The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996.     

A Critical Note on ‘Eco‐Civic Regionalisation’ as the Basis for Local Government Boundaries in Australia

The notion of ‘eco‐civic regionalisation’ has been applied recently to New South Wales by Brunckhorst, Coop and Reeve (2004 Brunckhorst D Coop P Reeve I 2004 An eco‐civic regionalisation for rural New South Wales: final report to the NSW government Institute for Rural Futures and Centre for Bioregional Resource Management, University of New England, Armidale  [Google Scholar]) in order to identify the appropriate administrative boundaries for ‘socio‐civic’ regions and ‘biophysical’ regions. On the basis of this analysis, they recommended inter alia that 49 future non‐metropolitan ‘local government areas’ be established. This proposal was adopted with alacrity by advocates of the NSW government's program of compulsory council amalgamation, including official ‘Facilitators’ appointed by the State government to draft formal consolidation proposals. This paper disputes the applicability of ‘eco‐civic regionalisation’ as the foundation for local government boundaries in Australia.     

一类非线性奇异边值问题的解的存在性

本文研究了如下的高阶奇异边值问题解的存在性ｙ（ｎ）＋ｆ（ｔ，ｙ，ｙ＇，．．．，ｙ（ｎ－２））＝０，ｎ≥２，０＜ｔ＜１，ｙ（ｉ）（０）＝０，０≤ｉ≤＜ｎ－２，ｙ（ｎ－１）（１）＝０其中，ｆ（ｔ，ｙ１，．．．，ｙｍ－１）在ｙｉ＝０处有奇性，ｉ＝１，．．．，ｎ－１。我们给出了该问题解存在的一个新的充分条件     

随机集值映射的一个不动点定理

随机不动点定理在随机泛函分析中起重要作用。最近,随机集值映射的不动点定理得到了广泛地研究。本文研究具有随机定义域的随机集值映射的一个新的不动点定理,这一定理推广了S.Reich等人的重要结果。     

Inferring trip purposes and uncovering travel patterns from taxi trajectory data

Global positioning system-enabled vehicles provide an efficient way to obtain large quantities of movement data for individuals. However, the raw data usually lack activity information, which is highly valuable for a range of applications and services. This study provides a novel and practical framework for inferring the trip purposes of taxi passengers such that the semantics of taxi trajectory data can be enriched. The probability of points of interest to be visited is modeled by Bayes’ rules, which take both spatial and temporal constraints into consideration. Combining this approach with Monte Carlo simulations, we conduct a study on Shanghai taxi trajectory data. Our results closely approximate the residents’ travel survey data in Shanghai. Furthermore, we reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of nine daily activity types based on inference results, including their temporal regularities, spatial dynamics, and distributions of trip lengths and directions. In the era of big data, we encounter the dilemma of “trajectory data rich but activity information poor” when investigating human movements from various data sources. This study presents a promising step toward mining abundant activity information from individuals’ trajectories.     

加筋路堤临界高度上限分析

依据加筋理论,假定加筋路堤边坡的破裂面为对数螺旋面,运用极限分析的上限原理推导加筋路堤临界高度的上限解。在不计加筋力时,该解与无筋路堤的临界高度一致。结合算例,得出加筋能提高路堤临界高度的结论。     

Wellbore flow‐rate solution for a constant‐head test in two‐zone finite confined aquifers

The solution describing the wellbore flow rate in a constant‐head test integrated with an optimization approach is commonly used to analyze observed wellbore flow‐rate data for estimating the hydrogeological parameters of low‐permeability aquifers. To our knowledge, the wellbore flow‐rate solution for the constant‐head test in a two‐zone finite‐extent confined aquifer has never been reported so far in the literature. This article is first to develop a mathematical model for describing the head distribution in the two‐zone aquifer. The Laplace domain solutions for the head distributions and wellbore flow rate in a two‐zone finite confined aquifer are derived using the Laplace transform, and their corresponding time domain solutions are then obtained using the Bromwich integral method and residue theorem. These new solutions are expressed in terms of an infinite series with Bessel functions and not straightforward to calculate numerically. A large‐time solution for the wellbore flow rate is therefore developed by employing the relationship of small Laplace variable versus large time variable and L'Hospital's rule. The result shows that the large‐time solution is identical to the steady‐state solution obtained after applying the Tauberian theorem into the Laplace domain solution. This large‐time solution can reduce to the Thiem equation in the case of no skin. Finally, the newly developed solution is used to investigate the effects of outer boundary distance and conductivity ratio on the wellbore flow rate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

时态GIS中的线面父子关系及其判定规则

通过对线面父子关系存在条件的分析,给出了一个线面父子关系的判定规则,对于准确查找面状、线状地物的父子地物的问题有较好的实用价值。     

双圆盾构穿越下立交结构的流-固耦合数值模拟

依托上海轨道交通M10线双圆盾构区间隧道工程,对自由场下双圆盾构隧道施工力学行为进行三维有限差分数值模拟,分析了盾构施工地表沉降及超孔隙水压力的特征、量值与范围,并与监测结果进行对比,以得到能够反映施工技术水平的模拟施工参数。将该模拟施工参数应用于下立交下双圆盾构的推进,用以预测盾构掘进对下立交底板的影响。研究结果表明,在三面封闭的条件下,盾构施工引起的正超孔压很难向外界消散、负超孔压也很难得到外界水位的补给;在开挖面前方,底板受到挤压力,且挤压力主要由超孔隙水压力组成;沿横向方向,作用在下立交底板下的超孔隙水压力分布较均匀,而土体颗粒的挤压力则主要分布在其中线附近;下立交结构的刚性位移是引起底板沉降的主要原因,底板变形引起的沉降较小,变形最大值在盾尾脱离时取得。     

关于“不动点的单调原理”的条件的修正(英文)

Taskovic,M R于1985年建立的“不动点的单调原理”,经作者证明是错误的。本文以另外的条件来代替“不动点的单调原理”中的所谓“AT—型条件”,建立了相应的不动点定理。该定理是某些重要结果的进一步推广。