低渗透储层孔隙结构影响因素及其定量评价——以准噶尔盆地金龙2地区二叠系上乌尔禾组二段为例

利用薄片、扫描电镜、物性及压汞等资料,对金龙2地区三叠系上乌尔禾组二段(P_3w_2)低渗(含砾)砂岩储层孔隙结构及其影响因素进行了研究。结果表明:①乌二段属于低孔低渗储层,根据压汞曲线参数特征,将其孔隙结构划分为三类。②成岩作用控制了储层孔隙结构,定量计算结果表明,乌二段视压实率平均为53.54%、视胶结率平均为47.53%、视溶蚀率平均为13.84%、视微孔隙率平均为60.67%,表现为中等压实、中—强胶结、弱溶蚀、微孔发育等特征;压实作用、胶结作用、微孔隙发育主要控制储层孔隙结构的形成。③引入成岩综合指数来定量表征各种成岩作用的综合强度,其与储层孔隙结构参数(排驱压力、分选系数)以及储层品质因子(RQI)具有较好的统计相关关系,Ⅰ类储层成岩综合指数大于8%,Ⅱ类储层成岩综合指数为2%～8%,Ⅲ类储层成岩综合指数小于2%。因此,可以利用成岩综合指数定量评价储层孔隙结构。     

我国西北地区21世纪季节气候变化情景分析

使用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)数据分发中心提供的7个全球海气耦合气候系统模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR)的模拟结果,对我国西北地区未来21世纪考虑温室气体增加(GG)和温室气体与硫化物气溶胶共同影响(GS)时,冬夏季的气候变化情景进行了分析.模式集成结果分析表明,我国西北地区的变暖趋势与全球、东亚和中国一致,但变暖幅度明显高于全球、东亚和中国.对未来100年各个季节线性倾向的分析表明,西北地区GG和GS时都是冬季变暖最大,可高达5～8℃/100a,且整个西北地区中新疆地区为最大变暖区.21世纪由于人类活动,西北地区最低温度和最高温度都将明显升高,其线性趋势可达4～6℃/100 a.由于全球气候模式对区域尺度的模拟存在较大的不确定性,未来需要作更多的深入研究.     

BDS卫星差分码偏差稳定性分析及其短期预报

利用MGEX(multi-GNSS experiment)发布的BDS卫星差分码偏差(differential code bias, DCB)产品，比较分析不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB产品的稳定性变化特性，并采用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)时间序列预测模型，实现不同太阳活动水平下BDS卫星DCB的短期预报。结果表明，在太阳活动高年，BDS卫星DCB日解值稳定度、月稳定性均明显低于太阳活动低年，且不同卫星星座类型的BDS卫星DCB稳定性也存在差异；ARIMA时间序列预报结果与MGEX发布值符合程度较好，优于多项式拟合法预测结果。     

A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments

Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A geomorphology‐based integrated stream–aquifer interaction model for semi‐gauged catchments

Many of the existing stream–aquifer interaction models available in the literature are very complex with limited applicability in semi‐gauged and ungauged catchments. In this study, to estimate the influent and effluent subsurface water fluxes under limited geo‐hydrometeorological data availability conditions, a simple stream–aquifer interaction model, namely, the variable parameter McCarthy–Muskingum (VPMM) hillslope‐storage Boussinesq (hsB) model, has been developed. This novel model couples the VPMM streamflow transport with the hsB groundwater flow transport modules in online mode. In this integrated model, the surface water–groundwater flux exchange process is modelled by the Darcian approach with the variable hydraulic heads between the river stage and groundwater table accounting for the rainfall forcing. Considering the exchange fluxes in the hyporheic zone and lateral overland flow contribution, this approach is field tested in a typical 48‐km stretch of the Brahmani River in eastern India to simulate the streamflow and its depth with the minimum Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 94% and 88%; the maximum root mean square error of 134 m³/s and 0.35 m; and the minimum index of agreement of 98% and 97%, respectively. This modelling approach could be very well utilized in data‐scarce world‐river basins to estimate the stream–aquifer exchange flux due to rainfall forcings.     

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.     

Low‐accommodation and backwater effects on sequence stratigraphic surfaces and depositional architecture of fluvio‐deltaic settings (Cretaceous Mesa Rica Sandstone,Dakota Group,USA)

The adequate documentation and interpretation of regional‐scale stratigraphic surfaces is paramount to establish correlations between continental and shallow marine strata. However, this is often challenged by the amalgamated nature of low‐accommodation settings and control of backwater hydraulics on fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy. Exhumed examples of full‐transect depositional profiles across river‐to‐delta systems are key to improve our understanding about interacting controlling factors and resultant stratigraphy. This study utilizes the ~400 km transect of the Cenomanian Mesa Rica Sandstone (Dakota Group, USA), which allows mapping of down‐dip changes in facies, thickness distribution, fluvial architecture and spatial extent of stratigraphic surfaces. The two sandstone units of the Mesa Rica Sandstone represent contemporaneous fluvio‐deltaic deposition in the Tucumcari sub‐basin (Western Interior Basin) during two regressive phases. Multivalley deposits pass down‐dip into single‐story channel sandstones and eventually into contemporaneous distributary channels and delta‐front strata. Down‐dip changes reflect accommodation decrease towards the paleoshoreline at the Tucumcari basin rim, and subsequent expansion into the basin. Additionally, multi‐storey channel deposits bound by erosional composite scours incise into underlying deltaic deposits. These represent incised‐valley fill deposits, based on their regional occurrence, estimated channel tops below the surrounding topographic surface and coeval downstepping delta‐front geometries. This opposes criteria offered to differentiate incised valleys from flood‐induced backwater scours. As the incised valleys evidence relative sea‐level fall and flood‐induced backwater scours do not, the interpretation of incised valleys impacts sequence stratigraphic interpretations. The erosional composite surface below fluvial strata in the continental realm represents a sequence boundary/regional composite scour (RCS). The RCS’ diachronous nature demonstrates that its down‐dip equivalent disperses into several surfaces in the marine part of the depositional system, which challenges the idea of a single, correlatable surface. Formation of a regional composite scour in the fluvial realm throughout a relative sea‐level cycle highlights that erosion and deposition occur virtually contemporaneously at any point along the depositional profile. This contradicts stratigraphic models that interpret low‐accommodation settings to dominantly promote bypass, especially during forced regressions. Source‐to‐sink analyses should account for this in order to adequately resolve timing and volume of sediment storage in the system throughout a complete relative sea‐level cycle.     

基于COSI-Corr技术的龙羊峡库区1987—2019年风沙输移特征及潜在入库量估算

风沙活动威胁着龙羊峡水库的安全运营,查清沙害来源和入库量对于防治水患和沙害具有重要意义。基于1987、1995、2003、2013、2019年的Landsat卫星影像,利用COSI-Corr技术监测了龙羊峡库区不同时空的沙丘移动特征,并重新评估库区近32 a的潜在风沙入库量。结果显示：（1）1987—2019年龙羊峡库区沙丘平均移动速率为5.81 m·a^-1,呈先加速（1987—2003年）后减速（2003—2013年）再加速（2013—2019年）趋势;沙丘移动方向在132.81°—165.82°范围内,与该区主风向一致。（2）近32 a向龙羊峡水库输送的潜在风沙量可达7.82×10⁷ m3（1.20×10⁸ t）。上风向塔拉滩潜在输送量为7.38×10⁷ m3（1.14×10⁸ t）,下风向木格滩仅贡献了0.44×10⁷ m3（0.68×10⁷ t）。（3）库区内风沙输移受风况、气候、植被等多种因素的影响,在未来全球变暖条件下,青藏高原的风沙活动将会持续发展,风沙入库量的长期累计效应将对水库安全构成严重威胁,必须引起足够重视。     

低纬高原气候季节变化特征研究——以云南昆明大理为例

依据《气候季节划分》标准,选取我国低纬高原地区2个典型旅游城市——昆明和大理,进行了气候季节平均态,季节开始日期及长度变化,春分、夏至、秋分、冬至节气气温演变分析。（1） 昆明、大理是高原“无夏区”,一年仅有春、秋、冬三季,属“春秋型”城市,春、秋季为295 d和290 d,占全年的80.8%和79.5%。（2） 随着气候变暖,昆明、大理春、秋、冬三季比例发生了改变,春、秋季增加,冬季缩短,昆明变化幅度强于大理。（3） 昆明、大理春季始于2月9日和2月10日,春季长度为117 d和123 d;秋季始于6月7日和6月13日,秋季长度为178 d和167 d;冬季始于12月1日和11月27日,冬季长度为70 d和76 d;昆明、大理“春常在、秋长驻、冬短暂”特征显著。（4） 近60年来,昆明、大理春季开始日呈提早趋势,秋季开始日呈稍推迟趋势,冬季开始日呈推迟趋势;昆明、大理春季长度增加;昆明秋季长度略增加,大理秋季长度略减少;昆明、大理冬季长度减少。（5） 昆明、大理春分节令日气温阀值为14.8 ℃和14.2 ℃,夏至为20.3 ℃和20.5 ℃,秋分为17.4 ℃和17.5 ℃,冬至均为7.9 ℃;与我国东部季风区的北京和上海相比,昆明、大理在春分、夏至、秋分、冬至四个节令上具有“春暖、夏凉、秋爽、冬暖”特征;近60年来,四个节令日气温年际变化呈升高趋势,尤以春分、秋分增暖显著。     

基于全球闪电定位网的江淮闪电定位网探测效率分析：以台风“利奇马”为例

基于全球闪电定位网(World Wide Lightning Location Network,WWLLN)获取的闪电定位资料对江淮闪电定位网(Jianghuai Area Sferic Array,JASA)在内陆及近海区域的闪电实时探测性能进行评估。通过对2019年第9号超强台风“利奇马”期间产生的闪电活动进行对比分析,发现JASA和WWLLN对台风闪电的径向分布、时间变化和空间变化有较好的一致性,绝大部分闪电发生在云顶亮温小于220 K区域;在台风发展阶段,内核区闪电活动较为频繁,在台风成熟和消亡阶段时,闪电主要分布外雨带,内核区的闪电活动少但集中。在探测效率方面,JASA对江淮区域实时定位到的闪电数远多于WWLLN,相对探测效率和绝对探测效率分别为69.12%和92.51%。而在海洋区域(114～130°E,20～24°N和123～130°E,24～32°N),由于受到JASA站点位置分布的限制,闪电实时定位数略少于WWLLN,其相对探测效率和绝对探测效率分别为32.67%和52.26%。研究结果表明了JASA对内陆及近海区域雷暴具备较强的捕获能力,为实时监测台风期间强对流闪电...