Numerical simulation of flow dynamics in a tidal river under various upstream hydrologic conditions

Abstract

A three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code model was developed for a 17-km segment of the Mobile River, Alabama, USA. The model external forcing factors include river inflows from upstream, tides from downstream, and atmospheric conditions. The model was calibrated against measured water levels, velocities, and temperatures from 26 April to 29 August 2011. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for water levels were greater than 0.94 and for water temperatures ranged from 0.88 to 0.99. The calibrated model was extended approximately 13 km upstream for simulating unsteady flow, dye, and temperature distributions in the Mobile River under different upstream inflows and downstream harmonic tides. Velocity profiles and distributions of flow, dye, and temperature at various locations were analyzed and show that flow recirculation could only occur under small inflow (50 m³ s^-1) when downstream tides control the flow pattern in the Mobile River. The model results reveal complex interactions among discharges from a power plant, inflows, and tides.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Yang     

Enhancing streamflow forecasting using the augmenting ensemble procedure coupled machine learning models: case study of Aswan High Dam

ABSTRACT

The potential of the most recent pre-processing tool, namely, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), is examined for providing AI models (artificial neural network, ANN; M5-model tree, M5-MT; and multivariate adaptive regression spline, MARS) with more informative input–output data and, thence, evaluate their forecasting accuracy. A 130-year inflow dataset for Aswan High Dam, Egypt, is considered for training, validating and testing the proposed models to forecast the reservoir inflow up to six months ahead. The results show that, after the pre-processing analysis, there is a significant enhancement in the forecasting accuracy. The MARS model combined with CEEMDAN gave superior performance compared to the other models – CEEMDAN-ANN and CEEMDAN-M5-MT – with an increase in accuracy of, respectively, about 13–25% and 6–20% in terms of the root mean square error.     

Effects of material variability on the ductility of composite beams and overstrength coefficients

The aim of this paper is to investigate the plastic rotation capacity of composite beams as well as the overstrength factors for composite joints considering the actual European steel production. It relies on the statistical data of the mechanical properties of steel profiles and reinforcement bars produced in several European steel mills that have been collected during the European research project OPUS. Several steel and composite structures have been designed following the EN 1998 rules, and the effect of the statistical distribution of the steel properties on the design has been analyzed. In such structures, the first attainment of the rotation capacity is expected to happen in the hogging region. The plastic rotation capacity was evaluated using the so‐called standard beam concept. The moment–rotation curve was constructed by joining together the pre‐buckling branch, determined using a fiber model, and the post‐buckling part derived by considering the local plastic failure mechanism as suggested by Gioncu. A program in MATLAB (MATLAB version 7.10.0. Natick, Massachusetts: The MathWorks Inc., 2010) was developed to establish such curve for arbitrary composite beams. The predictions of the model compare favorably against the experimental results. On the basis of the probabilistic model for the mechanical properties of steel, we derive the statistical distribution of the maximum rotation defined at the intersection of the pre‐buckling and post‐buckling curves. Next, we estimate the so‐called overstrength factors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

场地条件对地表地震动特征的影响

以安徽省滁州市地震小区划场地为研究对象,基于ABAQUS显式有限元并行计算平台,采用大尺度二维精细化有限元非线性分析方法,研究了局部地质条件差异对场地地震效应的影响。结果表明：该场地地震动放大效应明显,河漫滩地表PGA放大效应尤为显著;相比一级阶地,河漫滩地表加速度反应谱谱形加宽,谱峰向长周期方向移动,移动幅度约为0．05～0．25S,相应的特征周期增大。地表加速度反应谱呈双峰甚至多峰特征,大尺度场地非线性有限元分析能定性反映出局部地质条件对场地地震效应特性的影响,可为城市地震小区划提供更为合理的科学依据。     

A numerical study on the occurrence of flowing wells in the discharge area of basins due to the upward hydraulic gradient induced wellbore flow

The occurrence of flowing wells in basins has been found to be closely related to the discharge area with an upward hydraulic gradient. Unfortunately, previous studies on upward gradient induced wellbore flow with equaling total inflow (Q_in) in the deep and total outflow (Q_out) in the shallow could not explain the occurrence of flowing wells. By representing wells using the MNW2 Package imbedded in MODFLOW 2005, we obtain the exchange of groundwater between the aquifer and the well in the discharge area of 3D unit basins and identify three scenarios: Q_in = Q_out, Q_in > Q_out > 0 and Q_in > Q_out = 0. The relationship of Q_in > Q_out well explains why flowing wells only develop in a limited part of the discharge area. Sensitivity analysis shows that well location, water table undulation, and basin length–depth ratio do not change the profile of the ratio of cumulative flow rate in a flowing well to total inflow (Q_v/Q_in) versus the relative elevation in the inflow segment, z_in*, but could significantly change the length of the inflow segment; well depth could change both the length of the inflow segment and the profile of Q_v/Q_in versus z_in*. Based on the numerical results in homogeneous and isotropic basins with different basin length–depth ratios in the current study, the ratio of inflow in the lower half part of a flowing well to the total inflow is found to be at least 67% and could be close to 100%, indicating that water at the outlets of flowing wells with long open sections is mainly from the deep part of the well.     

Numerical modeling of plastic deformation and failure around a wellbore in compaction and dilation modes

In many wellbore stability analyses, the ability to forecast both the occurrence and extent of plastic deformation and failure hinges upon a fundamental understanding of deformation mode and failure mechanism in the reservoir rock. This study focuses on analyzing plastic zones, localized deformations, and failures around a borehole drilled overbalanced or underbalanced through a highly porous rock formation. Based on several laboratory experiments, porous rocks are prone to deform under both shear-induced dilation and shear-enhanced compaction mechanisms depending on the stress state. The shapes of the deformation and failure patterns around the borehole are shown, depending on the initial stress state and the local stress paths. The inquiry of the local stress paths in the near-wellbore zone facilitates the understanding of the reasons for different types of failure mechanisms, including the mixed-mode and the plastic deformation structures. The modification of the 2D plane strain condition by imitating third stress in the numerical scheme helps us bring the stress paths closer to the real state of loading conditions. Our modeling reveals that the transition from isotropic to anisotropic stress state is accompanied by an increase in the deviatoric part of effective shear tensor that leads to the development of inelastic deformation, degradation, and subsequent rock failure. Particular interest is devoted to the modeling of strain localization especially in compaction mode around a wellbore and computing the amount of stress concentration at the tips of dog-eared breakouts. Stress concentration can result in a change in irreversible deformation mode from dilatancy to compaction, elucidating the formation of the shear-enhanced compaction phenomenon at the failure tips in the direction of the minimum horizontal stress.     

Investigation of the relationship between runoff and atmospheric oscillations,sea surface temperature,and local‐scale climate variables in the Yellow River headwaters region

The Yellow River headwaters region (YRHR) contributes nearly 40% of total flow in the Yellow River basin, which is suffering from a serious water shortage problem. Investigation of the relationship between runoff and climate variables is important for understanding the variation trend of runoff in the YRHR under global climate change. Global and local climate variables, including the West Pacific subtropical high; northern hemisphere polar vortex (NH); Tibetan Plateau Index B (TPI‐B); southern oscillation index; sea surface temperature; and precipitation, evaporation, and temperature, were fully considered to explore the relationship with runoff at Jimai, Maqu, and Tangnaihai stations from 1956 to 2014. The results reveal that runoff had a decreasing trend, which will likely be maintained in the future, and there was a significant change in runoff around 1995 at all stations. Correlation analysis indicated that runoff was dominated by precipitation, NH, temperature, and TPI‐B, and a substantial correlation was observed with sea surface temperature and evaporation, but there was little correlation with West Pacific subtropical high and southern oscillation index. Furthermore, impacts of climate change on runoff variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. Three dominant runoff periodicities were identified by a singular spectrum analysis‐multitaper method and continuous wavelet transform, that is, 1.0‐, 6.9‐, and 24.8‐year runoff periodicities. In addition, runoff was positively correlated with temperature at a 1‐year periodicity, negatively correlated with TPI‐B at a 6.9‐year periodicity, and positively correlated with NH at a 24.8‐year periodicity, that is, temperature, TPI‐B, and NH‐controlled runoff at annual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Further, all analyses of the stations in the YRHR showed excellent consistency. The results will provide valuable information for water resource management in the YRHR.     

城市局域动态人口估算方法与模拟应用

获取城市局部区域内的实时人口是应急决策等诸多城市管理应用需要解决的问题。但时空的不确定性导致了估算操作的困难:空间范围不确定,即给定的城市区域是可变的;时间不确定,即估计的时间事先不可知。根据城市居民的总体出行规律,居民日常活动基本以城市建筑为中心,或者认为居民因受建筑物所承载功能的吸引而出行。鉴此,给定区域内的静态人口可使用区域内的居住型建筑,以及人均住房建筑面积等统计数据来估算,而动态人口的估算则需要确定每类建筑物在不同时刻所吸引的居民人数。为此,引入建筑物修正系数和建筑物吸引率两个指数。修正系数是其他类型建筑物的容纳能力与作为基准的居住型建筑物的容纳能力之比。通过修正系数可获得每类建筑物的额定容纳人数。吸引率是不同时刻每类建筑物的实际容纳人数与其额定容纳人数的比值。根据居民出行的一般时间分布,将一天按照休息日和节假日分别都划分成七个时段,建筑物类型参照调查城市交通出行率时的分类划分。利用居民出行和交通出行率调查资料等数据,估算每类建筑物的修正系数和吸引率,计算区域内的实时人口数,模拟了一起突发化学品泄漏事故,将所提方法应用到模拟场景的动态人口估计中,并对方法应用中的问题进行了讨论。     

用sPn震相计算内蒙古地震震源深度

利用数字波形记录对2003年6月10日内蒙古托克托县4.2级以及震中距1 000 km范围内不同台站记录M≥3.0地震的sPn震相进行分析,并计算地震的震源深度.研究表明,利用近震震相sPn与Pn波的到时差测定壳内近震深度,方法简捷准确.     

Council Approaches to Implementing Sustainability: a case of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?

Local government has a key role to play in implementing sustainability. Yet even councils attempting to address the issue of sustainability are often unacceptably slow and ineffective in their endeavours. This study investigates the approaches that councils currently take in implementing sustainability, as this may shed additional light on the slow progress of councils towards sustainability. The approaches of three New South Wales councils were examined and assessed using a model developed for the study that utilised the Ecological Footprint as the primary assessment tool. The model assessed three key aspects of council approaches to implementing sustainability: (1) the issues councils target for change; (2) the methods councils use to change behaviours; and (3) the clarity and holistic nature of their approaches. All three council approaches scored poorly against the model mainly as a result of the councils' failure to target the behaviours of their residents that are causing the greatest ecological harm. The major implication is that councils need to reconsider, and possibly overhaul, their approaches to implementing sustainability as these approaches are unlikely ever to achieve sustainability.