梅雨降水季节预测的多方法比较

基于1961—2000年逐月降水观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,分析了6—7月长江中下游(108°～123°E,27°～33°N)梅雨的时空分布特征。通过观测诊断和数值试验确定了影响梅雨异常偏多的3个前期因子:4—5月平均的西北太平洋海平面气压正异常;3月至5月北大西洋海平面气压负变压倾向;1月至4月西伯利亚的2 m温度负倾向。利用这3个具有物理意义的影响因子构建了梅雨季节预测模型,该模型在训练期(1961—2000年)和独立预测期(2001—2022年)均具有显著的预测技巧(相关系数分别为0.79和0.77,均方根误差分别为0.59和0.68)。同时,基于相似的潜在预测因子,对比了利用偏最小二乘回归方法和5种机器学习方法(随机森林、轻量级梯度提升机、自适应提升、类别型特征提升、极端梯度提升)建立的预测模型的技巧。虽然训练期(1961—2000年)偏最小二乘回归和机器学习建模拟合效果更高,但在独立预测期(2001—2022年)上述模型的预测技巧显著降低(相关系数均低于0.44,均方根误差均大于0.93),出现了明显的过拟合问题。本研究强调梅雨的短期气候预测应建立在物理机制基础之上,而使用机器学习方法需谨慎。     

Revisiting Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) trophodynamics provides a new vision of the Humboldt Current system

The Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) forages on plankton and is a main prey for marine mammals, seabirds, fish, and fishers, and is therefore a key element of the food web in the Humboldt Current system (HCS). Here, we present results from the analysis of 21,203 anchoveta stomach contents sampled during 23 acoustic surveys over the period 1996–2003. Prey items were identified to the genus level, and the relative dietary importance of different prey was assessed by determination of their carbon content. Variability in stomach fullness was examined relative to the diel cycle, the distance from the coast, sea surface temperature, and latitude, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Whereas phytoplankton largely dominated anchoveta diets in terms of numerical abundance and comprised >99% of ingested prey items, the carbon content of prey items indicated that zooplankton was by far the most important dietary component, with euphausiids contributing 67.5% of dietary carbon followed by copepods (26.3%). Stomach fullness data showed that anchoveta feed mainly during daytime between 07h00 and 18h00, although night-time feeding also made a substantial contribution to total food consumption. Stomach fullness also varied with latitude, distance from the coast, and temperature, but with substantial variability indicating a high degree of plasticity in anchoveta feeding behaviour. The results suggest an ecological role for anchoveta that challenges current understanding of its position in the foodweb, the functioning of the HCS, and trophic models of the HCS.     

Seagrass as the main food source of Neaxius acanthus (Thalassinidea: Strahlaxiidae), its burrow associates, and of Corallianassa coutierei (Thalassinidea: Callianassidae)

Burrows of the thalassinidean shrimps Neaxius acanthus and Corallianassa coutierei are striking aspects in tropical seagrass beds of the Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia. Burrow construction, behaviour, burrow type and associated commensal community were investigated to clarify the ecological role and food requirements of these shrimps and their commensals. Gut content analysis and stable-isotope data were used to unravel the food sources and the trophic interactions among the commensal community.Individuals of Neaxius acanthus were caught on Bone Batang Island. In narrow aquaria filled with sediment they constructed burrows resembling those found in the field. During burrow construction and maintenance only little sediment was brought to the surface, most was sorted and compacted to create a distinct lining. Maintenance work by single shrimps typically took about 5 min, after which the shrimp walked up to the entrance and rested for a similar period of time. There were no differences in behaviour between day and night. Intrasexual encounters inside the burrow were characterised by a high level of aggression and all resulted in one participant being driven out of the burrow. Intersexual encounters led to coexistence with both animals taking turns in burrow maintenance and guarding the entrance. Offered seagrass leaves were pulled underground, cut into pieces and eventually integrated into the lining. Burrows of Corallianassa coutierei resembled a deep U-shape. Chambers branching off halfway down and at the deepest point contained seagrass fragments. All steep parts of the burrow were lined similar to burrows of N. acanthus.No commensals were found associated with Corallianassa coutierei. However, burrows of Neaxius acanthus in the field typically contained a pair of shrimps, up to 8 individuals of the commensal bivalve Barrimysia cumingii and large numbers of gammarid amphipods. Other animals found associated with the burrow were the goby Austrolethops wardi, a palaemonid shrimp species and two species of tube-building polychaetes, one of which was also found as an epibiont on N. acanthus.Stable-isotope and gut content analyses indicate that the diet of Neaxius acanthus, its commensal Austrolethops wardi, and Corallianassa coutierei is mainly derived from detrital seagrass leaves, with a potential contribution of sediment organic matter and seagrass epiphytes. In contrast the isotopic signature of Barrimysia cumingii suggests the presence of symbiotic sulphide metabolism bacteria. This study underlines that, besides their interactions with the surrounding ecosystem, thalassinid shrimp burrows play an important role as a sub-habitat with a unique associated fauna.     

支持向量机在海洋随机资料分析中的应用

在随机海洋资料的分析中,需要从大量的实际数据中提取出有用的信息来建立或检验各种海洋理论模型,因此我们要正确运用适当的手段来分析处理各种实际数据。文中简要介绍了数据挖掘中一项新的技术支持向量机,着重介绍了最优化问题的求解算法,以及如何应用于海洋资料的分析处理。     

Behavioural adaptations in talitrids from two Atlantic beaches

The aim of the present study was to test sun orientation and rhythmic activity of two sandhopper populations from two Atlantic macro-tidal beaches. A population from Le Verger beach (orientated to 346°, Ille et Vilaine, Brittany, France) and a population from Damgan (orientated to 195°, Morbihan, Brittany, France), were tested on the beach under clear sky discriminating for landscape vision. For both populations locomotor activity rhythm was recorded in the laboratory. The two beaches differed for climatic features, tidal range and for human use. Both talitrid populations resulted very well orientated toward the shoreline, and both used solar position and landscape vision to orient. However the multiple regression analysis of orientation with climatic features showed a different use of local cues by the two populations and a slight influence of tidal regime (ebbing and rising tide), in spite of the supralittoral zonation of sandhoppers. In the laboratory they showed a well defined rhythmic behaviour as well as a bimodal rhythmicity, explained as a tidal one. These results are a new brick in the complex picture of orientation and rhythm studies on sandy beach invertebrates.     

基于Gabor变换和支持向量机的手写体字符识别算法

针对在手写字符识别中由于书写习惯和风格的不同造成字符模式不稳定的问题,将支持向量机SVM方法用于手写字符的识别.算法首先采用Gabor变换提取手写字符图像的特征参数,然后采用提取的特征训练SVM分类器.再应用SVM分类器分类和判别手写字符.实验表明这种方法具有良好的车牌识别效果,较强的鲁棒性,较大的应用价值.     

Impact Compressive Creep Characteristics of Simulative Soil for Deep-Sea Sediment

The impact load (equivalent impact height) applied to deep-sea sediment by a walking mining machine was first deduced by the energy conservation principle, and the simulative soil was prepared based on the deep-sea sediment collected from the Pacific C-C mining area. The self-designed impact compressive creep tests of the simulative soil were conducted under different ground stresses and impact heights, in order to determine impact compressive creep parameters using a K-H rheological model. Test results show that the impact compressive creep curves have three similar creep stages (transient creep, unstable creep, and stable creep) to static compressive creep curves, where the transient creep deformation and total deformation at the unstable creep stage decrease with the impact load. Among the three impact compressive creep parameters (K₁, K₂, β) of the simulative soil, K₁ is first increased with impact height and finally fluctuated to a certain stable value, while K₂ and β are approximately linearly increased with impact height. The maximum subsidence of the mining machine under a specific designed ground stress and walking velocity predicted by the impact compressive creep constitutive equation can be used for safety assessment of the mining machine.     

古尔班通古特沙漠灌木冠幅预测模型

古尔班通古特沙漠是中国第二大沙漠,也是中国固定和半固定沙丘主要分布区,固沙灌木种较多。冠幅不仅是反映固沙灌木可视化的重要参数,也是反映沙漠植被生长情况的重要变量。以3种沙丘（固定沙丘、半固定沙丘和流动沙丘）上主要固沙灌木为研究对象,利用12种基础模型、BP(Backpropagation Neural Network)神经网络和支持向量机（Support Vector Machine,SVM）机器学习算法建立了基于固沙灌木株高和冠长率的冠幅预测模型,同时将两种机器学习算法拟合结果与基础模型进行比较,最终选出了适合研究区的冠幅预测模型。结果表明：（1）不同沙丘类型和不同灌木种类的最优冠幅预测模型不同,且固定沙丘和半固定沙丘模型优于流动沙丘。3种沙丘类型最优拟合为M2(Quadratic Model)模型;（2）白梭梭（Haloxylon persicum）在半固定沙丘和流动沙丘上拟合的最优模型分别为M2、M7(Gompertz),沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）最优模型为M2,蛇麻黄（Ephedra distachya）和油蒿（Artemisia ordosica）在...     

Limpets as prey: Lipophrys pholis choice for size

Patellid limpets are key species on rocky shores, structuring intertidal assemblages through their grazing. Their role as prey for fish is, however, often overlooked in studies of intertidal ecosystem functioning. The shanny Lipophrys pholis is a common predator of limpets on rocky shores in Northern Europe and, in this study, we examined the characteristics of its predation on limpets based on prey size. The limpet size range that adult L. pholis (10–12.5 cm) can eat was examined in the laboratory using Patella depressa in 0.2 cm classes, varying between 0.5 cm and 3.0 cm in maximum shell length. There was a limpet size refuge above 1.8 cm, while all smaller sizes were readily consumed by the shanny. The predator attacking behaviour was also examined and found to vary with prey size. Limpets up to 0.8 cm were crushed by the jaw‐constricting force and eaten whole, whereas larger prey were prised from the substratum and the body subsequently separated from the shell. To examine whether there was a L. pholis preference for P. depressa size, a two‐stage laboratory experiment was done using two size classes defined as small (0.7–0.8 cm maximum shell length) and large (1.5–1.6 cm maximum shell length). In the first stage, the predator was given each limpet size class separately. In the second stage, the fish was given a choice between the two classes. Lipophrys pholis was shown to have a preference for the large size class (1.5–1.6 cm). The average number of limpets consumed by the shanny was examined for the duration of one high‐tide typical of the central region of Portugal (≈ 4 h). On average, approximately five limpets (up to an eight limpet maximum) were consumed. The present study shows that L. pholis has a feeding preference based on limpet size, which suggests that the limpet population structure and intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions may be influenced by the shanny predation.