提高地方地震台网地震速报水平初探

总结了西昌遥测地震台网地震速报处理技术经验，针对地方台网地震速报中常出现的地震参数误差提出了改进思路。     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Accuracy and precision of different sampling strategies and flux integration methods for runoff water: comparisons based on measurements of the electrical conductivity

Because of their fast response to hydrological events, small catchments show strong quantitative and qualitative variations in their water runoff. Fluxes of solutes or suspended material can be estimated from water samples only if an appropriate sampling scheme is used. We used continuous in‐stream measurements of the electrical conductivity of the runoff in a small subalpine catchment (64 ha) in central Switzerland and in a very small (0·16 ha) subcatchment. Different sampling and flux integration methods were simulated for weekly water analyses. Fluxes calculated directly from grab samples are strongly biased towards high conductivities observed at low discharges. Several regressions and weighted averages have been proposed to correct for this bias. Their accuracy and precision are better, but none of these integration methods gives a consistently low bias and a low residual error. Different methods of peak sampling were also tested. Like regressions, they produce important residual errors and their bias is variable. This variability (both between methods and between catchments) does not allow one to tell a priori which sampling scheme and integration method would be more accurate. Only discharge‐proportional sampling methods were found to give essentially unbiased flux estimates. Programmed samplers with a fraction collector allow for a proportional pooling and are appropriate for short‐term studies. For long‐term monitoring or experiments, sampling at a frequency proportional to the discharge appears to be the best way to obtain accurate and precise flux estimates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国古代太阳中天观测及二至点测算精度

研究了元代《授时历议))所保存的天象观测和推步资料，得出：(1)在AD1277—1280年问所作的98次太阳中天观测的时刻及地平高度的绝对值平均误差分别为2．64min和6．78′．(2)6部古历——《大衍历》、《宣明历》、《纪元历》、《统天历》、《重修大明历》和《授时历》推步BC522年前的3个冬至时刻的误差范围为0．97—3．51d；而AD435—1280年间的45个冬至时刻的绝对值平均误差则分别为9．35、10．42、5．54、2．97、5．68、3．36h．(3)古代确定的AD442—1280年间的16个二至时刻的绝对值平均误差为199．59min，其中元代的误差为27．89min．     

《禹贡》——世界上最早的区域人文地理学著作

《禹贡》是中国最早的地理著作,本文从九州边界的确定、九州的区域研究模式、治山和治水的辩证关系与圈层地带结构模式的朦胧设计四个方面进行分析论述,认为《禹贡》是中国第一个奴隶制国家的国土综合整治开发建设总体规划,内分分区国土整治开发,分系统国土整治开发和国土整治开发战略。战略的最终目标是建立以华夏族为主的多民族统一国家。五服说在理论、内容、方法上,都显示了超前水平,具有一定学术价值和现实意义。本文认为它是世界上最早的区域人文地理学著作。     

全球定位系统的新进展(讲座) 第1讲 导航电文结构的变化和参数的精化——从导航电文的变化看GPS的进展

介绍了GPS现代化实施后调制在L2C码和L5码上的导航电文CNAV总体结构的变化情况,并对CNAV中部分参数的精化和扩充以及卫星历书的细化部分进行了详细阐述和分析。     

MEEMD-Elman神经网络的电离层TEC预报模型

利用IGS中心提供的不同纬度的电离层TEC值,建立基于改进的集总平均经验模态分解(MEEMD)算法和Elman回归神经网络(ERNN)模型相结合的电离层TEC预报模型。实验结果表明,在低、中、高不同纬度采用本文方法预报5 d电离层TEC的预测值的均方根误差最优可达到0.96 TECu,相对精度最优达到95.4%,精度较EMD-ERNN模型及单一ERNN模型有显著提高。     

A GIS Approach to Exploring Monetary Value on Enclosure Era Property-Related Maps

Historical enclosure era property-related maps can tell us a great deal about the life and times of communities in the past. This study offers a unique approach to studying the historical landscape by applying GIS techniques to the examination of an eighteenth-century English village. Using novel GIS applications relying on historical maps, the study explores various aspects of the village’s physical and social characteristics. In doing so, the study forges effective linkages between cultural and landscape variables to reveal aspects of the historical landscape in eighteenth-century Britain previously inaccessible to researchers. This, in turn, provides a much more comprehensive and sophisticated template for future use by historical geographers in a number of contexts.     

地理空间区位与开封兴衰变迁研究

在开封自南宋以来的变迁历程中,因中原地区地理空间区位形势所造成的频繁战患直接导致开封城市的破坏与衰落,更重要的是开封在黄河泛滥区中所处的地理中心位置,不仅使开封周边地区土壤严重沙化,而且还在堰塞其水运河道的同时,也使其失去了成为现代铁路交通枢纽的机会。区域环境因素发生的重要改变导致中原地区区域政治中心在建国初从开封迁离,而改革开放以后随着经济自由流动程度的加强,更多的发展资源向邻近的郑州集聚,也造成开封经济发展的弱势。但随着国家及河南省政府利用开封地理空间区位形势所实施的"郑汴一体化"等当代发展策略的介入,开封将改变长期以来形成的下降趋势而实现复兴与发展。