Investigation of gas content of organic-rich shale:A case study from Lower Permian shale in southern North China Basin,central China

Measuring gas content is an essential step in estimating the commerciality of gas reserves. In this study,eight shale core samples from the Mouye-1 well were measured using a homemade patented gas desorption apparatus to determine their gas contents. Due to the air contamination that is introduced into the desorption canister, a mathematical method was devised to correct the gas quantity and quality.Compared to the chemical compositions of desorbed gas, the chemical compositions of residual gas are somewhat different. In residual gas, carbon dioxide and nitrogen record a slight increase, and propane is first observed. This phenomenon may be related to the exposure time during the transportation of shale samples from the drilling site to the laboratory, as well as the differences in the mass, size and adsorptivity of different gas molecules. In addition to a series of conventional methods, including the USBM direct method and the Amoco Curve Fit(ACF) method, which were used here for lost gas content estimation, a Modified Curve Fit(MCF) method, based on the 'bidisperse' diffusion model, was established to estimate lost gas content. By fitting the ACF and MCF models to gas desorption data, we determined that the MCF method could reasonably describe the gas desorption data over the entire time period, whereas the ACF method failed. The failure of the ACF method to describe the gas desorption process may be related to its restrictive assumption of a single pore size within shale samples. In comparison to the indirect method, this study demonstrates that none of the three methods studied in this investigation(USBM, ACF and MCF) could individually estimate the lost gas contents of all shale samples and that the proportion of free gas relative to total gas has a significant effect on the estimation accuracy of the selected method. When the ratio of free gas to total gas is lower than 45%, the USBM method is the best for estimating the lost gas content, whereas when the ratio ranges from 45% to 75% or is more than 75%, the ACF and MCF methods, are the best options respectively.     

RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.     

逻辑回归模型在边坡稳定性分析中的应用

采用逻辑回归模型和确定性系数CF建立概率模型,使用收集到的22个边坡实例,将重度、内聚力、坡角、坡高、内摩擦角和孔隙压力比六个影响因子作为自变量,边坡状态作为因变量,应用SPSS取不同的滑坡概率P与不滑坡概率1-P的比值的自然对数Z进行回归分析。将获得的滑坡概率拟合模型反馈到样本参数上,对比其误差,选取Z=±10时的函数模型对另外8组边坡进行验证,证明预测模型的合理性。     

基于逻辑回归的四川青川县区域滑坡灾害预警模型

四川省青川县滑坡灾害群发,点多面广,区域滑坡灾害预警是有效防灾减灾的重要手段,预警模型是成功预警的核心。由于研究区滑坡诱发机理复杂、调查监测大数据及分析方法不足等原因,传统区域地质灾害预警模型存在预警精度有限、精细化不足等问题。文章在青川县地质灾害调查监测和降水监测成果集成整理与数据清洗基础上,构建了青川县区域滑坡灾害训练样本集,样本集包括地质环境、降雨等27个输入特征属性和1个输出特征属性,涵盖了青川县近9年（2010—2018年）全部样本,数量达1 826个（其中,正样本613个,负样本1 213个）。基于逻辑回归算法,对样本集进行5折交叉验证学习训练,采用贝叶斯优化算法进行模型优化,采用精确度、ROC曲线和AUC值等指标校验模型准确度和模型泛化能力。其中,ROC曲线也称为“受试者工作特征”曲线;AUC值表示ROC曲线下的面积。校验结果显示,基于逻辑回归算法的模型训练结果准确率和泛化能力均较好（准确率94.3%,AUC为0.980）。开展区域滑坡实际预警时,按训练样本特征属性格式,输入研究区各预警单元27个特征属性,调用预先学习训练好的模型,输出滑坡灾害发生概率,根据输出概率分段确定滑坡灾害预警等级。当输出概率P≥40%且P<60%时,发布黄色预警;当输出概率P≥60%且P<80%时,发布橙色预警;当输出概率P≥80%时,发布红色预警。     

南图尔盖盆地Aryskum坳陷钾盐的测井响应特征及其分布

钾盐作为战略资源,在农业、工业等领域具有重要的使用价值。世界大多数固态钾资源发现于大规模的石油勘探过程中,充分利用各种油气地质、地球物理资料开展钾盐勘探对于国家发展尤为重要。位于哈萨克斯坦的南图尔盖盆地地质构造简单、资源勘探潜力较大。文中以南图尔盖盆地Aryskum坳陷为研究区块,基于其沉积地质特点,结合多口井的常规测井资料及前人研究成果,综合分析自然伽马、自然电位、三孔隙度等测井曲线的响应特征,含钾层段具体表现为自然伽马异常高值,并通过无铀伽马曲线等排除铀、钍元素影响,扩径使得中子值偏高,自然电位异常幅度由砂岩层的负异常变化为正异常,电阻率值偏高,密度值介于2.25~2.45 g/cm³,声波时差在270~350 μs/m范围内。基于含钾层测井曲线特点,利用测井曲线综合识别法、重叠法、交会图法进行研究区钾盐识别。在研究区30余口井中发现有可溶性钾盐层分布,分布在M-Ⅱ-3、M-Ⅱ-2小层底部,其中M-Ⅱ-3层底部为主要钾盐层段,并对各井含钾层段累计厚度进行统计分析。最后,借助地层对比分析含钾层段在横向和纵向上的展布情况,通过等厚图的绘制开展了找钾有利区分析,拓展了测井资料在南图尔盖盆地钾盐勘查中的应用,进而为今后研究区钾盐找矿提供重点方向。     

屈曲约束支撑滞回曲线模型和刚度方程的建立

针对屈曲约束支撑,本文根据其反复荷载作用下的滞回特征,提出了一种滞回模型,并建立了屈曲约束支撑的弹塑性刚度方程。根据这种模型编制程序模拟绘制了屈曲约束支撑的滞回曲线,将模拟计算曲线与试验所得曲线进行对比,对比结果表明本文所提模型是准确、有效的。     

探地雷达宽角反射图形拟合方法

探地雷达共中心点(CMP)法仅用于局部速度测试,为使用宽角反射法进行剖面探测,可固定一个雷达天线而将另一个天线沿测线移动,从而获取整个地质界面的反射信号.本文提出宽角反射剖面探测方法,基于平直岩层界面导出其反射信号的关系式,并开发出解释软件,可精确计算岩层几何参数和层速度,从而进行地质分层.     

基于空间公平理论的公共交通服务评价——以深圳市为例

使用空间无关的公平性衡量指数评价公交服务时,会忽视公交服务需求与供给的空间分布特征.为解决此问题,论文提出基于空间公平理论的公交服务评价框架,即通过构建综合基尼系数与莫兰指数的空间公平评价方法,实现整体尺度公交服务评价;通过对分析单元上相对需求与相对供给变量的匹配关系、空间差距进行分析,实现局部尺度公交服务评价,对整体...     

Econometric analysis to differentiate effects of various ship safety inspections

This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies.     

Econometric analysis of the ship demolition market

The topic of ship recycling has obtained considerable attention during the last two decades for a variety of reasons with the likelihood of the adoption of a new international convention under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This study applies econometric modeling to a unique data set to provide insight into the dynamics of the ship recycling market. The data set contains information on 51,112 ships over 100 gt and includes 748,621 events over a period of 29 years. The analysis confirms a negative relationship of earnings and a positive relationship of scrap prices for all locations while Bangladesh seems to be more sensitive to changes in earnings than the other locations and more likely demolishes larger and older vessels. The results for flag and ownership vary across scrapping locations with Malta and Cyprus indicating potential importance from a registry perspective. The overall safety profile of a vessel seems to be less important towards the probability of a ship being scrapped. Possible implementation of the convention at EU level will mostly likely affect Turkey while non-ratification of one of the major flags will most likely affect China or Bangladesh.