Prediction Errors Associated with Sparse Grid Estimates of Flows over Hills

Numerical simulations of geophysical flows have to be done on very sparse grids. Nevertheless, flows over moderately sloped hills can be predicted quite accurately as long as the near ground vertical resolution is reasonably dense. Recirculation flows behind steeper hills are associated with slow convergence towards grid independent integrations, but even then moderately stratified flows of this type can be predicted usefully accurately. For better horizontal grids than about half the hill-height Δx ₁/H ≈ 0.5 or so, separation and recirculating domains are predicted with an error factor comparable to 0.3. The characteristic wavelength of lee waves is predicted more accurately while the lee wave amplitude and the maximum turbulence intensity in recirculating domains are underestimated by factors comparable to 0.3. Strongly stratified flows may be associated with hydraulic transitions and even this is predicted on quite coarse grids, up to say Δx ₁/H ≈ 0.5. However, the details of such flows turn out to be predicted with considerable errors also on high-resolution grids. Inaccurate modelling of stratified turbulence is a main contributor to this error.     

华北回流天气多普勒雷达径向速度分布特征

使用多普勒雷达资料对四次华北回流天气过程进行了分析,结果表明:(1)回波具有较大水平范围的、连绵成片的均匀幕状特征.回波顶较平整,回流降雨过程中还存在零度层亮带.属层状云降水回波.(2)速度图上,在零速度线两侧常分布范围较大数值不等的正负径向速度中心,低空零速度线呈"S"型,风随高度顺时针旋转,有暖平流存在.在强降水时段出现前常伴有区域性的冷平流层.(3)风廓线图上,从低层到高层由东北风转为西南风,风向发生了近180度的顺时针旋转,存在强垂直切变.降水开始与结束时分别表现为低层偏东风与中高层西南气流叠加、低层偏东风与中高层西南气流任何一者消失.边界层顶部出现浅薄的冷平流层是降水强度加强的信号.     

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection (EUP) pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent (MC) region; positive (negative) precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific (MC). A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong (weak) SCSSM strengthens (weakens) cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool (warm) the SST around the MC through enhanced (reduced) surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling (warming) further leads to suppressed (enhanced) convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of El Ni?o (La Ni?a) through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.     

“低温雨雪冰冻”天气过程锋区特征分析

2008年年初低温雨雪冰冻期间(包括4次过程),冷暖气团长期对峙是"低温雨雪冰冻"天气持续的主要原因;准静止锋稳定、少动,锋面较平缓;等θse经向和垂直向梯度不断加强;冷暖气团形成的逆温很明显;主锋区前部上空存在多层锋区现象;锋区渐强,最强时在10个纬度内南北温差超过20℃;相对湿度≥90%的高湿度区的移动趋势、范围、垂直伸展高度均与4次过程吻合较好;锋生函数的分布与等θse密集区的分布一致,呈向北倾斜上升状,滇黔地区准静止锋区域内,多数时间段有锋生发生,华南地区上空静止少动的锋生中心,正是低温雨雪冰冻期间准静止锋长期稳定的原因之一;南北风交界线的移动趋势与低温雨雪冰冻过程趋势一致,4次过程都伴有偏南风低空急流;当副热带高空急流逐渐加强、水平风垂直切变加强并向下伸展时,低空急流加强;高位涡舌向下伸展,高纬度的高位涡舌与主锋区的中高层相对应,中纬度高位涡舌与副热带锋区对应;湿位涡斜压项PMV2量级较小,但其与,4次过程的对应关系非常好;锋区上界和下界等熵面上的气流能较好地反映准静止锋区上、下界特征;约290 K等熵面上(锋区下界以下)在贵州均为偏东气流,这是贵州及江南大部分地区长时间维持低层冷气团的主要原因.     

一次飑线过程多普勒雷达资料分析

利用济南CINRAD/SA多普勒雷达产品,针对2006年7月5日飑线天气过程,分析回波发展演变、流场结构,讨论外流边界、强下沉气流与大风的关系,分析组合反射率因子、垂直液态含水量、中气旋产品特征.结果发现,飑线过境时风速出现两个极大值,一个出现在外流边界影响时段,另一个发生在强回波下沉气流影响时段;在横槽南下过程中,飑线后部强入流不断补充,前侧暖湿气流沿着后部入流爬升,不断产生新的单体,使得风暴得以维持发展;在垂直流场结构上表现为前侧暖湿气流倾斜上升,然后主体部分向后倾斜,后部有冷空气注入,形成下沉气流,下沉气流在地面附近辐散,与前侧入流形成低层阵风锋,是造成地面破坏性大风的主要因素.在水平流场结构上表现为低层存在气流辐合上升运动,中层有气旋性旋转气流,风暴高层为辐散气流.飑线消散阶段后期中层出现MARC,带来大风天气,而同时伴有冰雹天气的风灾产生在飑线达到最强至开始减弱的时段.当回波强度≥50dBz,且垂直液态含水量≥35kg·m-2,当有中气旋时,有利于产生冰雹和大风天气;外流边界的出现,反映了强对流回波后部下沉气流较强,是灾害性大风的前兆.     

一次长寿命风暴的CINRAD/SA雷达反射率及中气旋产品特征与流场结构分析

利用济南观测站的探空、涡度、地面资料和CINRAD/SA雷达产品,对2004年6月24日发生在山东西部地区的强风暴过程进行了分析。结果表明,风暴低层存在中尺度辐合现象,风暴前侧的入流依靠后部低层冷空气池的向前推进而得到支撑,产生逆环境风切变方向的主上升气流区;中层为双涡旋结构,这种深厚的内部涡旋结构可与环境风相持,形成近似刚体的风暴柱,环境风绕风暴而过,不会吹穿风暴,有利于风暴长时间维持;风暴成熟阶段表现为超级单体结构特征并伴有中气旋;三体散射(TBSS)出现在中高层,TBSS出现10~15 min后地面出现大冰雹,TBSS消失后维持10~20 min的降雹。     

Effects of strong ground motion on the susceptibility of gully type debris flows

Typhoon Herb in 1996 caused widespread debris flows in central Taiwan. The 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake on September 21, 1999, which also took place in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in the region. These landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This research selects three regions which suffered a ground motion class of 5, 6, and 7 on the Richter scale during the Chi-Chi earthquake as study areas. Air photos from 1997 and 2001 of these regions are used to map the gully-type debris flows that took place after Typhoons Herb and Toraji, respectively. The gullies adjacent to the debris flow, but without a trace of debris flows, are also mapped as the non-debris flow data. The topography, hydrogeology, and rainfall factors – where debris flow occurred and in which there was no occurrence of debris flows in these gullies were retrieved from DTM, geological maps, and iso-countour maps, and of rainfall through GIS processing. These characteristic are introduced into a probabilistic neural network to build a predicting model for the probability of the occurrence of debris flows. Three series of cross analyses are conducted to compare the probability of the occurrence of debris flows of the same dataset predicted by different prediction models. The results reveal that the susceptibility of debris flows was elevated after the Chi-Chi earthquake struck. The upsurge of susceptibility was more obvious for the regions that received a higher class of ground motion.     

Decoupling between the middle and upper crust during transpression-related lateral flow: Variscan evolution of the Aston gneiss dome (Pyrenees, France)

We present a structural, AMS, microstructural and kinematic study of the Aston gneiss dome (French Pyrenees), which consists of a core made up of orthogneiss and paragneiss intruded by numerous sills of Carboniferous peraluminous granite. The orthogneiss corresponds to a former Ordovician granitic laccolith. Four Variscan events have been evidenced in this gneiss dome: (i) D1 deformation observed only as relics in the orthogneisses and their country-rocks located above the sillimanite isograd, and characterized by a NS to NE–SW non coaxial stretch associated to top to the south motions (NS convergence); (ii) D2-a deformation observed in the orthogneisses and their country-rocks, mainly migmatitic paragneisses, located below the sillimanite isograd and in the peraluminous granites whatever their structural level, and characterized by an EW to N120°E stretch associated to a top to the east flat shearing (lateral flow in the hot middle crust in a transpressive regime); (iii) D2-b deformation characterized by EW-trending megafolds corresponding to the domes in the middle crust and by EW-trending tight folds with subvertical axial planes in the metasedimentary upper crust; (iv) subvertical medium-temperature mylonitic bands developed by the end of the transpression.The Aston massif is a good example of decoupling between a cold upper crust and a hotter middle crust overheated by a thermal event originated in the upper mantle. This decoupling allowed the lateral flow of the migmatitic middle crust along a direction at high angle with respect to the more or less NS-trending direction of convergence. We suggest that the HT-LP metamorphism developed before the formation of the domes during D2-a, coevally with the emplacement of numerous sills of peraluminous granite, whereas the emplacement of the large calc-alkaline plutons in the upper crust occurred by the end of D2-b. Our data invalidate the previous geodynamical models based on either early or late extensional regime to explain the development of the HT-LP metamorphism. This new interpretation of the dynamics of the Variscan crust of the Pyrenees is consistent with recent studies conducted in Archaean and Palaeoproterozoic hot continental crusts having undergone oblique convergence, and characterized by a competition between vertical thickening and lateral flow induced by the important rheological contrast between two thermally different levels.     

基于CLG光学流和波场分解的逆时偏移角度道集提取方法研究

角度域共成像点道集是衔接叠前地震数据与储层特征的重要桥梁,对地震偏移成像与储层描述具有重要意义.与克希霍夫偏移和单向波动方程偏移相比,逆时偏移是复杂地区最精确的成像方法.高效稳健地生成逆时偏移角度道集目前仍然是一个挑战.本文主要讨论如何采用光学流方法高效、高质量地提取角度道集.在逆时偏移波场外推过程中,光学流方法可以估计波场传播方向.其中Lucas-Kanade(LK)和Horn-Schunck(HS)方法是光学流方法中两种典型的方法.LK光学流方法是一种局部方法,该方法依赖于局部点的梯度值,但是容易出现奇异现象,HS光学流方法属于全局方法,波场方向估计依赖于整个波场,易受噪声影响,对异常值比较敏感,导致整体波场方向计算精度不高.本文提出采用局部和整体结合(Combining Local and Global,CLG)的光学流方法估计波场传播方向.该方法可以有效地提高波场方向的精度,并且简单高效,便于并行处理.对比HS光学流方法,CLG光学流方法几乎不增加额外的计算量.另外,为了弱化光学流方法无法处理波前重叠问题,本文利用解析波场和方向滤波对波场进行方向分解,仅需波场的空间傅里叶变换即可实现任意波场方向分解,将分解后的波场分别估计波场反向,提取成像结果.进一步地,在估计反射张角和方位角时,本文提出有效的归一化方法和改进的最小二乘除法,提高角度估计的精度和稳定性.最后,理论和实际资料例证了本文提出方法的有效性.     

罗斯海海域大地水准面异常的成因研究

本文利用数值法求解瞬时地幔对流问题以模拟大地水准面异常.利用两个较新的S波速度异常层析模型SEMUCB_WM1和TX2019slab,将其转换为密度异常作为控制方程的浮力驱动项;采取的黏度结构模型中,上下地幔的黏度比为1∶50.为了研究地幔不同结构对罗斯海海域大地水准面异常的影响,分别提取上、下地幔的密度异常正/负值,作为对流控制方程的输入项,计算相应的模拟大地水准面异常.将模拟大地水准面异常与观测值进行对比,发现罗斯海海域的大地水准面异常主要来自下地幔及上地幔的负密度(波速)异常,下地幔正密度异常对该区域大地水准面负异常也有一定的贡献.本文认为,地幔密度负异常在罗斯海海域大地水准面异常的形成中占据主导作用,地幔对流的动力学效应对该区域大地水准面异常的形成影响较弱.