A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.     

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Biodiversity Assessment of Mammal and Bird Species from Camera Trap Data in Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve,Gansu Province,China

Camera traps serve as an important tool for monitoring species diversity. We used data from camera traps set for capturing snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in the Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China, to assess species richness with respect to mammal and birds species. We also assessed survey efficiency for species detection, and conducted an initial analysis of species interactions. The survey effort of 10, 171 camera workdays yielded 2, 868 suitable animal image events involving 17 mammal and 20 bird species. Among these, the dhole (Cuon alpinus) is considered to be Endangered, the snow leopard and white-lipped deer (Cervus albirostris) Vulnerable, and the Pallas’s cat (Feli smanul), mountain weasel (Mustela altaica), Himalayan griffon (Gyps himalayensis) and cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) Near Threatened under the IUCN red list. Fourteen species were also listed as key protected wild animals according to China national standards. Both the rarefaction curves and richness estimators suggested our sampling for mammal and pheasant species is sufficient, while more survey efforts are still needed to detect other bird species. With a focus on the dominant species Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), occupancy models were used to estimate site use and detection probability for selected species, and to investigate predator-prey relationships between lynx on the one hand and woolly hare (Lepus oiostolus), pika (Ochotona spp.) and Tibetan partridge (Perdix hodgsoniae) on the other. We give recommendations on how to increase efficiency in camera-based species inventory and biodiversity monitoring.     

Arps递减开发模型

本文在Ａｒｐｓ递减产能预测模型的基础上提出了Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型,提出了开发速度,采出程度等开发指标的数学关系式,分析了参数Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的影响,提出了开发初期Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的确定方法,便于开发初期决策,制作了Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的ｌｏｇＶｄ－ｌｏｇＲｐ图版,ｌｏｇＶｄ－ｌｏｇ（Ｄｔ）图版,ｌｏｇＲｐ－ｌｏｇ（Ｄｔ）图版,提出了开发中晚期Ａｒｐｓ递减开发模型的判断方法,三点抛物线法和三     

FLOW MECHANISMS AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN COMPOUND CHANNELS

IINTRODUCTIONCompoundortWo-stagechannelshavereceivedconsiderableattentioninrecentyearsduetotheirrelevancetofloodstudiesinnaturalrivers,theirsignificanceinunderstandingrivermol'phology,andtheiruseinsomefloodalleviationschemeswherethefloodplainshavebeenartificiallyloweredtoproduceengineeredchannels.ThispaperreviewsworkwhichhasbeenundertakenintheUKFloodChannelFacility(FCF)overthepastdecade.TheACewasbuiltatHRWallingfordin1986,asalargescalenationalfacilityforhydraulicengineeringstUdies.T…     

Variability in quartz OSL signals caused by measurement uncertainties: Problems and solutions

We simulated the variability in measured quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signals and dose response curves (DRCs) caused by measurement uncertainties, including counting statistics and instrumental irreproducibility. We find that these measurement errors can give rise to large variations in the observed luminescence signal and contribute to among-aliquot or among-grain scatter in DRCs and equivalent dose (D_e) values. Different measurement systems (i.e., luminescence readers) may have different counting statistics properties and, hence, may exhibit differing extents of variation in the observed OSL signal, even for the same sample. Our simulation shows that the random measurement uncertainties may result in some grains or aliquots being ‘saturated’ (that is, the measured natural signal is consistent with, or lies above, the saturation level of the measured DRC) and that the rejection of these ‘saturated’ grains may result in a truncated D_e distribution, with D_e underestimation for samples with natural doses close to saturation (e.g., twice the characteristic saturation dose, D₀). We propose a new method to deal with this underestimation problem, in which standardised growth curves (SGCs) are established and the weighted-mean natural signal (L_n/T_n) from all measured grains is projected on to the corresponding SGCs to determine D_e. Our simulation results show that this method can produce reliable D_e estimates up to 5D₀, which is far beyond the conventional limit of ∼2D₀ using the standard SAR procedure.     

Residual slip of sliding blocks induced by near‐fault ground motions

The response of a rigid block supported on a horizontally moving foundation through a dry‐friction contact is investigated to near‐fault ground motions. Such motions can be thought of as consisting of a coherent component (‘pulse’) and an incoherent component, which can be described as a band‐limited ‘random noise’. The equation of motion of this strongly nonlinear system is reduced to a normalized form that reveals important parameters of the problem such as the critical acceleration ratio. The response of the sliding block to a set of uniformly processed near‐fault motions, covering a sufficiently wide range of magnitudes, is evaluated numerically for selected discrete values of the acceleration ratio. For each value of the critical acceleration ratio, the numerically computed residual slips are fitted with a Weibull (Gumbel type III) extreme value probability distribution. This allows the establishment of regression equations that describe accurately design sliding curves corresponding to various levels of non‐exceedance probability. The analysis reveals that the coherent component of motion contributes significantly to the response of the sliding block. Furthermore, the relevant acceleration in specifying the critical acceleration ratio is the (normalized) amplitude, α_{H_pulse}, of the pulse and not the (normalized) amplitude of the incoherent component α_H. Finally, the incoherent component is described quantitatively in terms of the root‐mean‐square acceleration a_RMS, and an attempt is made to understand its influence on the response of the sliding block. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dark matter and rotation curves of stars in galaxies

The dark matter accretion theory (around a central body) of the author on the basis of his 5‐dimensional Projective Unified Field Theory (PUFT) is applied to the orbital motion of stars around the center of the Galaxy. The departure of the motion from Newtonian mechanics leads to approximately flat rotation curves being in rough accordance with the empirical facts. The spirality of the motion is investigated.     

运用概率分布函数确定特高品位

地质品位是评价矿石质量的重要依据。样品的品位与频率的曲线为不对称的正态曲线时,通过对样品品位的数率统计,用正态分布积分函数计算某测定品位以上的样品在样本总体内允许出现的数量,确定其是否为特高品位。     

离散Fréchet距离在强震台站场地分类中的应用

当强震台站场地资料不完整时,所收集到的强震数据因缺乏准确的场地类别信息而难以有效利用。为解决这一问题,本文提出一种基于离散Fréchet距离的强震台站场地分类方法。将获取到的664个KiK-net台站场地按照《建筑抗震设计规范（GB 50011—2010）》进行分类,并构建2个数据集。利用数据集1得到Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地标准谱比曲线,并结合离散Fréchet距离对数据集2中的台站进行场地分类,统计分类成功率与误判率。统计结果表明,本文方法能较准确地对场地进行分类,且误判率在可接受范围内。将本文方法分类统计结果与斯皮尔曼秩相关系数法分类的成功率与误判率进行对比,结合本文方法分类后得到的平均谱比曲线,均可表明应用本文方法进行强震台站场地分类具有合理性。