Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO₂ by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.

Key policy insights

• Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.

• The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.

• Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.

• Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.

• Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO₂ emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

     

DRASTIC模型的缺陷与改进方法探讨

从模型原理、模型计算方法、评价结果三个方面系统地总结了DRASTIC模型的缺陷,并指出国内在地下水防污性能评价上的误区,提出模型的改进方法,在此基础上提出了基于DRASTIC模型的模糊综合评价模型,并应用于九江市的地下水防污性能评价工作,取得了较好的效果。     

Validating a Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model (the PTVA Model) Using Field Data from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

The “PTVAM” tsunami vulnerability assessment model [Papathoma and Dominey-Howes: 2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 733–744; Papathoma et al.: 2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 377–389], like all models, requires validation. We use the results from post-tsunami surveys in the Maldives following the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to ‘evaluate’ the appropriateness of the PTVAM attributes to understanding spatial and temporal vulnerability to tsunami damage and loss. We find that some of the PTVAM attributes are significantly important and others moderately important to understanding and assessing vulnerability. Some attributes require further investigation. Based upon the ground-truth data, we make several modifications to the model framework and propose a revised version of the PTVAM (PTVAM 2).     

垃圾堆放场氯代脂肪烃对浅层地下水的污染特征初步分析

研究区是浅层地下水主要补给区，通过区内地下水监测说明，受垃圾淋滤液影响的地下水中氯代烃高值点主要集中在研究区中部；地下水中氯代烃检出值和检出率有季节性变化特征，与垃圾堆放时间和该井距垃圾场堆放场距离有密切关系，堆放时间越长，离垃圾堆放场越近，检出率、检出值越高；对地下水污染的敏感性和影响氯代烃迁移的机理方面进行了分析。     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment of the SW Trans-Danubian Central Range, Hungary

 The most important karst water reservoir of Hungary is found in the SW Trans-Danubian Central Range, selected as test area for the proposed "system approach" and the application of GIS/ARC-INFO to vulnerability mapping. In addition, a case-study exemplifies the particularities of regional karst-aquifer vulnerability, and moreover the interpretation of data and maps from the very same point of view. The work has resulted in plotting an atlas to be a useful tool in the hands of land-users and waste-disposal managers, helping them to prevent groundwater deterioration. Received: 22 July 1996 · Accepted: 12 September 1997     

辽宁省中南部分城市地下水脆弱性评价

通过对辽中南地区的地质与水文地质条件特征、含水层的富水性、开采利用地下水现状等资料的调查和了解,利用地下水脆弱性的DRASTIC评价模型和AHP模糊评价模型,对地下水固有脆弱性的七个因素指标进行了赋值、计算。最终得出了辽宁省中南部分城市地下水脆弱性分区分为强脆弱区、较强脆弱区、中等脆弱区、弱脆弱区。     

地下水脆弱性和风险性评价研究进展综述

地下水脆弱性和风险性评价与区划是区域地下水资源保护的重要依据。本文回顾了各国地下水脆弱性评价与编图研究工作以及地下水污染风险评价研究的最新进展,提出地下水污染风险评价的框架及其指标体系,最后指出今后需要深入研究的问题。     

西南山区城镇地质灾害易损性评价方法 ——以四川省丹巴县城为例

以具有典型性和代表性的四川省丹巴县城为重点研究案例,对西南山区城镇地质灾害易损性评价方法进行了较系统的探索。针对西南山区城镇的特点,提出了地质灾害承灾体的调查方法,构建了地质灾害易损性大比例尺评价的指标体系和评价模型,介绍了利用ILWIS软件进行地质灾害易损性评价的技术方法。易损性评价结果表明,丹巴县城区地质灾害易损性较高的地区主要为学校、居民小区等人口集中、物质经济价值大的地段。研究区内具有极低易损性(易损性值在0~0.25之间)的承灾体面积占整个研究区面积的96.48%,具有低易损性(易损性值在0.25~0.50之间)的承灾体面积占3.21%,具有中等易损性(易损性值在0.50~0.75之间)的承灾体面积占0.29%,而具有高易损性(易损性值在0.75~1之间)的承灾体面积仅占0.02% 。     

陕西秦岭山地生态脆弱性评价

以陕西秦岭山地为研究对象,根据区域特征选取了18项评价指标进行案例研究,构建了"敏感(本底)-压力(干扰)-弹性(反馈)"的评价模型,用层次分析法确定各指标权重,综合指数法定量评价了该区域生态环境的脆弱程度,借助于ArcGIS展示了生态脆弱度的空间差异,分析了不同区域生态脆弱性的主导成因,对于该区域的生态保护、资源利用和可持续发展具有指导意义。     

Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.