东南13km的海中(21°00′N,109°15′E),推测其震中烈度为Ⅶ度强,震级为5 3/4级。根据历史资料的记述,1530年10月地震是在同一地区相隔数小时内连续发生的两次震级相近似的地震。此外,本文对涠洲岛周围海域区之地质构造作了论述,指出这里发生中强及强震的地质构造条件是充分的,今后对该区的地震危险性应给予重视。     

Quantitative estimation of petroleum prospect outcome probabilities: an overview of procedures

Estimation of prospect outcome probabilities in numerical form should be a central objective for petroleum geologists. Most numerical estimates of outcome probabilities represent subjective guesses. While the effectiveness of subjective procedures is difficult to gauge, several postmortem analyses suggest that subjective procedures are ineffective. Objective procedures for estimating outcome probabilities should yield much improved estimates. Objective procedures require that geological, geophysical and production data be organized so that geological and geophysical characteristics of prospects interpreted before they were drilled can be compared systematically with outcomes of prospects after they have been drilled. An example application that involves well data and an example application that involves seismic data demonstrate that objective procedures are simple in principle, but require organization of information in a form suitable for computation of frequencies, on which objective estimates of probabilities can be based.     

桶形基础及其作用下的粉质土海床失稳机制研究的试验设计

在阅读、分析以往的有关资料的基础上 ,结合实际的试验条件 ,对桶形基础及其作用下的粉质土海床失稳机制研究的试验作出了专门设计。该设计通过配土、设计模型桶基和负压沉贯的操作过程、设置孔压传感器等实验手段 ,努力从土体破坏的角度 ,寻求负压沉贯过程中沉贯负压、沉贯阻力及孔隙水压力之间的变化关系和确定桶基的上拔力。并且指出了数据处理的基本思路 ,以利于课题的深入研究。     

Multiple adaptation types with mitigation: A framework for policy analysis

Effective climate policy will consist of mitigation and adaptation implemented simultaneously in a policy portfolio to reduce the risks of climate change. Previous studies of the tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation have implicitly framed the problem deterministically, choosing the optimal paths for all time. Because climate change is a long-term problem with significant uncertainties and opportunities to learn and revise, critical tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation in the near-term have not been considered. We propose a new framework for considering the portfolio of mitigation and adaptation that explicitly treats the problem as a multi-stage decision under uncertainty. In this context, there are additional benefits to near-term investments if they reduce uncertainty and lead to improved future decisions. Two particular features are fundamental to understanding the relevant tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation: (1) strategy dynamics over time in reducing climate damages, and (2) strategy dynamics under uncertainty and potential for learning. Our framework strengthens the argument for disaggregating adaption as has been proposed by others. We present three stylized classes of adaptation investment types as a conceptual framework: short-lived “flow” spending, committed “stock” investment, and lower capacity “option” stock with the capability of future upgrading. In the context of sequential decision under uncertainty, these subtypes of adaptation have important tradeoffs among them and with mitigation. We argue that given the large policy uncertainty that we face currently, explicitly considering adaptation “option” investments is a valuable component of a near-term policy response that can balance between the flexible flow and committed stock approaches, as it allows for the delay of costly stock investments while at the same time allowing for lower-cost risk management of future damages.