论VAM的适宜时间

垂直角观测(vAM)的质量与作业时间有关.通过对大气折光角及其起伏的日变化规律的分析,提出了一种根据动态照准误差确定vAM的有利与不利时间的方法.与传统的观点相比较,采用该法确定的适宜时间将具有更高的参考价值.     

GPS载波定位中双差观测值权的合理确定

在GPS载波定位中双差观测值权的确定较为重要,本文在简要介绍了两种常规定权方法之后首次提出了“高度角定权法”,并以某大型水电站的实测数据分析了三种定权方法对基线坐标解算结果精度的影响,数据结果清楚地表明本文提出的“高度角定权”能有效地提高基线坐标解算结果的精度。     

单排微型桩加固碎石土滑坡物理模型试验

微型桩因其自身优势被广泛使用,但有关其抗滑机理的理论研究相对较少.首先对模型桩的力学特性进了标定试验,获得其弹塑性工作阶段的弹性模量,分别为0.69×104 MPa和0.04×104 MPa;再通过不同桩间距下单排微型桩加固碎石土滑坡室内模型试验,研究微型桩抗滑机理.试验结果表明:不同桩间距下单排微型桩桩后土压力主要集中在滑面以上1/3桩身范围内;桩间距较小,土拱效应越明显,微型桩抗滑失效的最大临界弯矩越大,微型桩能承受的滑坡推力越大,抗滑效果越好.     

中国东南屯溪-温州宽角地震资料去广角效应成像

由于长排列广角地震采集中必定存在超临界角的广角反射信息,广角反射信息相对临界角内反射信息存在随偏移距变化的时移现象.本文研究了去广角效应下的走时反演成像,并将其应用到东南屯溪—温州的宽角地震资料.通过拾取中国东南屯溪—温州剖面宽角实际地震资料中P波垂直分量拾取到的反射P波走时,继而使用遗传反演方法进行处理,得到了该区丰乐、新安江、松阳、青田以及洞头五炮去广角效应与未考虑广角效应情况下的一维速度深度曲线,并对比了去广角效应前后的地壳结构界面形态.结果表明,广角效应去除前后影响主要体现在壳内层速度差异,地壳浅层界面深度的广角效应明显强于深层界面.     

基于结构导向的梯度属性边缘检测技术

地震数据中的不连续性检测对于识别和刻画地下地质体边界具有重要意义.随着勘探目标向岩性油藏和复杂断块油藏的转变,解释人员需要对小断裂、微裂缝等微幅地质体边界信息进行精细刻画.常规边缘检测算子由于算法的局限性不能满足上述需求.本文通过引入能量归一化和沿层检测思想对常规检测算子进行改进,提出一种基于结构导向的梯度属性边缘检测技术.该技术通过结构张量估计得到局部地层区域的倾角和方位角,利用得到的倾角和方位角信息作为约束,使用二维边缘检测算子实现三维数据中的沿层不连续性检测.经过实际资料处理,并与结构导向方差属性对比分析,证实该方法在地层不连续性检测方面具有很好效果,检测得到的不连续性信息在细节上表现更丰富,可以作为地层横向差异和地质体边界识别的有力工具.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Application of a multi‐temporal,LiDAR‐derived,digital terrain model in a landslide‐volume estimation

Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km² study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (V_L = 0.452A_L^1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (V_L = 2.510A_L^1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >10⁵ m² is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of direct statistical and indirect statistical-deterministic frameworks in downscaling river low-flow indices

ABSTRACT

This work explores the ability of two methodologies in downscaling hydrological indices characterizing the low flow regime of three salmon rivers in Eastern Canada: Moisie, Romaine and Ouelle. The selected indices describe four aspects of the low flow regime of these rivers: amplitude, frequency, variability and timing. The first methodology (direct downscaling) ascertains a direct link between large-scale atmospheric variables (the predictors) and low flow indices (the predictands). The second (indirect downscaling) involves downscaling precipitation and air temperature (local climate variables) that are introduced into a hydrological model to simulate flows. Synthetic flow time series are subsequently used to calculate the low flow indices. The statistical models used for downscaling low flow hydrological indices and local climate variables are: Sparse Bayesian Learning and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that direct downscaling using Sparse Bayesian Learning surpassed the other approaches with respect to goodness of fit and generalization ability.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed     

Modified fish-bone model: A simplified MDOF model for simulation of seismic responses of moment resisting frames

This paper presents a simplified Multi-Degree-Of-Freedom (MDOF) model through modification of fish-bone model (or generic frame). Modified Fish-Bone (MFB) model is developed through three enhancements: (i) the moment of inertia for half-beams is reduced slightly to modify the assumption of equal rotation at each story joints, (ii) a number of truss elements are inserted to the fish-bone model to simulate flexural deformation of moment frames due to axial elongation and contraction of columns, and (iii) moment–rotation relationship of representative rotational springs is supposed to be bilinear instead of trilinear in order to consider simultaneous yielding at both ends of the beam in moment frames. The proposed model is evaluated with respect to nonlinear dynamic analysis results of three classic moment resisting frames subjected to 94 records of FEMA-440 ground motion data set. Moreover, the adequacy of this model is compared with the fish-bone model and two predictors of nonlinear seismic demand. The statistical study of predicted interstory drift demonstrates the superiority of the proposed model over the fish-bone model and both seismic demand predictors.     

甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震发生日期的触发因素分析及对短临预测方法的思考

短临预报是目前地震预测的难点,通过对2013年甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震发生日期的研究,发现发生日期7月22日是节气、低点位移、异年倍七律和朔望共同作用的时间点。据此,本文用一些基于可能触发地震发生的非传统方法的时间预测方法,回顾性地讨论了甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震发生日期的临震日期预测问题。通过对岷县漳县MS6.6地震研究,认为在地震短临日期的预测上。一些非传统方法虽然在机理上还有待研究,但在统计上多次证明该方法具有预测准确性的效能。要基于传统方法与非传统方法结合,才能对临震预测的时间逼近,同时提出今后预测临震时间的思路:多因素不断拦截法。