重力资料的三维密度反演

分别论述了在空间域与频率域中由重力资料反演三维密度分布的理论及其实现的方法,并提出了一种简便、实用的频率域三维密度反演算法。     

基于伴随方法的线性台阵背景噪声面波和远震体波联合成像研究

伴随层析成像（Adjoint Tomography）通过求解全波方程来准确模拟地震波在复杂介质中的传播,并利用波形信息来反演地下结构,是新一代的高分辨率成像方法.其中3-D伴随层析成像需要庞大的计算资源,而2-D反演相对更具计算效率.面波和远震体波是研究地壳上地幔速度结构的重要方法,它们对S波速度及Moho面的敏感度不同,通过联合反演,可以得到更为准确的S波速度结构及Moho面.通过两种数据的高度互补性,本文提出基于伴随方法的线性台阵背景噪声面波和远震体波联合成像方法,同时约束台阵下方S波速度结构及Moho面形态.我们将该方法应用到符合华北克拉通岩石圈典型结构特征的理论模型上,测试结果表明联合反演方法优势明显,相比于面波伴随层析成像,能获得更高分辨率的S波速度结构,同时能精准约束Moho面形态.相比于体波伴随层析成像,联合反演能有效压制高频假象,降低波形反演过程中的非线性化程度.本研究有望提供一种更为高效精准的线性台阵成像方法,搭建联合伴随层析成像理论框架,提升岩石圈成像分辨率,并为后续其他类型波形数据的引入提供思路和方法.     

双线偏振雷达的降水估测Ⅰ. 排序配对逼近法

提出使用新的途径──排序配对逼近法得出的双线偏振雷达降水估测ＺＲ关系参数因子比线性拟合法具有更好的代表性,且能体现提高区域降水估测精度,也能根据实际情形采用其它的误差类型作为获取及衡量参数的标准。对指数函数形式的ＺＲ关系来说,其参数因子Ａ０,ＡＨ及ＡＤＲ分别为０．０１６８４,０．０９６和－０．４１６５。该方法可以推广应用到多个变元及参数因子的复杂函数中。     

On solution of the inverse problem for confined aquifer flow via maximum likelihood

Joint estimation of transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) in a confined aquifer is done via maximum likelihood (ML). The differential equation of groundwater flow is discretized by the finite-element method, leading to equation _t+x _t=u _t. Elements of matrices and , as well as estimated covariance matrix of noise termu _t, are functions of T and S. By minimizing the negative loglikelihood function corresponding to discretized groundwater flow equation with respect to T and S, ML estimators are obtained. The ML approach is found to yield accurate estimates of T and S (within 9 and 10% of their actual values, respectively) and showed quadratic convergence in Newton's search technique. Prediction of aquifer response, using ML estimators, results in estimated piezometric heads accurate to ±0.5 m from their actual, exact values. Statistical properties of ML estimators are derived and some basic results for statistical inference are given.     

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pre‐ and post‐test mathematical modelling of a plan‐asymmetric reinforced concrete frame building

Pre‐ and post‐test analyses of the structural response of a three‐storey asymmetric reinforced concrete frame building were performed, aimed at supporting test preparation and performance as well as studying mathematical modelling. The building was designed for gravity loads only. Full‐scale pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed in the ELSA laboratory in Ispra. In the paper the results of initial parametric studies, of the blind pre‐test predictions, and of the post‐test analysis are summarized. In all studies a simple mathematical model, with one‐component member models with concentrated plasticity was employed. The pre‐test analyses were performed using the CANNY program. After the test results became available, the mathematical model was improved using an approach based on a displacement‐controlled analysis. Basically, the same mathematical model was used as in pre‐test analyses, except that the values of some of the parameters were changed. The OpenSees program was employed. Fair agreement between the test and numerical results was obtained. The results prove that relatively simple mathematical models are able to adequately simulate the detailed seismic response of reinforced concrete frame structures to a known ground motion, provided that the input parameters are properly determined. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于改进的Elman神经网络的中长期径流预报

径流中长期预报长期以来一直都是人们关注的热点研究问题。现行的径流预报方法很多,传统的有时间序列法,多元回归分析法等,这些方法虽然简单易用,但是如果预报对象提供的样本容量偏小或者因子选择不够合理,都会造成预报精度偏差过大,难于有效的指导工程应用。鉴于此,本文提出一种改进的采用局部回归的Elman神经网络方法。并应用到凤滩水库优化调度的径流预报中。结果表明,与回归分析法、BP网络相比较,该方法不仅提高了算法的效率,而且提高了预报的精度,在径流预报中具有有效性和优越性。     

基于实测值分段线性内插模型的InSAR视线向同震位错分解-以青藏高原昆仑山MemＳsub8.1地震为例x,auto,auto,415px);}stylehf=httprztl.com business week launch

利用现场GPS定位的实测值，在尝试过最小二乘拟合并取得初步成果的基础上，进而采用更符合破裂带形态的线性立方插值函数，在破裂带主断面上，建立起一种理论与实测相结合的InSAR视线向(LOS)变化量的分解方程，得到了InSAR视线向位移分解的具有唯一性的解析解. 本文的解析法吸纳了GPS定点实测值的精度优势，利用InSAR全天候、准实时获取连续形变场的技术特点，通过数学近似，最终获得了主破裂带上连续变化的水平位错及垂直位错同震形变曲线.      

西藏阿里札达盆地早更新世早期沉积及其古气候与古环境变化

综合分析了西藏阿里札达盆地早更新世早期的多种与气候环境变化密切相关的地质记录，结果表明该区早更新世早期的沉积可划分为3种不同的沉积相和4个岩性段；古气候与古环境变化可划分为4个阶段：（1）2．68-2．45Ma。为冲洪积相沉积。冻融褶皱开始出现，植被以乔木为主，主要为松、藜、蒿，属山地寒温气候；（2）2．45-2．11Ma，为冲洪积相，地层中冻融褶皱多呈扭曲状，草本植物迅速上升，显示出灌木草原气候特征，气候变得凉爽干燥；（3）2．11-1．49Ma，沉积相为冲洪积相-冰缘沉积相，以冰缘沉积相为主，冻融褶皱层开始增多，出现了喜凉的介形类化石。草本植物数量和种类达到最大，灌木也相对增加，显示气候进一步趋于干旱；（4）1．49-1．36Ma，为冰湖沉积相。地层中普遍出现冻融褶皱，喜凉的介形类化石丰度很高，草本植物有小幅下降，但蕨类植物增加幅度较大，显示了干冷草原气候特征。气候干旱寒冷。