Calculating Auroral Oval Pattern by AE Index

The relationship between the auroral oval pattern, i.e., location, size, shape, and intensity, and the auroral electrojet activity index （AE index） is studied. It is found that the maximal auroral intensity is elliptically distributed, and the lengths of semimajor and semiminor axes are positively correlated to AE. The intensity along the normal of the auroral oval can be satisfyingly described by a Gaussian distribution, and the maximum and the full width at half maximum of the Gaussian distribution ave both positively correlated to AE. Based on these statistical results, a series of experimental formulas as a function of AE are developed to calculate the location, size, shape, and intensity of the auroral oval. These formulas are validated by the auroral images released by SWPC/NOAA.     

基于5分钟雷达资料降水估测模型的比较

For the Z-R relationship in radar-based rainfall estimation, the distribution of corresponding R values for a given Z value （or the corresponding Z value for a given R value） may be highly skewed. However, the traditional power-law model is physically deduced and fitted under the normal-distribution presumption of radar wave echoes associated with a rain rate value, and it may not be very appropriate. Considering this problem, the authors devised several generalized linear models with different forms and distribution presumptions to represent the Z-R relationship. Radar-reflectivity scans observed by a CINRAD/SC Doppler radar and 5-minute rainfall accumulation recorded by 10 ground gauges were used to fit these models. All data used in this study were collected during some large rainfalls of the period from 2005 to 2007. The radar and all gauges were installed in the catchment of the Yishu River, a branch of the Huaihe River in China. Three models based on normal distribution and a dBZ presumption of gamma distribution were fitted using maximum-likelihood techniques, which were resolved by genetic algorithms. Comparisons of estimated maximized likelihoods based on assumptions of gamma and normal distribution showed that all generalized linear models （GLMs） of presumed gamma distribution were better fitted than GLMs based on normal distribution. In a comparison of maximum-likelihood, the differences between these three models were small. Three error statistics were used to assess the agreement between radar estimated rainfall and gauge rainfall： relative bias （B）, root mean square error （RMSE）, and correlation coefficient （r）. The results showed that no one model was excellent in all criteria. On the whole, the GLM-based models gave smaller relative bias than the traditional power-law model. It is suggested that validations conducted in many previous works should have been made against a specific criterion but overlooked others.     

华南秋季蒸发量的时空演变特征

利用华南区域66个气象站点1960～2004年的观测数据分析了华南秋季蒸发皿蒸发量和实际蒸发量的时空变化.分析结果表明:华南中部和西北部是华南秋季蒸发皿蒸发量的两个主要气候变异中心区,华南中部秋季蒸发皿蒸发量具有以年代际变化为主的特征,并且在45年内总体上呈下降趋势.在影响蒸发皿蒸发量的因子中,太阳辐射与蒸发皿蒸发量的相关性最好,呈显著的正相关.对实际蒸发量而言,华南中部和西部偏西地区则是两个主要的变异中心,两区域的秋季实际蒸发量具有以年际变化为主的特征,降水对华南秋季实际蒸发量的影响最为显著,华南秋季实际蒸发量一般都在蒸发皿蒸发量的40%左右,并且比值总体上呈现微弱的由南向北递增趋势.     

强降水时蒸发常见错情及措施

对山东省2009年7-8月报表错情统计,发现强降水时蒸发错情达18.6条,其原因是观测员对《地面气象观测规范》理解不够准确,审核员过于武断,对规范理解过于僵化,将观测员处理正确的记录统计为错情.对德州2000-2010年及平原2008-2010年强降水时对蒸发所采取的措施比较得出:液态降水采用增加溢流桶法效果最好,但它不适用固态降水;加盖法简单易行,适用于液态和固态降水,但只适用于守班期间.因此针对不同降水性质,应采取不同措施,确保蒸发记录的准确性.     

地表下沉系数选取的LWPSO-BP方法研究

针对BP神经网络自身收敛速度慢、容易陷入局部极小点的缺点,本文以线性下降惯性权重粒子群优化算法(LLWPSO)为前处理器,优化BP网络的权值和阈值,利用实测资料数据,建立LWPSO-BP的地表下沉系数预计模型,并同普通BP模型预计结果对比结果表明:LWPSO-BP神经网络不仅训练速度快,而且预测精度明显提高,该模型对地...     

新的震级国家标准在陕西地震台网的应用

选取陕西地震台网及邻省共享台站记录到的2008年5月至2021年5月104次地震资料,应用新的震级国家标准GB 17740—2017《地震震级的规定》得到新国标震级。研究表明：①新的地方性震级M_L比原规范的M_L震级系统偏大0.3左右,这主要是二者的量规函数不同造成的;②宽频带面波震级M_{S （BB）}和矩震级M_W震级基本一致,无系统偏差,大多数地震震级偏差为-0.1—0.1;③宽频带面波震级M_{S （BB）}比面波震级M_{S （CENC）}整体偏小0.2,二者之间存在系统偏差;④绝大多数地震的面波震级M_{S （CENC）}比M_W偏大0.2—0.3,二者之间存在系统偏差。     

回归分析在确定多金属硫化物矿石密度中的应用

在研究多金属硫化物矿床的特点,分析以往矿床勘查中确定矿石密度值难点的基础上,通过建立矿石密度值与矿石各组分的多元线性回归数学模型,预测矿床的矿石密度值。     

大气影响下平顶山膨胀土地表蒸发研究

为探索膨胀土的蒸发特征,对平顶山市区膨胀土进行了不同初始含水量土体的室内和室外蒸发试验研究,测试了蒸发过程中土体含水量在不同深度的变化。对室内、外试验结果及其差异性进行了分析,发现室内和室外土样的蒸发强度差别较大,但是蒸发系数相差不大,蒸发系数与土体含水量、含水量梯度有较强的相关性。地表土体接近饱和时,蒸发系数在1上下波动。随着蒸发的持续,蒸发系数随地表含水量降低而下降,含水量梯度随地表含水量的降低而升高。当地表含水量达到残余含水量时,含水量梯度达到极大值,持续蒸发含水量梯度将继续减小。土体蒸发系数与蒸发历时进行拟合,呈较好的对数关系。     

断陷盆地高原面典型岩溶洼地旱季土壤水氢氧同位素时空差异特征

以云南省蒙自断陷盆地东山山区典型岩溶洼地为研究区,通过野外采集土壤样品与实验室测试分析相结合的方法,运用稳定同位素技术研究旱季不同深度土壤水氢氧同位素组成,揭示区内土壤水氢氧同位素时空变化特征,为进一步研究云南断陷盆地山区土壤水分运移机制和当地农业合理利用和管理水资源提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)土壤水δD、δ18O同位素值的变化范围分别为-128.3‰~-27.6‰和-17.5‰~2.5‰,平均值分别为-96.1‰±20.7‰和-12.3‰±3.7‰,降雨转化为土壤水和水分在土壤中重新分布时发生一定程度的氢氧同位素分馏。(2)旱季两个月份土壤水氢氧同位素组成发生变化,4月份土壤水δD、δ18O同位素平均值分别为-86.3‰±23.83‰和-10.6‰±4.3‰,显著高于2月份(δD:-106.1‰±9.5‰;δ18O:-14.1‰±1.6‰)(p<0.05),主要和4月份土壤水的蒸发作用强烈有关。(3)在空间上,坡地与洼地之间土壤水氢氧同位素组成存在差异,2月份坡地与洼地之间土壤水δD、δ18O值差异显著(p<0.05),洼地土壤水δD、δ18O比坡地偏轻;4月份坡地与洼地之间土壤水δD、δ18O值差异不显著(p>0.05)。(4)土壤垂直剖面方向上土壤水δD、δ18O值随着土壤深度的增加而减小,浅层土壤水δ18O和深层土壤水δ18O存在显著差异,2月份浅层土壤水δ18O比深层土壤水δ18O偏正2.8‰,4月份浅层土壤水δ18O比深层土壤水δ18O偏正10.5‰。      

湖北武汉典型地区岩溶发育特征分析

本文在分析以往地质资料和完成的武汉市1∶5万岩溶塌陷调查成果的基础上,从武汉市岩溶发育的形态及规模、不同岩溶条带、不同构造条件、不同地层、不同埋深和不同地貌七个方面,分别系统总结了武汉市典型地区岩溶发育的特征。区内岩溶总体中等发育,岩溶形态主要为溶隙、溶孔以及小规模溶洞;在水平方向上存在5个走向NWW—SEE、各自相对独立的碳酸盐岩条带,其中白沙洲条带岩溶最为发育,在垂直方向上浅层溶蚀发育;各地层的岩溶发育强度依次为P2q>T1d>C2h+d>T1-2j;在褶皱核部或转折端、断层带附近、长江一级阶地、山前补给局部地区等地下水交替循环强烈地带和可溶岩与非可溶岩接触带,岩溶发育相对强烈。结论可为武汉市岩溶塌陷地质灾害防治提供地质基础支撑。