滑带土粘土矿物定向性的x射线衍射及其对滑坡的作用

本文首先论述了粘土矿物颗粒定向排列测定的基本原理并提出粘土矿物定向性定量评价方法,然后根据实例—庙上北滑坡的滑带土粘土矿物的X射线衍射结果,进行定向性定量分析计算,得出滑带土粘土矿物颗粒的定向度为弱到中等定向,并以中等定向为主。因而在水的往返作用下,滑带土具一定的胀缩性及胀缩的不均匀性,再加上粘土矿物本身亦具有的胀缩性及胀缩的可逆性和循环性,故导致滑带土抗剪强度和结构强度不断降低,大大影响斜坡的稳定性。     

Risk analysis of landslides – A case study

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.     

Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.     

岩溶地区桩基的有限元分析

岩溶地区长桩存在着遇洞率的问题。为了研究岩溶地区桩的受力特点,采用有限元法模拟岩溶地区桩基的工作方式,分析了岩层厚度对桩的影响以及桩的受力状态,并研究了去桩的可能性。计算结果表明:岩层厚度对桩的影响较大,岩层的位置对桩的应力不产生影响,仅对桩的位移产生影响。     

地质灾害勘查的地球物理方法及其发展趋势

地质灾害的勘查是地质灾害评估、灾害治理方案设计、防治工程实施的重要保证，其中物探技术可以发挥重要作用。近年来，物探勘探技术在此方面的实验研究工作发展迅速，本文对这种新的应用技术进行了简要的综述，以利于地质灾害勘查工作的进一步发展。     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

线性综合模型用于崩滑体变形预报的研究

综合分析和比较了自回归模型和回归模型的特点，提出了采用线性综合模型来预报崩滑体变形的思想，以弥补自回归模型或回归模型预报的不足。实测资料的处理结果表明，综合线性模型具有特别的适用性。     

1991年江淮流域梅雨结束预报的分析与讨论

１９９１年江淮梅雨结束，在预报上具有相当难度。由于ＥＣＭＷＦ数值预报出现重大偏差，曾一度造成业务预报的重大分歧，增加了预报决策的困难。作者客观地反映当时预报的实况，其目的在于剖析预报分歧中的症结，并由此提出预报员的经验可以弥补单一预报工具的不足，修正数值预报产品的误差，从而提高预报准确率。     

斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．