一种气候预测综合决策的方法——递归正权综合决策法

根据气候预测的特点，提供了以误差平方和为风险函数，以正权综合为模式的多途径气候预测决策方案。不仅从理论上论证了几种正权方法的优性，还提供了递归技巧，进一步提高了正权综合的预测精度。对1997年汛期降水预测所做的综合决策表明，该方法具有较好的综合决策能力。     

Calculation of Uncertainty in the Variogram

There are often limited data available in early stages of geostatistical modeling. This leads to considerable uncertainty in statistical parameters including the variogram. This article presents an approach to calculate the uncertainty in the variogram. A methodology to transfer this uncertainty through geostatistical simulation and decision making is also presented.The experimental variogram value for a separation lag vector h is a mean of squared differences. The variance of a mean can be calculated with a model of the correlation between the pairs of data used in the calculation. The data here are squared differences; therefore, we need a measure of a 4-point correlation. A theoretical multi-Gaussian approach is presented for this uncertainty assessment together with a number of examples. The theoretical results are validated by numerical simulation. The simulation approach permits generalization to non-Gaussian situations.Multiple plausible variograms may be fit knowing the uncertainty at each variogram point, . Multiple geostatistical realizations may then be constructed and subjected to process assessment to measure the impact of this uncertainty.     

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.     

天津市堆山造景工程地基稳定监测与防治

堆山造景工程是一项利用建筑渣土,在坑塘上进行堆载的市政工程。通过对堆山造景工程的工程地质条件分析,结合工程设计、施工工期等条件,提出了清理淤泥、设置反压平台、排水、控制堆填速率等促进地基稳定的防治措施。利用孔隙水压力监测、侧向位移监测及分层沉降监测等原位监测数据,以复合型法进行反演力学计算参数,并将反演结果用于该工程地基稳定性的模拟,以指导后期工程以及类似工程的建设。     

谈《长春市真彩色影像地图集》的设计与编制

地图设计是十分复杂的脑力劳动，是生产地图产品各环节的技术依据，优秀的地图产品必须要有好的技术设计来指导。本文主要通过介绍《长春市真彩色影像地图集》技术设计的编写及影像地图集编制过程畅谈一下自己的体会。     

地图数据图层级批量综合功能的设计与研制

目前,已有地图综合系统使用过程中需要专业人员深度参与,耗时耗力、自动化程度较低。针对这一问题,从软件工程的角度探讨了图层级批量综合功能的研制。以1∶5万居民地图层数据的综合处理为例,分别从建筑物目标的剖分、特征参量定义与计算、综合操作决策与实施、综合控制规则建立与表达4个方面进行分析,尝试构建"特征诊断→行为决策→操作执行"的完整技术链条。结合样例数据对提出的技术设想进行可行性验证,并对后续工作进行展望。     

Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

The public's willingness to engage in mitigation actions has not received as much attention as the level of belief in Global Warming (GW), especially on the international stage. Research in Western nations indicates that people systematically misunderstand GW and the actions required for mitigation. Important factors that influence judgments about mitigation actions include personal experiences, beliefs, knowledge, values, and worldviews. We present results of an international survey (25 samples from 24 countries) measuring general intentions to act and willingness to engage in specific actions. Our analysis reveals that endorsement of specific actions is (a) lower than general endorsement of mitigation, (b) accompanied by higher intra-individual variance, and (c) more strongly related to personal experiences with GW. This pattern can be attributed to the compatibility between the proximal construal of specific actions and the nature of the personal experience. Lastly we provide recommendations on how these findings can be used to encourage mitigation action.     

文化多元与邂逅：电影作品中的华裔社区地方营造

经过艺术加工的影视作品反映现实的同时也高于现实,不断重构、书写现实空间。本研究援引邂逅地理及地方感等理论,以5部华裔社区空间题材的电影作品为主要分析对象,以文本分析法为主要研究方法,探讨五部影片中关于华裔社区的选择再现及其背后蕴涵的社会文化意义。研究发现：①影视文本首先从民俗仪式与风水文化两个空间文化符号出发,构建地方性;在此基础上,电影文本以景观符号为切入口再现华裔社区的物质空间,实现新的地方营造。②文化多元的背景下,华裔社区成为“我者”文化与“他者”文化邂逅的重要场所。③非表征理论通过强调人的“身体”与族裔社区的相互关系从而在地方协商和情感融入框架下探索新的邂逅。研究还进一步探讨了电影文本中族裔社区的文化多元性与地方治理的关系,为族裔社区在未来实现更好的地方治理提供参考与建议。     

Gentrifying rural community development: A case study of Bama Panyang River Basin in Guangxi,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Rural gentrification is deeply characterized by institutional context and spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Based on a diachronic field investigation, this paper...     

未来能源──氢及其制取工艺

叙述了氢及其同位素的性质，提出了几种制氢的方案，并通过电解水制氢和在切割上代替氧（乙炔的应用取得的成果，为氢取代矿物燃料而走进家庭的研究打下基础。氢可储存，氢也可在交通上作为燃料，并且没有污染，是未来的重要能源之一。