Long-term morphodynamic evolution of estuaries: An inverse problem

A new technique for predicting long-term variations in estuary morphology is developed using a morphological evolution equation that isolates diffusive and non-diffusive processes in estuaries. The contribution from non-diffusive processes to the morphological changes of the estuary is incorporated in the governing equation by a source function. The source function is derived by solving an inverse problem using historic survey data of the Humber estuary, UK covering a period of 150 years.     

Analysis of the anomalous strength and location of the ITCZ affecting the formation of northern Pacific typhoons

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1959-2004, the location and strength of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Con-vergence Zone), as well as their relations with typhoons in the northwestern Pacific were studied. It was found that the pentad loca-tion and strength of the ITCZ had close relations with the typhoon frequency. Higher latitude location or strengthened ITCZ were found to be favorable for the occurrence of typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific. An index was defined for ascertaining the loca-tion of the ITCZ. It was found that the index defined with the maximum value ofpentad and monthly meridional shear of zonal wind speed could better describe the location of ITCZ than another index defined with the maximum value of convergence. Correlation analysis between the index of ITCZ and the maximum cloud cover in the tropics showed that there were close relations between the ITCZ determined by the index and the maximum tropical cloud belt. The strength index of an ITCZ was defined as the zonal wind speed difference at latitudes south and north of the ITCZ. It was found that there are close relations between the ITCZ intensity and typhoon occurrence in the South China Sea [10°N-20°N, 100°E-120°E] and regions east of the Philippines and near the Mariana Islands [5°N-20°N, 127.5°E-150°E].     

Intergrain contact density indices for granular mixes-Ⅱ:Liquefaction resistance

Whether the presence of non-plastic silt in a granular mix soil impact its liquefaction potential and how to evaluate liquefaction resistance of sand containing different amounts of silt contents are both controversial issues. This paper presents the results of an experimental evaluation to address these issues. Two parameters, namely, equivalent intergranular void ratio (ec)eq and equivalent interfine void ratio (ef)eq, proposed in a companion paper (Thevanayagam, 2007) as indices of active grain contacts in a granular mix, are used to characterize liquefaction resistance of sands and silty sands. Results indicate that, at the same global void ratio (e), liquefaction resistance of silty sand decreases with an increase in fines content (CF) up to a threshold value (CFth). This is due to a reduction in intergrain contact density between the coarse grains. Beyond CFth, with further addition of fines, the interfine contacts become significant while the inter-coarse grain contacts diminish and coarse grains become dispersed. At the same e, the liquefaction resistance increases and the soil becomes stronger with a further increase in silt content. Beyond a limiting fines content (CFL), the liquefaction resistance is controlled by interfine contacts only. When CF＜CFth, at the same (ec)eq, the liquefaction resistance of silty sand is comparable to that of the host clean sand at a void ratio equal to (ec)eq. When CF＞CFth, at the same (ef)eq, the cyclic strength of a sandy silt is comparable to the host silt at a void ratio equal to (ef)eq.     

多波束回声数据的统计与底质分类应用

利用声反向散射数据作海底沉积物分类,是海洋地质学家感兴趣的话题,也是目前多波束声纳应用的一个研究热点。结合胶州湾实际调查数据,探讨了贝叶斯分类方法在该领域的应用。研究结果表明,该方法可以对不同的底质类型进行分类,可以识别未知的底质类型以及对混合在一起的两种不同类型的目标进行分类。     

中国近海验潮站长期观测资料的潮汐调和分析

对我国近海厦门、大连、北海、连云港、坎门、汕尾、东方、海口、香港北角、名濑、那霸、吕四、闸坡、石臼所共14个验潮站多年潮汐资料进行了分析。对1 a调和分析结果中的8个分潮(Q1,O1,P1,K1,N2,M2,S2,K2)进一步进行了分离,得到各分潮的调和常数,并和1 a潮汐调和分析中的假定值进行了比较。结果表明,有些分潮存在较大误差。用19 a分析所得的调和常数代替传统1 a分析的假定值,能够提高潮汐分析和预报精度,减小误差。     

Changes of nutrient concentrations and N: P: Si ratios and their possible impacts on the Huanghai Sea ecosystem

To investigate the impacts of nutrient concentrations and N:P:Si ratios on the ecosystem of the Huanghai Sea (Yellow Sea), the current status and long-term variation of nutrients concentrations and ratios as well as phytoplankton community structure in the Huanghai Sea were collected and analyzed. The results reveal great annual and seasonal fluctuations in the nutrient concentrations and N:P:Si ratios during 1998-2008 with no clear pattern observed in the whole region. Yet on a seasonal scale of spring and in the coastal regions such as the Jiaozhou Bay and Sanggou Bay, the increase of DIN concentration and N:P ratio as well as the decrease of phosphate and silicate concentrations and Si:N ratios were relatively significant. Many pelagic ecosystem changes have occurred concurrent with these changes of the nutrient regime, such as the recent increase of primary production, changes of phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass and abundance, an increase of eutrophication, and occurrence of HABs. In addition, new trends in the variation of nutrients seem to be developing in some particular transect such as 36°N, which suggests that long-term and systematic ecosystem monitoring in the Huanghai Sea is necessary.     

黄、渤海海冰长期变化特征分析

选取渤海、黄海北部冰情等级、冰面积资料和大气环流逐月资料,采用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法,研究海冰长期变化特征及其气候成因。结果发现黄、渤海海冰具有多尺度变化特征,存在低频变化、高频变化和无明显周期的演变过程。西太平洋副高、亚洲极涡以及纬向环流是影响海冰生成与变化的直接因素。黄、渤海海冰还与印度洋副高、北美副高,以及大西洋副高存在显著年代际相关关系。     

钱塘江河口段长周期泥沙冲淤和河床变形

通过对钱塘江河口段50多年连续水下地形资料的整理和分析,给出了该河口段在遭遇连续丰、枯水文年时的长周期泥沙冲淤特点,以及相应塑造的顺直、弯曲两种河势在河床形态与演变上的差异。研究结果认为,长周期泥沙冲淤和河床变形是钱塘江河口段保持冲淤平衡的一种自动调整手段;与冲积河流不同的是,钱塘江河口段通过河型、比降、断面等因素的调整来改变进入该河口段潮流量的大小。     

RCP4.5情景下预测21世纪南海海平面变化

结合卫星高度计资料和SODA温盐数据,本文利用CCSM(Community Climate System Model version4)气候系统模式在代表性浓度路径RCP4.5情景下对全球海平面变化趋势的预测模拟结果作为强迫场,用POP模式模拟预测21世纪南海海平面长期趋势变化及空间分布。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5情景下,南海海域在21世纪末10年平均海平面相对于20世纪末10年上升了15~39cm,明显上升海域位于中南半岛东部的南海中部、南部海域和吕宋海峡东西两侧海域,上升值最大可达39cm。如果加上格陵兰和南极等陆地冰川融化的影响,21世纪南海总海平面上升值将可能达到35~75cm。南海比容海平面明显上升区域位于吕宋岛东面的深水海域,广东沿岸流和吕宋冷涡之间海域,以及中南半岛东南部海域。总比容海平面的变化主要来自热比容,盐比容贡献比较小。南海南部和西部比容海平面上升速率较低,如加里曼丹岛西北侧、泰国湾和海南岛西侧有下降趋势。