Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cracking risk of partially saturated porous media—Part I: Microporoelasticity model

Drying of deformable porous media results in their shrinkage, and it may cause cracking provided that shrinkage deformations are hindered by kinematic constraints. This is the motivation to develop a thermodynamics‐based microporoelasticity model for the assessment of cracking risk in partially saturated porous geomaterials. The study refers to 3D representative volume elements of porous media, including a two‐scale double‐porosity material with a pore network comprising (at the mesoscale) 3D mesocracks in the form of oblate spheroids, and (at the microscale) spherical micropores of different sizes. Surface tensions prevailing in all interfaces between solid, liquid, and gaseous matters are taken into account. To establish a thermodynamics‐based crack propagation criterion for a two‐scale double‐porosity material, the potential energy of the solid is derived, accounting—in particular—for mesocrack geometry changes (main original contribution) and for effective micropore pressures, which depend (due to surface tensions) on the pore radius. Differentiating the potential energy with respect to crack density parameter yields the thermodynamical driving force for crack propagation, which is shown to be governed by an effective macrostrain. It is found that drying‐related stresses in partially saturated mesocracks reduce the cracking risk. The drying‐related effective underpressures in spherical micropores, in turn, result in a tensile eigenstress of the matrix in which the mesocracks are embedded. This way, micropores increase the mesocracking risk. Model application to the assessment of cracking risk during drying of argillite is the topic of the companion paper (Part II). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introducing a new conceptual instantaneous unit hydrograph model based on a hydraulic approach

ABSTRACT

A novel approach is introduced for simulation of instantaneous unit hydrographs (IUHs). The model consists of a series of linear reservoirs that are connected to each other, and is referred to as the inter-connected linear reservoir model (ICLRM). By assuming the flow between two reservoirs is a linear function of the difference between the water levels in the reservoirs, a system of first-order linear differential equations is obtained as the ICLRM governing equation. By solving the equations, the discharge from the last reservoir is considered as an IUH. A small-scale laboratory device was constructed for the simulation of IUHs using the model. By studying four hydrographs extracted from the literature, and simulating them using both the ICLRM and the Nash model, it is concluded that the ICLRM can predict these hydrographs more accurately than the Nash model. Due to the simplicity of the construction and operation of the ICLRM and, more importantly, its visual aspect, the ICLRM may be considered as an effective educational tool for studying IUHs.     

基于等价权抗差估计和线性规划的天线曲面拟合算法

现有天线曲面拟合算法均基于最小二乘法,难以消除多个粗差对拟合结果的影响。本文基于等价权抗差估计思想,利用线性规划计算残差初值,再进行选权迭代计算。通过算例,证明本文方法能较好地探查多个粗差,且计算结果精度更高。     

线图形简化与移位算子的协同方法

在地图综合过程中,线的图形简化和移位算子通常是分别执行的,图形简化和移位有时都会产生新的空间冲突。本文试图把这两种算子进行协同,避免在地图综合过程中进行空间冲突的多次探测,提高地图综合数据处理的效率。本文通过把线图形简化转换为线上的点移位,并构建邻近地图目标之间的移位传播路径,在考虑空间上下文关系和地图感受规则的前提下,使移位过程能考虑到线图形简化,并尽量保持有关地图目标的空间特征。最后,以道路和其周边的建筑物群为例,验证了该算法的有效性和可行性。     

New tectonic map of Northern-Central-Eastern Asia:Position and evolution of Mesozoic sedimentary basins

The beginning of the XXI century was marked a new rising of the international tectonic cartography as a result of analysis and synthesis of a huge volume of geological information obtained for the territory of Asia especially during the last 30 years. The previous tectonic maps for Asia were created in the 1960 s--1970 s of the last century. Since that time,the national geological surveys have compiled tectonic maps exclusively in the limits of their own state boundaries. The international cooperation of five countries since 2002( Russia,China,Mongolia,Kazakhstan and Republic of Korea) gave a unique possibility to join the data into a united cartographic form as Atlas of Geological Maps( since 2002-Atlas of Geological Maps of Central Asia and since 2007-Atlas of Geological Maps of Northern-Central-Eastern Asia). Both atlases include four maps: geological,tectonic,metallogenic,and energy resources. Tectonic Map of Northern-Central-Eastern Asia and Adjacent Areas at scale 1 ∶ 2 500 000 was the key map for further compilation of the metallogenic and energy resources( coal,oil and gas) maps. By this reason,special attention was given to showing the structure and composition of the Mesozoic sedimentary basins in Northern-Central- Eastern Asia as the most perspective structures for oil-and-gas and coal prospect.     

Application of Linear Mean-Square Estimation in Ocean Engineering

The attempt to obtain long-term observed data around some sea areas we concern is usually very hard or even impossible in practical offshore and ocean engineering situations. In this paper, by means of linear mean-square estimation method, a new way to extend short-term data to long-term ones is developed. The long-term data about concerning sea areas can be constructed via a series of long-term data obtained from neighbor oceanographic stations, through relevance analysis of different data series. It is effective to cover the insufficiency of time series prediction method’s overdependence upon the length of data series, as well as the limitation of variable numbers adopted in multiple linear regression model. The storm surge data collected from three oceanographic stations located in Shandong Peninsula are taken as examples to analyze the number-selection effect of reference oceanographic stations (adjacent to the concerning sea area) and the correlation coefficients between sea sites which are selected for reference and for engineering projects construction respectively. By comparing the N-year return-period values which are calculated from observed raw data and processed data which are extended from finite data series by means of the linear mean-square estimation method, one can draw a conclusion that this method can give considerably good estimation in practical ocean engineering, in spite of different extreme value distributions about raw and processed data.     

Petrochemistry of Granitoids Along the Loei Fold Belt,Northeastern Thailand

Petrochemical characteristics of Permo‐Triassic granitoids from five regions (i) Mung Loei, (ii) Phu Thap Fah – Phu Thep, (iii) Phetchabun, (iv) Nakon Sawan – Lobburi, and (v) Rayong – Chantaburi along the Loei Fold Belt (LFB), northeastern Thailand were studied. The LFB is a north–south trending 800 km fold belt that hosts several gold and base‐metal deposits. The granitoids consist of monzogranite, granodiorite, monzodiorite, tonalite, quartz‐syenite, and quartz‐rich granitoids. These are composed of quartz, plagioclase, and K‐feldspar with mafic minerals such as hornblende and biotite. Accessory minerals, such as titanite, zircon, magnetite, ilmenite, apatite, garnet, rutile, and allanite are also present. Magnetic susceptibilities in the SI unit of granitoids vary from 6.5 × 10⁻³ to 15.2 × 10⁻³ in Muang Loei, from 0.1 × 10⁻³ to 29.4 × 10⁻³ in Phu Thap Fah – Phu Thep, from 2.7 × 10⁻³ to 34.6 × 10⁻³ in Petchabun, from 2.4 × 10⁻³ to 14.1 × 10⁻³ in Nakon Sawan – Lobburi, and from 0.03 × 10⁻³ to 2.8 × 10⁻³ in Rayong – Chantaburi. Concentration of major elements suggests that these intermediate to felsic plutonic rocks have calc‐alkaline affinities. Concentration of REE of the granitoids normalized to chondrite displays moderately elevated light REE (LREE) and relatively flat heavy (HREE) patterns, with distinct depletion of Eu. Rb versus Y/Nb and Nb/Y tectonic discrimination diagrams illustrate that the granitoids from Muang Loei, Phu Thap Fah – Phu Thep, Phetchabun, Nakon Sawan – Lobburi, and Rayong – Chantaburi formed in continental volcanic‐arc setting. New age data from radiometric K‐Ar dating on K‐feldspar from granodiorite in Loei and Nakhon Sawan areas yielded 171 ± 3 and 221 ± 5 Ma, respectively. K‐Ar dating on hornblende separated from diorite in Lobburi yielded 219 ± 8 Ma. These ages suggest that magmatism of Muang Loei occurred in the Middle Jurassic, and Nakon Sawan – Lobburi occurred in Late Triassic. Both Nb versus Y and Rb versus (Y + Nb) diagrams and age data indicate that Nakon Sawan – Lobburi granitoids intruded in Late Triassic at Nong Bua, Nakon Sawan province and Khao Wong Phra Jun, Lobburi province in volcanic arc setting. Muang Loei granitoids at the Loei province formed later in Middle Jurassic also in volcanic arc setting. The negative δ³⁴S_CDT values of ore minerals from the skarn deposit suggest that the I‐type magma has been influenced by light biogenic sulfur from local country rocks. The Au‐Cu‐Fe‐Sb deposits correlate with the magnetite‐series granitoids in Phetchabun, Nakon Sawan – Lobburi and Rayong – Chantaburi areas. Metallogeny of the Au and Cu‐Au skarn deposits and the epithermal Au deposit is related to adakitic rocks of magnetite‐series granitoids from Phetchabun and Nakon Sawan areas. All mineralizations along the LFB are generated in the volcanic arc related to the subduction of Paleo‐Tethys. The total Al (^TAl) content of biotite of granitoids increases in the following order: granitoids associated with Fe and Au deposit < with Cu deposit < barren granitoids. X_Mg of biotite in granitoids in Muang Loei indicates the crystallization of biotite in magnetite‐series granitoids under high oxygen fugacity conditions. On the other hand, low X_Mg (<0.4) of biotite in magnetite‐series granitoids in Phu Thap Fah – Phu Thep and Rayong – Chantaburi indicates a reduced environment and low oxygen fugacity, associated with Au skarn deposit (Phu Thap Fah) and Sb‐Au deposit (Bo Thong), respectively. The magnetite‐series granitoids at Phu Thap Fah having low magnetic susceptibilities and low X_Mg of biotite were formed by reduction of initially oxidizing magnetite‐series granitic magma by interaction with reducing sedimentary country rocks as suggested by negative δ³⁴S_CDT values.     

余姚—丽水断裂带嵊州地区燕山期主要构造特征

余姚—丽水断裂带是浙东南地区活动时间长、延伸远、发育比较宽的一条NE—NNE展布的断裂构造带,在浙江嵊州地区上火山岩系磨石山群和下火山岩系永康群中构造形迹表现十分明显。余姚—丽水断裂带由一系列NE—NNE向控制区内白垩纪盆地形成与发展的正断层,以及NE—NNE走向、自北西向南东逆冲的叠瓦状断层和轴迹呈NE—NNE向的褶皱组成。通过对其构造活动特征及控制新老地层的时序关系研究,结合区域构造活动规律和时空演化关系等综合分析认为: 正断层形成时间较早,控制白垩纪盆地的形成和发展,与早白垩世岩石圈伸展减薄形成的拉张作用密切相关; 叠瓦状逆冲断层及斜歪褶皱、紧闭同斜褶皱等褶、断构造组合形成于晚白垩世之后,其动力学机制可能与古太平洋构造域向太平洋构造域的转换效应有关。研究成果为深入探讨浙东地区燕山期构造演化提供了新的素材和资料。     

Application of Geochemistry and VNIR Spectroscopy in Mapping Heavy Metal Pollution of Stream Sediments in the Takab Mining Area, NW of Iran

This study considered the possibility of using visible and near infrared (VNIR) spectral absorption feature parameters (SAFPs) in predicting the concentration and mapping the distribution of heavy metals in sediments of the Takab area. In total, 60 sediment samples were collected along main streams draining from the mining districts and tailing sites, in order to measure the concentration of As, Co, V, Cu, Cr, Ni, Hg, Ti, Pb and Zn and the reflectance spectra (350–2500 nm). The quantitative relationship between SAFPs (Depth500nm, R610/500nm, R1344/778nm, Area500nm, Depth2200nm, Area2200nm, Asym2200nm) and geochemical data were assessed using stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) and enter multiple linear regression (EMLR) methods. The results showed a strong negative correlation between Ni and Cr with Area2200nm, a significant positive correlation between As and Asym2200nm, Ni and Co with Depth2200nm, as well as Co, V and total values with Depth500nm. The EMLR method eventuated in a significant prediction result for Ni, Cr, Co and As concentrations based on spectral parameters, whereas the prediction for Zn, V and total value was relatively weak. The spatial distribution pattern of geochemical data showed that mining activities, along with the natural weathering of base metal occurrences and rock units, has caused high concentrations of heavy metals in sediments of the Sarough River tributaries.