Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

High-resolution sedimentary record of lead in the coastal mud of the East China Sea in the past one hundred and fifty years

In the East China Sea （ECS）, there are some mud areas, including the south coastal mud area, the north coastal mud area, and the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island. X-ray fluorescence （XRF） techniques and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry （TIMS） were used to study the high-resolution sedimentary record of Pb concentrations and Pb stable isotopic compositions in the past one hundred and fifty years in the coastal mud of the ECS. Pb concentrations of a ^210Pb dating S5 core in the study area have increased rapidly since 1980, and reached the maximal value with 65.08 μg/g in 2000, corresponding to the fast economic development of China since the implementation of the ＂Reform and Open Policy＂ in 1978; ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios generally had stabilized at 1.195 from 1860 to 1966, and decreased gradually from 1966 to 2000, indicating that the anthropogenic source Pb contribution to the ECS has increased gradually since 1966, especially since 1980. Pb concentrations decreased distinctly from 2000 to 2003 and ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios increased from 2001 to 2003, corresponding closely to the ban of lead gasoline from 2000 in China. From 1950 to 2003, there occurred four distinct decrease events of ^206Pb/^207Pb, possibly responding to the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） catastrophic floods in 1998, 1991, 1981 and 1954; from 1860 to 1966, there were two decrease periods of ^206Pb/^207Pb, which may respond to the catastrophic floods of Changjiang River in 1931 and 1935, and 1870. As a result of the erosion and drowning by the catastrophic floods, the anthropogenic lead accumulated in soil and water environments over a long period of time was brought into the Changjiang River, then part of them was finally transported into the ECS, which leads to changes in Pb stable isotopic composition.     

Carbonates calibrated against oceanographic parameters along a latitudinal transect in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Trophic resources are an important control governing carbonate production. Though this importance has long been recognized, no calibration exists to quantitatively compare biogenic assemblages within trophic resource fields. This study presents a field calibration of carbonate producers in a range of settings against high‐resolution in situ measurements of nutrients, temperature and salinity. With its latitudinal extent from 30° to 23° N, the Gulf of California, Mexico, spans the warm‐temperate realm and encompasses nutrient regimes from oligo‐mesotrophic in the south to eutrophic in the north. Accordingly, from south to north carbonates are characterized by: (i) coral‐dominated shallow carbonate factories (5–20 m water depth) with average sea‐surface temperatures of 25 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 31 °C), average salinities of 35·06‰ and average chlorophyll a levels, which are a proxy for nutrients, of 0·25 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 0·48, min. 0·1). (ii) Red algal‐dominated subtidal to inner‐shelf carbonate formation (10–25 m) in the central Gulf of California exhibiting average temperatures of 23 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 30 °C), average salinities of 35·25‰, and average Chl a levels of 0·71 Chl a m^?3 (max. 5·62, min. 0). (iii) Molluskan bryozoan‐rich inner to outer shelf factories in the northern Gulf of California (20–50 m) with average sea surface temperatures of only 20 °C (min. 13 °C, max 29 °C), average salinities of 35·01‰, and average contents of 2·2 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 8·38, min. 0). By calibrating sedimentological data with in situ measured oceanographic information in different environments, the response of carbonate producers to environmental parameters was established and extrapolated to carbonates on a global scale. The results demonstrate the importance of recognizing and quantifying trophic resources as a dominant control determining the biogenic composition and facies character of both modern and fossil carbonates.     

Hydrology and hydrogeology of Sakaryabaşı Karstic springs, Çifteler, Turkey

The Sakarya River is one of the largest rivers in Turkey and is fed mainly from Sakaryabaşı springs. The Sakaryabaşı springs are located in the Central Anatolia and issue from confined/semi-confined karst having a thermal component and therefore, having quite different hydrogeological characteristics as compared to the Taurus Karst region, a typical example of the Mediterranean type of karst. The karstic carbonate rocks that form the groundwater reservoir are overlain by a thick semi-pervious overburden of mainly clastics of Neogene age. Tectonics is the major factor controlling the occurrence of the karst springs in the area where topography is rather flat. This study aimed at explaining the occurrence and movement of the karst groundwater within the system by use of hydrogeological, chemical, and isotopic tools. Isotopic composition of the waters revealed that all waters in the region are of meteoric origin and the thermal component is due to deep circulation. The catchment area of the hydrogeological system extends to the south and groundwater movement is towards the outlets, which are in a depression along a major fault. The movement of the groundwater, based on analysis of remotely sensed images, is controlled mainly by structural elements.     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

Effects of magnetic interactions in anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility: Models, experiments and implications for igneous rock fabrics quantification

Besides granites of the ilmenite series, in which the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is mainly controlled by paramagnetic minerals, the AMS of igneous rocks is commonly interpreted as the result of the shape-preferred orientation of unequant ferromagnetic grains. In a few instances, the anisotropy due to the distribution of ferromagnetic grains, irrespective of their shape, has also been proposed as an important AMS source. Former analytical models that consider infinite geometry of identical and uniformly magnetized and coaxial particles confirm that shape fabric may be overcome by dipolar contributions if neighboring grains are close enough to each other to magnetically interact. On these bases we present and experimentally validate a two-grain macroscopic numerical model in which each grain carries its own magnetic anisotropy, volume, orientation and location in space. Compared with analytical predictions and available experiments, our results allow to list and quantify the factors that affect the effects of magnetic interactions. In particular, we discuss the effects of (i) the infinite geometry used in the analytical models, (ii) the intrinsic shape anisotropy of the grains, (iii) the relative orientation in space of the grains, and (iv) the spatial distribution of grains with a particular focus on the inter-grain distance distribution. Using documented case studies, these findings are summarized and discussed in the framework of the generalized total AMS tensor recently introduced by Cañon-Tapia (Cañon-Tapia, E., 2001. Factors affecting the relative importance of shape and distribution anisotropy in rocks: theory and experiments. Tectonophysics, 340, 117–131.). The most important result of our work is that analytical models far overestimate the role of magnetic interaction in rock fabric quantification. Considering natural rocks as an assemblage of interacting and non-interacting grains, and that the effects of interaction are reduced by (i) the finite geometry of the interacting clusters, (ii) the relative orientation between interacting grains, (iii) their heterogeneity in orientation, shape and bulk susceptibility, and (iv) their inter-distance distribution, we reconcile analytical models and experiments with real case studies that minimize the role of magnetic interaction onto the measured AMS. Limitations of our results are discussed and guidelines are provided for the use of AMS in geological interpretation of igneous rock fabrics where magnetic interactions are likely to occur.     

Modèles géostatistiques de concentrations ou de débits le long des cours d'eau

Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

山区生态县区域协调发展的机制构建--以粤北始兴县为例

区域协调机制在不同类型地域和一种类型地域的不同的发展阶段是不同的。始兴县作为一个典型的山区生态县,工业进入加速发展时期,在此经济发展阶段的区域协调问题主要表现在:与外部区域经济、社会发展差距拉大,工业化与流域生态环境保护的矛盾已开始凸现,县政府协调区域发展的财政能力较低,区域协调机制不健全等。由此对始兴县的区域协调机制进行建构:建立健全多层次的区域协调机构;加大纵向和横向政府财政转移支付的力度;加强与相邻相关地区的协调;实施区域空间管治协调,保护城乡生态环境;科学合理选择产业,大力发展循环经济;全县推行绿色GDP考核等。     

大变形有限元法分析边坡稳定性

边坡稳定性分析的重要任务是确定边坡潜在滑面的位置及相应的安全系数,鉴于坡体位移可在现场监测中直接得到,提出边坡潜在滑面确定的位移判据,采用大变形有限元首先计算出边坡的位移场,然后在开挖面的不同高度作塑性区内的水平位移参考线,依次连接参考线上的位移突变点即得到边坡失稳的潜在滑面位置,分析滑面上的应力以及岩体抗剪强度即得到边坡的整体安全系数。