Complexity and Self-Organized Criticality of Solid Earth System(Ⅰ)

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Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California

Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.     

Extreme Particulate Levels at a Western Pacific Coastal City: The Influence of Meteorological Factors and the Contribution of Long-Range Transport

The 4-year data sets (1998–2001) of PM₁₀ and other gaseous pollutants at four rural and urban monitoring sites provided by Environmental Protection Department of Hong Kong have been analyzed for days of extremely high and low PM₁₀ levels. The annual means of PM₁₀ concentrations are between 37 and 57 μg/m³. The level of high PM₁₀ concentration is defined from the comparison of local and international standards. Episode days are mainly controlled by different meteorological conditions: the continental outflow, the land-sea breeze/weak synoptic forcings and the approaching tropical cyclones. Integrated approaches have been used to distinguish between the predominantly “territory wide” and “long-range transport” (LRT) episode days. Case studies of these types of episodes are presented and the number of episode days per year for each type has been estimated. It is found that the LRT contributions are significant and account for ∼66% of the PM₁₀ episode days. Very high correlations between CO and PM₁₀ concentrations, and between SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations, can be found during the “territory wide” episode days which implies the important contributions of fossil fuel combustion to the PM₁₀ episodes. The number of “low level” PM₁₀ days per year has decreased by a factor near 3 from 1998 to 2001. Precipitation scavenging is the major process causing low levels of PM₁₀, irrespective of the associated weather systems. The regional annual background level is ∼9 μg/m³. With the exception of seasalt components, the average elemental concentrations of major inorganic species are similar for all of the sites during LRT events and constitute representative compositions of PM₁₀ during such events.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geography and the Third World. International Seminar, 14–18 May 1980, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia . Ishmail Ahmad and Jamaluddin Md Jahi, eds. The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States . Mark Baldassare. Sport and Place: A Geography of Sport in England, Scotland & Wales . John Bale. The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry . Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison. Selected Essays 1963–1975: Carl O. Sauer . Bob Callahen, ed. Housing and Planning in the Countryside . G. Clark. Conflict, Politics and the Urban Scene . Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston, eds. Thematic Maps: Their Design and Production . David J. Cuff and Mark T. Mattson. Wine: A Geographic Appreciation . Harm Jan de Blij. USSR in Maps . J. C. Dewdney. Political Geography: A Contemporary Perspective . Ramesh D. Dikshit. Rethinking Human Adaptation . Rada Dyson-Hudson and Michael A. Little, eds. Sacred Sands: The Struggle for Community in the indiana Dunes . J. Ronald Engel. Geography of the Biosphere . A. Furley and Walter W. Newey. Disaster and Reconstruction . Robert Geipel. Glasgow: The Making of a City . Andrew Gibb. Design for Arid Regions . Giden S. Golany, ed. Urbanization and Cancer Mortality: The United States Experience, 1950–1975 . Michael R. Greenberg. Geology in the Nineteenth Century: Changing Views of a Changing World . Mott T. Greene. Colonización y Destrucción de Bosques en Panamá . Stanley Heckadon Moreno and Alberto McKay, eds. Urban Geography: A First Approach . David T. Herbert and Colin J. Thomas. The Visual and Spatial Structure of Landscapes . Tadahiko Higuchi. Climate from Tree Rings . M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds. The structure of Nineteenth Century Cities . James H. Johnson and Colin G. Pooley, eds. The American Planner: Biographies and Recollections . Donald A. Krueckeberg, ed. Urban Land Policy For the 1980s, the Message for State and Local Government . George Lefcoe, ed. Regional Planning: Evolution, Crisis and Prospects . Gill C. Lim, ed. Relevance and Ethics In Geography . Bruce Mitchell and Dianne Draper. China: The Geography of Development and Modernization . Clifton W. Pannell and Laurence J. C. MA. The Urban Retailing System . Robert B. Potter. Hants. Nonconventional Energy Resources . Philip R. Pryde. Caribbean Migrants: Environment and Human Survival on St. Kitts and Nevis . Bonham C. Richardson. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson. East Los Angeles: History of A Barrio . Ricardo Romo. Integrated Impact Assessment . Frederick A. Rossini and Alan L. Porter, eds. Environmental Aesthetics: Essays in Interpretation . Barry Sadler and Allen Carlson, eds. Earthwatch . Charles Sheffield. Field Techniques and Research Methods in Geography . Robert H. Stoddard. Haiti: Land of Poverty . Robert J. Tata. Weathering and Erosion: Sources and Methods in Geography . Stephen T. Trudgill. Once Beneath the Forest. Prehistoric Terracing in the Río Bec Region of the Maya Lowlands . B. L. Turner, II. The Historical Geography of Scotland since 1707 . David Turnock.     

基于农户视角的洪灾社会脆弱度及影响因素——以安康市4个滨河村庄为例

降低洪灾社会脆弱度是缓解洪灾社会影响,建立洪水韧性的重要途径。本文从敏感性、适应性和暴露度3个方面构建微观尺度下的洪灾社会脆弱度评价指标体系,以安康市4个滨河村庄为例,运用基于熵权的综合指数法评价农户的洪灾社会脆弱度,并通过BP神经网络分析厘清评价指标与社会脆弱度之间的重要性关系,识别出洪灾社会脆弱度的主要影响因素。据此提出相应的对策建议作为降低农户洪灾社会脆弱度的实践依据。研究表明：①案例村调研样本中近一半的农户处于高社会脆弱度等级,由此推算,研究区有715个农户具有较高的洪灾社会脆弱度;②受访者健康状况、防汛信息渠道、避灾疏散方式、建筑质量、是否有病残人口、家庭收入多样性、5岁以下幼儿比重和60岁以上老年人比重是农户社会脆弱度的主要影响因素;③基于农户视角的洪灾社会脆弱度评价能准确地识别出脆弱度较高的农户,其结果在降低洪灾社会脆弱度方面更具有现实意义。     

碳排放空间依赖视角下环境分权的碳排放效应

以环境管理人员在不同层级政府间的配置直接测算环境分权度,通过纳入财政分权指标,采用省级面板数据和动态空间计量模型从空间视角实证检验环境分权对碳排放的影响。结果表明：① 中国省域碳排放存在显著的惯性依赖和空间路径依赖,本地区碳排放的增加（降低）将带动相邻地区碳排放的上升（下降）。② 国家层面上,环境总体分权（ED）、环境行政分权（EAD）和环境监测分权（EMD）显著降低碳排放,环境监察分权（ESD）和财政分权（FD）则显著加剧碳排放。同样地,ED及其分解指标与FD的交互项也均显著促进碳排放,其影响大小与环境管理分权的类别相关。③ 不同地区环境分权的碳排放效应存在异质性。西部地区ED、EAD和EMD对碳排放产生的抑制效应明显大于东、中部地区,而东部地区ED及其分解指标与FD交互项对碳排放的抑制作用强于中、西部地区。     

广西北香铅锌锡矿区成矿地质及地球化学找矿前景评价

文章从区域成矿背景、地层、构造等几方面探讨了矿床的成矿地质条件,指出NW向同沉积断裂对矿床的空间分布、产状等起主要控制作用,其次一级NW向断裂则是矿床的主要赋存构造,矿床的形成受地层岩性和构造双重控制。通过化探次生晕异常评价,圈定出北香一下大莫和莫四一南华两个呈NW-SE走向的综合矿化异常带。认为北香一下大莫异常带的走向延伸部位以及莫四一南华异常带的深部应具有一定的找矿潜力。     

一种改进的透视不变匹配算法

针对透视尺度不变特征PSIFT匹配算法穷举采样带来模拟影像冗余、海量特征匹配造成计算效率低下等问题,提出一种改进的PSIFT算法。首先对待匹配影像进行透视模拟重采样,在模拟影像上提取SIFT特征并匹配,计算初始近似单应矩阵;然后利用近似单应矩阵对待匹配影像进行单应变换以消除部分透视变形,再次提取特征和匹配,并采用随机抽样一致(RANSAC)方法提纯粗匹配。实验结果表明,该算法计算效率高,对视角变化鲁棒,与PSIFT相比,匹配正确率是其2~5倍,计算速度快5~9倍。     

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 2. Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 2. Dépendance temporelle des processus hydrologiques et échelle temporelle

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation and lag-one autocorrelation. In the first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and the state scaling behaviour were investigated. This second part of the study is devoted to joint distributional properties of hydrological processes. Specifically, it investigates the time dependence structure that may result from the ME principle and shows that the time scaling behaviour (or the Hurst phenomenon) may be obtained by this principle under the additional general condition that all time scales are of equal importance for the application of the ME principle. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series examined in the literature (one of which is used here as an example), validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.     

三维室内空间注记优化配置方法

三维室内空间标注时易出现注记穿透墙体、注记密集以及视角变换导致的标注对象不明确、注记重叠等问题。然而,当前室内注记配置研究缺乏对标注对象不明确问题的解决。现有的注记重叠处理方法存在信息丢失或难以随视角变换进行快速动态调整等问题。针对上述问题,将三维模型与二维平面注记相结合,设计了指向式注记形式及其优化配置方法。该方法有效解决了标注对象不明确问题,支持重叠注记的快速检测,能随视角变换快速动态调整重叠注记位置,保持视域内所有注记信息的完整展示。通过对比多视角下的三维室内注记优化前后的实验结果,验证了该方法的有效性。