Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Mobility of heavy metals from tailings to stream waters in local zinc smelting activities contaminated site

It has been found that stream waters were severely contaminated with wastes from a long-time smelting factory in Hezhang, Guizhou, China. The main sources of contamination are the smelting wastes stored in the open air and abandoned in the vicinity of stream. A method of lead isotope was adopted in order to identify relations between tailings and water contamination. Representative samples of tailings and stream sediments were collected. Mineralogical characterizations were conducted using XRD and TEM/SEM, while acid digestion was carried out for determining metal contents. BCR sequential leaching tests were performed in order to assess metal mobility. The tremendous ‘actual＇ and ‘potential＇ mobility of heavy metals indicates that the smelting waste and stream sediments present a considerable threat to the environment. Besides the chemical remobilization of heavy metals from the sediments and the reworking of riverbed sediments act as a secondary source of pollution. Also groundwater and stream water were sampled in specific locations and were measured.     

3-D seismic structure of the source area of the 1993 Latur, India, earthquake and its implications for rupture nucleations

The Latur earthquake (M_w 6.1) of 29 September 1993 is a rare stable continental region (SCR) earthquake that occurred on a previously unknown blind fault. In this study, we determined detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P- and S-wave velocity (V_p, V_s) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures by inverting the first P- and S-wave high-quality arrival time data from 142 aftershocks that were recorded by a network of temporary seismic stations. The source zone of the Latur earthquake shows strong lateral heterogeneities in V_p, V_s and σ structures, extending in a volume of about 90 × 90 × 15 km³. The mainshock occurred within, but near the boundary, of a low-V_p, high-V_s and low-σ zone. This suggests that the structural asperities at the mainshock hypocenter are associated with a partially fluid-saturated fractured rock in a previously unknown source zone with intersecting fault surfaces. This might have triggered the 1993 Latur mainshock and its aftershock sequence. Our results are in good agreement with other geophysical studies that suggest high conductivity and high concentration of radiogenic helium gas beneath the source zone of the Latur earthquake. Our study provides an additional evidence for the presence of fluid related anomaly at the hidden source zone of the Latur earthquake in the SCR and helps us understand the genesis of damaging earthquakes in the SCR of the world.     

西北旅游落后现状的突破及列车旅游的新思路--兼论"西部之星"旅游列车的产品设计

近几年，西北地区的旅游业虽然取得了很大的成绩，但其发展相对于东部地区却显得落后，其主要原因之一就是西北地区的旅游资源过于分散，景点间距过大，由此导致游览行程过长，游览内容单薄，这在客观上影响了游客的选择。而与此同时，在国外，列车旅游早已作为各国旅游业的重要旅游产品为世人所熟知。文章从分析我国西北旅游业发展的现状入手，针对景点分散这一制约我国西部旅游业发展的客观不利因素，肯定了开发旅游列车产品的思路。作者以西北地区为例，结合目前我国旅游专列发展现状，提出开通“西部之星”旅游列车的构想，并进行了初步的设计。     

我国入境旅游和经济增长关系分析

文章分析了入境旅游发展的区域差异，并用Granger因果检验来考察入境旅游和各区域经济增长之间是否存在相应的因果关系，Granger因果检验的结果表明在东部地区，入境旅游和经济增长存在单向因果关系。东部地区的入境旅游对区域的经济增长产生显著影响。但是全国和中西部地区的入境旅游与经济增长之间不存在显著的因果关系。类似地，东部地区入境旅游增长是其第三产业增长的Granger原因。但是全国和中西部地区的入境旅游和相应区域第三产业的增长并不存在显著的因果关系。在区域层面上。只有少数区域支持入境旅游是区域GDP增长的Granger原因，它们是东部地区的北京、广东、上海、天津、福建、江苏、浙江、海南和广西；中部地区的黑龙江和湖南以及西部地区的云南和陕西。在这些省区市。入境旅游对区域经济增长产生显著的影响。但总体而言，入境旅游在我国还没有足够的发展。     

地缘经济关系测度与分析的理论方法探讨--以云南省为例

文章首先简要分析了地缘经济学的发展进程和研究内容，提出以保护国家利益增强综合国力为主要研究目的的地缘经济理论在一定程度上可以指导不同级别区域经济合作策略的制定。然后在探究了地缘经济关系涵义的前提下，设计了地缘经济关系的测度体系，并用该方法对云南省地缘经济关系进行了数量测度和类型判别，进而对该省地缘经济关系进行了分析和评价，对经济发展提出了建议。     

山区生态县区域协调发展的机制构建--以粤北始兴县为例

区域协调机制在不同类型地域和一种类型地域的不同的发展阶段是不同的。始兴县作为一个典型的山区生态县,工业进入加速发展时期,在此经济发展阶段的区域协调问题主要表现在:与外部区域经济、社会发展差距拉大,工业化与流域生态环境保护的矛盾已开始凸现,县政府协调区域发展的财政能力较低,区域协调机制不健全等。由此对始兴县的区域协调机制进行建构:建立健全多层次的区域协调机构;加大纵向和横向政府财政转移支付的力度;加强与相邻相关地区的协调;实施区域空间管治协调,保护城乡生态环境;科学合理选择产业,大力发展循环经济;全县推行绿色GDP考核等。     

基于RS和GIS的青藏高原草地生态系统土壤水分保持功能及其经济价值评估——以生长季为例

根据生态系统服务功能理论,利用RS和G IS技术,以土壤含水量为基础因子,对青藏高原区草地生态系统的土壤水分保持功能及其价值的动态变化过程进行有效评价,以直接的货币形式反映出青藏高原主要草地类型的土壤水分保持功能的大小。通过计算和分析发现:(1)由于草地类型分布面积、单位面积保持量的影响,各种类型草地提供的土壤水分保持功能及其价值贡献率有较大差异,按照大小依次为:高寒草原类、高寒草甸类,高寒荒漠类、高寒草甸草原类和温性山地草甸类;(2)草地对土壤水分保持量及其价值呈现出较强的阶段性变化过程;(3)由于各种草地类型所处地理区域不同、草地本身各种自然特点和整体生态功能的不同,青藏高原草地生态系统提供的土壤水分保持功能及其经济价值呈现出明显的地域分布规律:自西北至东南逐渐降低。应该说,由于青藏高原地域、地理和独特气候等原因所致,本文计算得出的青藏高原草地生态系统土壤水分保持功能及其价值的具体数值不一定十分准确,但是能在一定程度上反映出土壤水分保持功能的强大及其在生长季中随时间变化的动态过程和基本规律(这种规律性结论与前人研究结论一致),这是一种在区域尺度上揭示草地生态系统土壤水分保持功能及其价值动态变化过程的方法尝试,这也是对动态评估生态服务功能的一种有益尝试。     

粤西地区县域城镇化发展探讨——以广东省高州市为例

受地理条件、经济基础等因素的制约,粤西地区面临着城镇化进程滞后、整体发展层次偏低等一系列问题。加速推进县域城镇化是加快粤西地区经济发展,缩小与发达地区差距的内在要求和必然选择。以高州市为例,全面总结了粤西地区县域城镇化发展的特点及存在的主要问题,并在系统分析其城镇化发展机制的基础上,提出通过完善城镇体系,加强产业集聚,提升建设品位,增强城镇自我发展能力等促进县域城镇化发展。     

国外城市群经济联系空间研究进展

城市群经济联系的复杂性空间规律已经成为城市地理学、区域地理学、经济地理学研究的重点范畴。现代意义的城市群经济联系空间发展研究始于50年代,城市群体化现象大规模出现,城市化进程迅速发展的时期。经过二战前的启蒙发展、二战后-60年代的初步发展、70-80年代的丰富深化、90年代的全面发展阶段,50多年来城市群空间研究领域不断深化、研究队伍不断壮大、研究成果不断涌现、研究范式不断丰富,呈现多视角、多层次、多尺度,理论与实证、定性与定量相结合的研究体系,研究内容上文章着重对国外大都市区、都市带等城市群经济联系的空间组织与结构研究进行总结,并指出当前研究的热点与焦点。