Predicting and forecasting flow discharge at sites receiving significant lateral inflow

Two models, one linear and one non‐linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non‐linear model is based on a multilayer feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow‐stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real‐time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow‐stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4‐h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8‐h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MIXTURE ANALYSIS USING FACTOR ANALYSIS.Ⅱ:SELF-MODELING CURVE RESOLUTION

One of the major applications of factor analysis in the chemical literature,self-modeling curve resolution(SMCR),is covered in this review,including a historical account of the inethods derived from Lawtonand Sylvestre's original method.Papers treating the theory or applications of SMCR are included.Qualitative and quantitative applications are described where appropriate.     

Estimation of areal specific yield in sands using the central limit theorem

A new approach is demonstrated that permits a reliable estimate of specific yield using published values of the van Genuchten water retention parameters and effective grain sizes and the measured effective grain sizes of soil samples. The specific yield distribution of the soil texture was computed using the published values of the van Genuchten parameters. The specific yield values and the published values of effective grain sizes were then used to construct a specific yield–effective grain size curve, which estimates the ‘point’ specific yield of the soil samples. Applying the central limit theorem, the point specific yields could be transformed into an ‘areal’ specific yield for a study area. Compared with other commonly used approaches, the present procedure requires relatively low computational efforts and readily obtainable data. It is cost effective and does not depend on soil texture classification. More importantly, it incorporates the depth to water table and the variations in grain sizes inherent in natural soil conditions in the estimation. The approach developed was applied for estimating the specific yield of an unconfined sandy aquifer created by land reclamation in the equatorial region. The values obtained were compared with field measurements and the typical ranges of specific yield from the literature. Instead of a single estimate of the specific yield, the method yields a confidence interval with a high confidence level of 95% and with a narrower range than the typical ranges from the literature. In addition, the estimated values are close to the field measurements; hence, the procedure provides a cost‐effective alternative to field measurement. The applicability of the present approach could be extended to sites with heterogeneity in the horizontal direction. Nevertheless, the applicability of the present approach for layered soil profiles requires further evaluations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川盆地三叠系隐伏钾盐层识别与预测方法研究

本文首先通过总结四川盆地钾盐(杂卤石、富钾卤水)的测井响应特征,提出钾盐的测井组合识别法;其次为满足大数据量预测处理需求,介绍了钾盐的测井旋回地层学预测法,该方法具有处理速度快,预测准确度高的特点;最后在实际资料处理与解释中,本文采用了测井旋回地层学法初步预测潜在含钾层段,测井组合识别法再对存疑含钾层段精细排查的技术组合策略,对四川盆地三叠系钾盐资源分布进行了预测,并根据预测结果,划分了4期咸化旋回,指明了3个成钾期,圈定了4个成钾有利区。     

基于小波变换的水沙关系特征分析:以长江大通站为例

根据长江大通站近50年(1957～1999年)的水沙数据,利用复Morlet小波变换,分析水沙时间序列多尺度小波特征,建立了不同时间尺度上的水沙关系式.分析结果显示:(1) 大通站水沙序列年内洪、枯季周期波动最为显著,流量的长周期特征明显,含沙量与输沙量的短周期特征显著.(2) 大通站水沙序列多尺度特征明显,流量的振荡周期主要为3～6 a和8～16 a;含沙量多尺度振荡周期较为平稳,4～6 a的周期振荡中心尺度呈明显下降的趋势;输沙量以4～6 a和10～14 a的周期显著振荡,输沙量变化平稳,较含沙量变化有一定的滞后期.(3) 根据流量小波特征分析,近50年的水沙变化过程大致可分为3个时期,分时段拟合水沙关系曲线,发现总体水沙曲线的指数与正常期和丰水期的接近,而与少水期的存在较大的差距.少水期系数较小、指数较大,表明在少水期泥沙的供给量较少,但水流的搬运能力增强.     

改性料礓石力学性质试验

改性料礓石作为一种传统硅酸盐建筑材料,可以与修复加固的文物本体很好兼容且牢固结合,现阶段已经运用到文物保护工作中。为研究其全面的力学特性,在前人研究基础上,采用伺服刚性试验机对改性料礓石进行了不同围压下的常规三轴试验、单轴压缩试验及巴西劈裂试验。试验结果表明：材料具有较高的抗压强度和抗拉强度,同时具有韧性特征。在低围压时,试样表现为剪切破坏,当围压超过6 MPa时,试样表现出明显的塑性流动特征,且试样的峰值强度与围压近似线性关系。通过绘制莫尔圆包络线计算出抗剪强度参数c、? 值,并分析了峰值应变、弹性模量和围压的关系。分析改性料礓石结石体的微观结构及固化过程中的化学成分变化,认为水化和碳化产物包裹石英砂颗粒的特殊结构,是材料具备韧性特征的原因。研究结果对改性料礓石的应用及文物修复的现场工作具有重要的意义与价值。     

地震孕育过程中地磁日变规律的分析

为了探索地震短临预报的规律,选用1991～2003年洛阳及邻区的22个ML4．0以上地震,对于洛阳台、卢氏台的地磁垂直分量资料进行综合分析,认为中强地震前45天内,Z曲线形态会出现异常变化,表现为低点时间位移、W型双低值现象、低值区、曲线平缓等多种异常。当出现2种以上异常或3次以上异常,未来3个月内,洛阳及邻区可能发生中强地震(概率为0．73)。     

膨胀土胀缩特性试验研究

以南(宁)友(谊关)膨胀土大量的室内试验为基础,研究了膨胀土胀缩时程曲线特征,寻找膨胀土膨胀和收缩曲线的异同点,探求了土的初始含水量、干密度与膨胀变形量的定量关系等。     

RC框架结构地震倒塌易损性分析的实用方法

基于增量动力分析(IDA)的倒塌易损性分析方法是评估建筑结构抗地震倒塌能力的精细方法,但分析过程比较繁杂且非常费时。为了较快地评估建筑结构的抗地震倒塌能力,首先利用静力非线性(pushover)分析,获得结构倒塌能力的初步估计值aS*,然后将每个地面运动记录调整到aS*,对结构进行动力时程分析,记录结构的动力时程反应,利用IDA的思想得到结构的中值数倒塌谱强度?CTS。该方法与传统的增量动力分析方法相比较,可提高计算效率,计算精度也满足要求。