地震灾害评估软件烈度衰减系数研究

河北省地震应急指挥技术系统建成后,地震灾害评估软件中烈度衰减系数采用经验参数,计算出的烈度范围与实际地震存在一定偏差。通过收集河北省及周边地区地震烈度数据,采用回归分析法得到新的烈度衰减系数,并通过软件验证,其计算的烈度范围比采用原系数计算的烈度范围更接近实际情况。     

大渡河长河坝水电站区域泥石流特征及危险性评价

2009年7月23日,四川省甘孜州康定县舍联乡长河坝水电站施工区响水沟发生特大泥石流灾害,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。响水沟是大渡河上游段右岸一级支沟,近百年来泥石流活动不明显。由于之前近一个月的连续降雨,沟谷内的不稳定堆积物已基本处于饱水状态,当日的强降雨直接诱发了此次泥石流灾害。本文根据现场调查资料,就该沟泥石流的形成条件、灾害成因及特征进行分析,并应用灰色系统理论关联分析方法和沟谷泥石流危险度计算分析综合评价其危险性。结果表明,在极端气象条件下,响水沟仍有可能发生中等至大规模暴雨型粘性泥石流。     

Sediments Quality Assessment of Jacarepaguá Lagoon: The Venue of the 2011 Rock in Rio

In order to aid in the efforts of the 2016 Olympic Games, the organizers of 2011 Rock in Rio decided to build a permanent venue next to the Olympic Park. The area is problematic from the geotechnical point of view since it presents soils with low shear strength, low permeability, and high plasticity, so major soil improvement works were carried out. Bored soil–cement columns were placed to increase soil shear strength and reduce compressibility. A meter thick fill composed of gneiss residual soil was placed and trenches were digged to drain rainwater. However, earlier studies conducted on Jacarepaguá Lagoon have detected the presence of heavy metals in these sediments. In this study, an environmental survey on the Jacarepaguá Lagoon sediments took place in order to choose a place where its sediments could be dredged to be later used in the drainage facilities. The results indicated areas where the threshold level 1 (low probability of adverse effects) issued by the general procedures for sediments quality assessments for dredging purposes, Resolution no 344 of the Brazilian Federal Government, was surpassed. Levels above the limits established for cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) were detected. Based on this consideration the State Environmental Agency issued a permit allowing the organizers of 2011 Rock in Rio to dredge an area close to City of Rock in order to obtain coarse sediments for the drainage facilities. In addition, it was found that those sediments were ideal for this application since their hydraulic conductivity is on the order of 10^?2 cm/s.     

IPCC AR4多模式对中国地区未来40 a雪水当量的预估

通过评估参加CMIP3计划的22 个GCM在20 世纪气候情景(20C3M)下中国地区雪水当量模拟能力的检验, 挑选出模拟能力较好的模式, 通过多模式集合方法, 对SEARS的模拟结果进行集合, 预估未来40 a雪水当量在中国地区的时空变化特征.结果表明: 在A1B情景下和B1情景下, 中国地区未来40 a雪水当量年际变化均呈减少趋势; 在A1B和B1情景下, 青藏高原地区、 华北平原地区、 长江中游地区及东北北部地区的雪水当量均呈减少趋势, 其中在昆仑山西段帕米尔高原地区减少最为显著, 其次为喜马拉雅山区和巴颜喀拉山东段地区.在中国北部的内蒙古高原地区、 云贵高原等部分地区的雪水当量则有所增加.总体上, A1B情景下比B1情景下雪水当量的减少更为明显. 2021-2050年雪水当量在青藏高原减少显著; 对于季节变化来说, 在秋冬季积雪的累积期, 雪水当量可能增加, 尤其在10-12月, 而在积雪消融的春夏季(2-6月)有所减少.     

Methods of social assessment in Marine Protected Area planning: Is public participation enough?

Addressing social and economic considerations is crucial to the success of Marine Protected Area (MPA) planning and management. Ineffective social assessment can alienate local communities and undermine the success of existing and future MPAs. It is rare to critique the success of methods used currently to incorporate social and economic considerations into MPA planning. Three Australian MPA planning processes covering three states and incorporating federal and state jurisdictions are reviewed in order to determine how potential social impacts were assessed and considered. These case studies indicate that Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is under-developed in Australian MPA planning. Assessments rely heavily on public participation and economic modelling as surrogates for dedicated SIA and are followed commonly by attitudinal surveys to gauge public opinion on the MPA after its establishment. The emergence of issues around public perception of the value of MPAs indicates the failure of some of these proposals to adequately consider social factors in planning and management. This perception may have potential implications for the long term success of individual MPAs. It may also compromise Australia's ability to meet international commitments for MPA targets to gazette at least 10% of all its marine habitats as MPAs. Indeed, this is demonstrated in two of the three case studies where social and economic arguments against MPAs have been used to delay or block the future expansion of the MPA network.     

广西铁山港海域沉积物重金属污染状况及潜在生态风险评价

对广西铁山港海域表层沉积物进行采集,对沉积物中重金属（Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、As、Hg）含量进行测定,并采用单因子指数法和Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法进行了评价。结果表明：六种重金属平均含量（×10-6）依次为Zn（61.1）>Pb（15.9）> Cu（13.1）>As（10.1）>Cd（0.27）>Hg（0.068）,均低于国家海洋沉积物一类标准;铁山港表层沉积物重金属单因子污染程度总体较轻,属于低污染水平,污染程度排序为Cu＞Zn ＞Hg＞As＞Cd＞Pb;铁山港海域沉积物重金属潜在生态风险排序为Hg＞Cd＞As＞Cu＞Pb＞Zn,所有站位潜在生态风险指数RI平均值为 63.11,潜在生态风险总体处于较低水平,潜在风险高值区出现在铁山港北部海域,主要受Hg的高潜在风险水平影响。     

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城乡一体化发展下的土地整治规划环境影响评价——以山东省诸城市为例

土地整治环境影响评价是土地整治规划编制过程中的一个重要环节,目前的土地整治环境影响评价多是从某方面评价土地整治规划对环境的影响。在城乡一体化发展的背景下,按照"全域规划、全域整治"的要求,通过识别土地整治规划对经济、社会和环境影响,建立评价指标体系,以山东省诸城市为例,对土地整治规划环境影响进行综合评价。     

青海湖流域防沙治沙生态效益现状评价及分析

本研究选择了青海湖周边沙漠化防治区,对研究区内的土壤和植被指标进行了野外观测,并对周边农牧户基本状况及生态环境保护意识进行了调查,建立了青海湖沙漠化治理生态效益评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定了指标权重,通过模糊评价的方法计算得出各指标的隶属度,最终得出以下结论:①通过专家系统打分建立判断矩阵,经计算得出生态效益各指标权重,明显看出,植被在青海湖沙漠化防治过程中具有非常重要的作用。②根据模糊评价结果得出研究区内目前防沙治沙生态效益差,说明青海湖防沙治沙工程生态恢复还处于初级阶段,综合治理生态系统建设未达到标准,生态系统仍非常脆弱。③通过农牧户基本情况及生态意识调查,发现研究区的农牧户生态环境保护意识较差,对生态环境了解及认识程度远远不够,还需要加强农牧民的生态环境保护意识。     

全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)经济评估概念框架:以中国稻鱼共生系统为例（英文）

全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS)项目是2002年由联合国粮农组织(FAO)发起,旨在建立全球重要农业文化遗产及其有关的景观、生物多样性、知识和文化保护体系,并在世界范围内得到认可与保护,使之成为可持续管理的基础。农业文化遗产地往往被认为比非遗产地更具经济价值,但目前还没有经济学分析来证明这一点,也没有任何针对农业文化遗产地的复杂的经济性能标准来长期监测其经济功能。本研究的目的在于建立一个经济评价方法,可用于遗产地与非遗产地之间比较。为此,本文选择了成本效益分析(CBA)方法。鉴于数据可得性的限制,经济分析的框架应该包括分析的方向、假设和数据要求,由此指导未来对GIAHS的经济评价。本研究选择中国青田稻鱼共生系统作为案例,根据数据可得性并针对不同活动(旅游,国内和国际市场的销售产品)以及相似系统间比较进行计算。