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941.
INTRODUCTIONEarthquake induced byreservoir is a kind of crust motion andis an outcome of the joint functionof current crustal movement andreservoir storage .The cause of reservoir-induced earthquakesincludesthe decrease of strengthand elasticity modulus of rockonthe one hand,andthe decrease of friction offault surface because of water permeation onthe other .The more large-scale reservoirs built ,the more reservoir-induced earthquakes will happen.As iswell known,reservoir-induced earthqua… 相似文献
942.
The diagenesis of modern and ancient carbonatesedi ments has been widely studied and systematicallyreviewed since the 1960s (e .g. Moore ,2001 ,1989 ;Wang et al ., 1994 , 1991 ; McIlreath and Morrow,1990 ; Tucker and Bathurst , 1990 ; Schneidermannand Harris , 1985 ; Longman, 1980 ; Bathurst ,1975) . With the development of sequence stratigra-phy and its more widespread application, discussionabout the relationship between diagenesis and se-quence stratigraphy/sea-level changes ,as well as… 相似文献
943.
944.
以1975年的MSS影像、1992年的TM影像和2004年的中巴资源卫星影像为数据源,对北京市建成区近30 a的扩展变化进行动态监测,运用计算机监督分类技术提取了北京市建成区30 a来的扩展变化信息,并分析出北京市建成区的变化是以老市区为中心向四周辐射蔓延的规律,为北京市未来城市规划与开发提供参考。 相似文献
945.
Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram 总被引:29,自引:1,他引:29
Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schröter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments. 相似文献
946.
Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review's treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review's treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report's estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change. 相似文献
947.
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations. 相似文献
948.
Climatic change during the last 4000 years in the southern Tarim Basin,Xinjiang, northwest China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this study, a ca. 4000 cal. yr ancient lacustrine (or wetland) sediment record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin is used to reconstruct the history of climate change. Six radiocarbon dates on organic matter were obtained. δ18O and δ13C of carbonate, pollen and sediment particle size were analysed for climate proxies. The proxies indicate that a drier climate prevailed in the area before ca. 1010 BC and during period 1010 BC–AD 500 climate then changed rapidly and continuously from dry to moist, but after about AD 500 climate generally shows dry condition. Several centennial‐scale climatic events were revealed, with the wettest spell during AD 450–550, and a relatively wetter interval between AD 930–1030. Pollen results show that regional climate may influence human agricultural activities. Spectral analysis of mean grain size (MGS) proxy reveals statistically pronounced cyclic signals, such as ca. 200 yr, ca. 120 yr, ca. 90 yr, ca. 45 yr and ca. 33 or 30 yr, which may be associated with solar activities, implying that solar variability plays an important role in the decadal‐ and centennial‐scale climate variations in the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
949.
The Marmes Rockshelter archaeological site in southeastern Washington state contains a > 11 kyr stratigraphic record that was excavated in the 1960s but only recently analyzed in detail. We present the results of physical, chemical, and isotopic analyses of archived Marmes sediments from rockshelter, hillslope, and floodplain locations. Multiple lines of evidence including éboulis production, soil chemistry, and δ13C and δ18O signatures in soil organic matter and calcium carbonate suggest that relatively cool, moist conditions 10,600 to 9700 14C yr BP were followed by relatively warm and dry conditions as early as 9000 14C yr BP. Warm and dry conditions extended to the late Holocene, followed by a return to cooler and moister climate. The limited range of δ13C and δ18O values in Marmes paleosols suggests that the magnitude of moisture and temperature shifts was locally buffered in the lower Snake River Canyon but adequate to generate significant changes in sedimentation and soil formation, possibly due to nonlinear geological and pedological processes. These buffered canyon environments were well suited for establishing residential bases associated with foraging and logistical collecting strategies and may have minimized the influence of climate changes in food resource abundance. 相似文献
950.
Economic transition in central and eastern Europe (CEE) has had a particularly strong impact on industrial cities and regions. Following their economic collapse, most of them are now confronted with serious problems such as high unemployment and vast ecological damage. The paper presents findings from a pan European research project that investigated the problems of these cities and regions as well as the strategies being adopted to cope with structural change. It examines the differences in approaches and addresses the question whether existing EU policy is suitable for supporting the redevelopment of old industrial cities and regions in CEE countries. The paper concludes with recommendations for future directions in policy making. 相似文献