2016年苍梧MS 5.4地震活动、震害特征及应急对策

2016年7月31日苍梧M_S 5.4地震的发生,标志着东南沿海地震带第5活跃幕的开始。通过该地震序列、震源机制、强震动记录、地震地质背景,地震灾害及震前异常变化,分析此次M_S 5.4地震活动及震害特征,为广西地区强震震后趋势判断、强震响应提供依据,并对地震前后采用的应急对策及发挥的作用进行论述。     

中国大陆历史地震烈度统计

为研究中国地震烈度评定的时空分布特征,对中国大陆1966年以来464个地震的烈度数据进行统计,分析长期以来不同震级的震中烈度及灾区面积评定随时间的变化趋势,并对比中国东部和西部地区间的差异。结果表明：对于震级相同的地震,震中烈度和灾区范围的评定均存在波动,且在不同震级区间和不同时间阶段,波动的显著程度也有所不同。此外,中国东部和西部地区地震烈度评定虽然存在差异,但随着震级增大,差异逐渐减小。     

佛坪站址迁移对气象要素均一性的影响

本文利用德国OTT公司生产的Parsivel激光降水粒子谱仪取得的资料,对汾阳2008年7月17日的一次层积混合云降水过程的雨滴谱资料进行详细分析.计算了地面雨滴谱的特征值,并结合雷达资料进行了相关的分析研究,得到了有意义的研究结论.     

厦门新阳工业区工程场地地震危险性分析

本文通过区域地震活动性的研究，运用危险性概率计算模型，对工程场地进行了地震危险性分析计算。根据一般工业与民用建筑抗震设计规范５０年超越１０％概率的要求。确定出场地的基本烈度和最大基岩峰加速度值。     

New OSL dating of UK loess: indications of two phases of Late Glacial dust accretion in SE England and climate implications

Windblown dust deposits or loess, locally known in the UK as brickearth, blanket many parts of southern England outside the limits of the British and Irish Ice Sheet. The best‐studied loess exposures occur in Kent, southeast England, where the deposits are believed to be Late Glacial in age. New sedimentological evidence is presented for phases of accretion with two distinct units, a calcareous brickearth exhibiting periglacial cryoturbation and a non‐calcareous, massive brickearth. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating has been applied to chemically isolated modal quartz silts to derive a chronology for sediment accretion and to better understand the palaeoclimatic significance of these deposits. © British Geological Survey/Natural Environment Research Council copyright 2007. Reproduced with the permission of BGS/NERC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川震区暴雨泥石流激发雨型特征

汶川地震后暴雨诱发的泥石流不断增加,通过收集整理降雨资料,分析汶川震区不同地域泥石流暴发的激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量变化过程,揭示震区暴雨泥石流的激发雨型特征,为暴雨泥石流的预报提供科学依据。研究结果表明,汶川震区的暴雨泥石流激发雨型可分为短期突然降雨型、中期持续降雨型和长期间断降雨型3种类型,主要表现为引发泥石流的激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量的不同。暴雨泥石流的形成机制体现为降雨导致流域内松散土体渗透、饱和及侵蚀移动的过程。激发雨型与激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量存在相关关系,短期突然降雨型的激发雨强最大,前期有效累计降雨量最少;中期持续降雨型的激发雨强居中,前期有效累计降雨量最多;长期间断降雨型的激发雨强最小,前期有效累计降雨量居中。对四川茂县叠溪镇新磨村突发山体高位垮塌碎屑流进行验证,初步判定是由长期间断降雨型引发岩体抗剪强度降低而引起的。对不同激发雨型特征的研究能够为汶川震区泥石流监测预警提供科学依据。     

机载激光雷达平面精度评价方法研究

目前,机载激光雷达数据的高程精度一般在10～20 cm,平面精度为0.5～1 m,所以大多学者和生产厂家关注高程精度较多,故而高程精度的评价方法相对成熟,而平面精度的评价方法则有待完善。本文介绍的几种方法,立足于实际工作中发现的问题,具体情况具体分析,旨在能寻求最接近平面精度真值的表达方法,为将来平面精度评价成熟而通用的方法寻求道路。     

Book Review

Abstract

The instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) of a watershed is the result of one instantaneous unit of rainfall excess distributed uniformly over the watershed. Although the geomorphological characteristics of the basin remain relatively constant, the variable characteristics of storms cause variations in the shape of the resulting hydrographs. It is, therefore, inadequate to use one typical IUH to represent the hydrological response generated from any specific storm. In this study, a variable IUH was derived that directly reflects the time-varying rainfall intensity during storms. The rainfall intensity used to generate the variable IUH at time t is the mean rainfall intensity occurring from the time t—T _c to t in which T _c is the watershed time of concentration. Hydrological records from three watersheds in Taiwan were used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The results show that better simulations can be obtained by using the proposed model than by using the conventional unit hydrograph method, especially for concentrated rainstorm cases.     

Utilization of the non-fossil fuel target and its implications in China

China has pledged to meet a series of political targets on energy and environmental performance, including a target of a 15% non-fossil fuel share in total energy use by 2020. Achieving this target requires expansion of non-fossil energy and restraining energy use, which has implications for achieving the 40–45% carbon intensity reduction target. The present study outlines quantitative formulas to measure the nexus between the dynamics of GDP, energy, and carbon intensity. Considering a ‘likely’ scenario of the non-fossil fuel expansion envisioned by the Chinese government and a GDP growth rate of 8% per annum, the key to accomplishing both targets is to restrain energy consumption to attain an energy elasticity to GDP of approximately 0.53. Both targets can be achieved simultaneously with the existing non-fossil expansion plan and are within the ‘normal’ range of GDP growth seen in China over the long term. This is, however, less than the value realized over the last 10 years. To comply with the non-fossil fuel target, the potentially slower expansion of nuclear power capacity must be compensated for by other non-fossil options. Otherwise, there must be a greater attempt to decouple energy demand and economic growth in order to realize a smaller energy elasticity to GDP.

Policy relevance

China has pledged to achieve a 15% non-fossil fuel share and reduce its carbon intensity by 40–45% by 2020. The key to accomplishing both targets is to restrain energy consumption and promote the development of non-fossil fuels. The achievement of these two targets by 2020 is analysed between share of non-fossil fuel, CO₂ intensity of energy and GDP, and energy elasticity in relation to GDP. This analysis can inform the governmental energy and climate policy on the scale and pace of non-fossil fuel development, and the prerequisite regarding the energy elasticity to GDP to achieve the targets. The impacts of slower expansion of nuclear power capacity on the target achievement and implied elasticity of energy to GDP are also provided, which is close to the policy choice and actions of government on energy saving and emissions reduction.     

基于KPCA的台风强度神经网络集合预报方法研究

针对影响台风强度前期预报因子较多以及因子的非线性变化特点,首先采用逐步回归方法筛选出部分预报因子,再利用核主成分分析方法在剩余的预报因子中提取包含了原数据较多信息的核主成分与前期选入的预报因子共同作为模型输入.进一步考虑到神经网络集合预报中个体的准确性和差异性的权衡问题,在不同的初始条件下生成若干组神经网络,分别选择每组中性能最优的个体,建立了一种新的非线性神经网络集合预报模型.最后以西北太平洋海域2001-2010年5-10月的台风强度为研究对象进行了预报试验.结果表明,这种神经网络集合预报模型的预报结果符合实际应用的要求,其预报平均绝对误差明显小于同等条件下的神经网络方法和逐步回归预报方法.