AEKF在星敏感器低频误差补偿中的应用

高分辨率对地观测卫星需要精确的姿态信息来满足后续对地定位等工作,因此姿态确定精度十分重要。星敏感器的低频误差是影响卫星姿态确定精度的重要因素之一,主要是由空间周期性的热环境变化引起的。为进一步提高卫星姿态确定精度,对星敏感器的低频误差产生机理即星敏感器主光轴做周期性扰动进行了分析,设计了星敏感器低频误差补偿方案,建立了考虑星敏感器低频误差在内的组合定姿模型,利用拓维卡尔曼滤波(AEKF)对低频误差进行补偿,并引入RTS平滑滤波进一步提高姿态确定精度。仿真实验表明,设计的星敏感器低频误差补偿方案能有效对其进行补偿,提高卫星姿态确定精度。     

The impact of deformation on vortex development in a baroclinic moist atmosphere

A mathematical relation between deformation and vertical vorticity tendency is built by introducing the frontogenesis function and the complete vertical vorticity equation, which is derived by virtue of moist potential vorticity. From the mathematical relation, it is shown that properly configured atmospheric conditions can make deformation exert a positive contribution to vortex development at rates comparable to other favorable factors. The effect of deformation on vortex development is not only related to the deformation itself, but also depends on the current thermodynamic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, such as the convective stability, moist baroclinicity and vertical wind shear(or horizontal vorticity). A diagnostic study of a heavy-rainfall case that occurred during 20–22 July 2012 shows that deformation has the most remarkable effect on the increase in vertical vorticity during the rapid development stage of the low vortex during its whole life cycle. This feature is mainly due to the existence of an approximate neutral layer(about 700 h Pa) in the atmosphere where the convective stability tends to be zero. The neutral layer makes the effect of deformation on the vertical vorticity increase significantly during the vortex development stage, and thus drives the vertical vorticity to increase.     

基于贝叶斯模型的中国未来气温变化预估及不确定性分析

利用第5次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中35个全球气候模式历史模拟与RCP4.5预估结果,通过贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)对中国气温进行多模式集合研究,给出了中国未来气温变化预估及其不确定性的时空分布。结果表明,中国21世纪冬夏将持续升温,且升温具有冬季高于夏季,北方高于南方的特点。初期(2016—2035年)北方有很大可能(80%)升温超过0.7℃,南方升温相同幅度的概率则超过50%;中期(2046—2065年)北方和南方升温超过1.5℃的概率分别为80%和50%;末期(2081—2100年),北方(南方)有80%(50%)的可能的升温超过2℃。气温预估的不确定性研究发现,无论冬夏,21世纪不同时期升温相对较弱的塔里木盆地、青藏高原南侧和中国东南地区为不确定性低值区,基本低于0.6℃,对应可信度较高,如21世纪初期信噪比超过4;而不确定性的高值区则主要分布在新疆北部、东北平原北部和青藏高原东南侧等升温相对较大的地区,普遍高于1℃,对应可信度较低,如初期信噪比低于2.5。此外,基于信噪比对比发现除青藏高原东部外,其他区域夏季预估的可信度均高于冬季,21世纪末期高于初期,且空间分布特征一致。     

Searching for Added Value in Simulating Climate Extremes with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model over Western Canada

We evaluate the capacity of a regional climate model to represent observed extreme temperature and precipitation events and also examine the impact of increased resolution, in an effort to identify added value in this respect. Two climate simulations of western Canada (WCan) were conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4) at 15 (CRCM15) and 45?km (CRCM45) horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) for the period 1973–1995. The simulations were evaluated using the spline-interpolated dataset ANUSPLIN, a daily observational gridded surface temperature and precipitation product with a nominal resolution of approximately 10?km. We examine a range of climate extremes, comprising the 10th and 90th percentiles of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures, the 90th percentile of daily precipitation (PR90), and the 27 core Climate Daily Extremes (CLIMDEX) indices.

Both simulations exhibit cold biases compared with observations over WCan, with the bias exacerbated at higher resolution, suggesting little added value for temperature overall. There are instances, however, of regional improvement in the spatial pattern of temperature extremes at the higher resolution of CRCM15 (e.g., the CLIMDEX index for the annual number of days when TX?>?25°C). The high-resolution simulations also reveal similarly localized features in precipitation (e.g., rain shadows) that are not resolved at the 45?km resolution. With regard to precipitation extremes, although both simulations generally display wet biases, CRCM15 features a reduced bias in PR90 in all seasons except winter. This improvement occurs despite the fact that spatial and interannual variability of PR90 in CRCM15 is significantly overestimated relative to both CRCM45 and ANUSPLIN. We posit that these characteristics are the result of demonstrable differences between corresponding topographical datasets used in the gridded observations and CRCM, the resulting errors propagated to physical variables tied to elevation and the beneficial effect of subsequent spatial averaging. Because topographical input is often discordant between simulations and gridded observations, it is argued that a limited form of spatial averaging may contribute added value beyond that which has already been noted in previous studies with respect to small-scale climate variability.     

基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势

近百年来,全球气候变暖。这与暖日和暖夜增加,冷日和冷夜减少相关联。文章研究结果进一步证实了这一发现。本文基于1960-2012年中国大陆542个台站均一化气温资料,通过将中国大陆划分为8个次区域,利用百分位定义法计算了极端温度指数序列,同时,运用时间趋势分析法,对中国大陆各区域极端温度和极端温度指数的时空分布及变化趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,从地理分布而言,中国大陆在过去53年除西南地区外,大部分地区最低和最高温度有显著的升高趋势,其中,东北温度升高最为明显;从季节而言,冬季极端温度升高最为明显,夏季升高最少;最低温度明显升高,最高温度也有所升高,但是最低温度的升高幅度更大。冷夜和冷日出现频率呈减少趋势,暖夜和暖日出现频率呈增加趋势,其中以冷夜指数变化最为突出,均呈现一种区域差异的现象。本文利用更新的资料验证了前人的工作,也进一步分区分析,结果可为更多地区评估以及进一步的相关研究提供参考。     

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.     

中国夏季气温对东亚土壤湿度异常响应的统计评估

基于欧亚夏季土壤湿度变化特征及其与中国夏季气温的相关分析,选取东亚地区作为土壤湿度异常影响中国夏季气温的陆面关键区,采用广义平衡反馈分析方法(GEFA)探讨了我国夏季气温对东亚地区土壤湿度异常的可能响应,并初步讨论了相关的物理过程。结果表明:中国夏季气温与东亚地区初夏和同期的土壤湿度异常具有密切的联系;进一步分析表明,夏季气温距平场对土壤湿度第一模态的响应最显著:当东亚中纬度及我国东部地区土壤湿度异常偏干时,夏季气温表现为一致增暖;而土壤湿度第二模态对长江流域至我国西部地区的气温有较弱的强迫作用;气温对第三模态的响应主要表现为华南地区的显著降温。并以对气温影响最为显著的土壤湿度异常第一模态为例,初步探讨了气温对土壤湿度异常响应的可能物理过程。当贝加尔湖以南以及我国东部的土壤偏干时,地表异常加热容易引起我国北方高层大气出现明显正异常和低层的反气旋性异常环流,上述环流异常容易导致温度偏高,同时不利于该区域降水的发生,进而导致土壤湿度偏低,上述正反馈机制可能是该区域土壤湿度与大气之间联系的一种可能途径。     

青藏高原和亚洲夏季风动力学研究的新进展

亚洲夏季风环流受海陆和伊朗高原—青藏高原大地形的热力作用调控.亚洲季风所释放的巨大潜热又对大气环流形成反馈.这种相互反馈过程十分复杂,揭示其物理过程对理解气候变化格局的形成和变化以及提高天气预报及气候预测的准确率十分重要.夏季北半球副热带对流层上层环流的主要特征是存在庞大的南亚高压(SAH)以及强大的对流层上层温度暖中心(UTTM).本文介绍了温度—加热垂直梯度(T-Q_Z)理论的发展,并用以揭示SAH和UTTM的形成机制.指出沿副热带欧亚大陆东部的季风对流潜热加热及其中西部的表面感热加热和高层长波辐射冷却是导致SAH和UTTM在南亚上空发展的原因.文中还介绍了Gill模型用于上部对流层研究的局限性及解决的办法.     

强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。     

1999年北京持续高温天气过程的诊断分析

利用北京观象台观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对1999年6月24日至7月2日北京一次持续性高温天气的演变和发展过程及非绝热加热作用对系统的影响进行诊断分析,结果表明：在此次高温天气发生前,欧亚大陆中高纬度环流经向度很大,欧洲北部和贝加尔湖以南为高压脊控制,中亚和我国东北地区则处于低压槽内。贝加尔湖南部的高压脊纬向延伸范围较广,在东移过程中长时间影响北京。随着贝加尔湖以南的高压脊逐渐东移,北京上空下沉增温与非绝热加热作用有所增强,北京逐渐受到高温天气影响。在高温天气发生的后半阶段,我国东北的低压槽入海后在120130°E附近维持并发展,槽前非绝热加热率很大。从垂直方向来看,加热率在500 hPa以下随高度迅速增加,根据全型涡度方程,强烈的非绝热加热率垂直分布不均作为一个明显的涡度源区,对入海低压槽的稳定维持有显著的作用。而入海低压槽的稳定维持,又阻碍了华北高压脊的东移,使其在北京地区长时间稳定少动,为北京带来多日的持续性高温天气。