新疆天山山区干旱灾害综合风险评估与区划

以自然灾害风险四因子理论为基础,综合考虑研究区自然及社会经济情况,建立适合天山山区干旱灾害风险概念框架和指标体系,结合GIS技术进行了该地区干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：致灾因子危险性较高的区域是伊犁河谷及天山北坡一带,东疆地区和南疆西部危险性较低;承灾体脆弱性较高的区域为伊犁河谷和博州地区,吐鲁番、哈密及克州属于低脆弱区;孕灾环境敏感性较高地区主要分布在天山北坡的精河至吐鲁番一线、阿克苏地区西部、巴州北部等地,伊犁河谷、巴州北部、哈密市北部、南疆西部山区属低敏感区;防灾减灾能力整体表现为中东部高于西部区域;新疆天山山区干旱综合风险整体呈现出中部高、两端低的趋势,即中部的天山南北两侧干旱风险高于南疆西部和东疆地区。构建的评估模型总体反映了研究区旱灾综合风险水平,可为新疆天山草原灾害风险管理、应对气候变化、抗旱减灾行动提供参考。     

How is organic farming performing agronomically and economically in sub-Saharan Africa?

The potential of organic agriculture and agroecological approaches for improving food security in Africa is a controversial topic in global discussions. While there is a number of meta-analyses on the environmental, agronomic and financial performance of organic farming, most of the underlying data stems from on-station field trials from temperate regions. Data from sub-Sahara Africa in particular, as well as detailed real-farm data is scarce. How organic farming is implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and how it performs in a smallholder context remains poorly understood. We applied a novel observational two-factorial research design, which allowed to evaluate the impacts of i) interventions for introducing organic agriculture and ii) specific organic management practices on 1,645 farms from five case studies in Ghana and Kenya, which we closely monitored for 24 months. Among the farmers who have been exposed to the interventions, we found heterogeneous adoption of organic agriculture principles, depending on the intervention. Furthermore, we found rather passive than active organic management among farmers. Most yields and gross margins under organic management remained at similar levels as the conventional values in four of the case studies. In one case study, however, coffee, maize and macadamia nut yields increased by 127–308% and farm-level gross margins over all analysed crops by 292%. Pooling our data across all case studies, we found significantly higher (+144%) farm-level gross margins on organically managed farms than on conventional farms. This indicates the potential of organic and agroecological approaches if implemented well. Based on our observations, we argue for improving the implementation of organic agriculture projects in settings with smallholder farmers. Limited capacities, lack of appropriate inputs and market access are major agronomic and institutional challenges to be addressed. Furthermore, we argue for supporting a differentiated debate about which types of organic farming are really desirable by classifying approaches to organic farming according to i) their intention to work organically and ii) the degree of following the organic principles. This will support the design and implementation of targeted policy interventions for stimulating sustainability of farming systems and rural development.     

如何做好地灾危险性评估备案管理

地灾危险性评估备案是地灾危险性评估质量把关的最后一道关口。严格审查和做好备案前提条件、评审专家组成、专家现场勘察、评估报告的评审和评估报告的备案,才能确保地灾危险性评估的质量。     

四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究

汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。     

太原市饮用水源地水质评价研究

运用层次分析法对汾河流域静乐县断面、岚县断面及娄烦县断面的水体质量进行评价,并确定水质优劣顺序,为优先污染控制以及水环境决策提供科学依据。评价结果为岚县断面监测水质较好,娄烦县断面次之,静乐县断面监测水质较差。在水质较差的断面应加大环保投入,加强水质管理,从根本上改善流域水质现状。     

三姑泉域水环境质量评价及水污染控制对策

为确保三姑泉域水资源的可持续开发利用,采用常规方法对泉域水环境质量进行了评价。结果表明:三姑泉域的地表水和地下水已不同程度遭受污染,水环境的污染与煤矿开采以及工业废水和生活污水的不合理排放有关。结合当地实际提出水污染控制对策。研究成果为三姑泉域水资源管理和保护提供科学依据。     

降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型

通过分析SHALSTAB和TRIGRS等浅层滑坡物理确定性模型存在的问题,提出了基于降雨入渗动态守恒的瞬态降雨入渗模型,该模型考虑了初期降雨过程、降雨历程以及饱和非饱和入渗过程,证明了SHALSTAB模型是该模型的特殊形式,并克服了TRIGRS模型参数繁多及一维入渗路径的问题.将无限边坡模型、瞬态降雨入渗模型和GIS进行耦合,研发了可用于大范围降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测的集成系统,根据边坡的地质条件、地形参数和降雨特征即可对降雨条件下浅层滑坡的危险性进行评估.     

西宁—乐都地区土地质量地球化学评估

通过对西宁—乐都地区的土地质量地球化学评估发现,该地区土壤肥力适中,土壤环境清洁,适宜发展现代农牧业。同时,也发现沿湟水河工农业发达的地区,土壤中重金属元素虽还未达到引起污染的程度,但其含量要高于其他地区,土壤环境有恶化趋势,应引起相当的重视。当地土壤中普遍高F可能与当地较普遍的地方性F中毒有一定联系。     

平煤八矿己15-13030工作面煤层顶板突水溃砂可能性评价

煤矿突水溃砂灾害的发生与煤层上履含水层性质、岩性特征及破坏程度等诸多因素有关。通过研究己15煤层顶板基岩与第四系底部的含、隔水性能及顶板覆岩岩性组合特征,计算出一次全部开采3．6m煤层时,其导水裂缝带最小发育高度为38．46m,最大为47．95m,确定了采煤活动导致的上覆顶板含水层发生水力联系的范围,认为己15—13030工作面煤层开采时发生顶板突水的可能性不大;计算一次全部开采3．6m煤层时,防砂安全垂高最大为23．5m．防塌安全煤岩柱最大垂高为12．5m,结合煤层顶板基岩及第四系底部岩层的水文地质特征,认为工作面回采时顶板溃砂的可能性也不大。强调在生产过程中,要加强顶板涌水的观测,同时增加现有排水系统的排水能力,从而为工作面安全回采提供支持。     

Comparison and relative quality assessment of the GLC2000, GLOBCOVER,MODIS and ECOCLIMAP land cover data sets at the African continental scale

Land cover dynamics at the African continental scale is of great importance for global change studies. Actually, four satellite-derived land cover maps of Africa now available, e.g. ECOCLIMAP, GLC2000, MODIS and GLOBCOVER, are based on images acquired in the 2000s. This study aims at stressing the compliances and the discrepancies between these four land cover classifications systems. Each of them used different mapping initiatives and relies on different mapping standards, which supports the present investigation. In order to do a relative comparison of the four maps, a preamble was to reconcile their thematic legends into more aggregated categories after a projection into the same spatial resolution. Results show that the agreement between the four land cover products is between 56 and 69%. While all these land cover datasets show a reasonable agreement in terms of surface types and spatial distribution patterns, mapping of heterogeneous landscapes in the four products is not very successful. Land cover products based on remote sensing imagery can indeed significantly be improved by using smarter algorithms, better timing of image acquisition, improved class definitions. Either will help to improve the accuracy of future land cover maps at the African continental scale. Data producers may use the areas of spatial agreement for training area selection while users might need to verify the information in the areas of disagreement using additional data sources.