Analysis of Spatial Mismatch of Tourism Development in Guangdong Province

The spatial mismatch situation of tourism development in Guangdong Province is analyzed by gravity model and two-dimensional matrix based on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, and the results are visualized using ArcGIS software. This study finds that varying degrees of spatial mismatch exist between the level of tourism development, abundance of tourism resources and accessibility of tourism locations in the 21 cities in Guangdong Province. The gravity centers for tourism economy, tourism resources and tourism location are (113.55° E, 23.00° N), (113.69° E, 23.21° N) and (113.74° E, 22.86° N), respectively. According to the two-dimensional combinatorial matrices, synchronous development is shown in 10 prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-resource abundance combination, whereas it is shown in seven prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-tourism location combination. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are synchronous-double high zones for both combinations, while Foshan, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, Zhongshan and Jieyang are deviating-negative mismatch zones for both combinations. Furthermore, the vast majority of prefecture-level cities within the province currently present mismatching trends in tourism development. Based on the analysis results, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward taking into account the actual situation and opportunities for further tourism development in various prefecture-level cities.     

An Orbital Period Study of the Contact Binary CK Bootis

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The onset of Pleistocene glaciation in the Barents Sea: implications for glacial isostatic adjustment

In this paper the effect of a delayed onset of glaciation in the Barents Sea on glacial isostatic adjustment is investigated. The model calculations solve the sea-level equation governing the total mass redistributions associated with the last glaciation cycle on a spherically symmetric, linear, Maxwell viscoelastic earth for two different scenarios for the growth phase of the Barents Sea ice sheet. In the first ice model a linear growing history is used for the Barents Sea ice sheet, which closely relates its development to the build-up of other major Late Pleistocene ice sheets. In the second ice model the accumulation of the Barents Sea ice sheet is restricted to the last 6 ka prior to the last glacial maximum.
The calculations predict relative sea levels, present-day radial velocities, and gravity anomalies for the area formerly covered by the Weichselian ice sheet. The results show that observed relative sea levels in the Barents Sea are appropriate for distinguishing between the different glaciation histories. In particular, present-day observables such as the free-air gravity anomaly over the Barents Sea, and the present-day radial velocities are sensitive to changes in the glaciation history on this scale.
A palaeobathymetry derived from relative sea-level predictions before the last glacial maximum based on the second ice model essentially agrees with a palaeobathymetry derived by Lambeck (1995). The additional emerged areas provide centres for the build-up of an ice sheet and thus support the theory of Hald, Danielsen & Lorentzen (1990) and Mangerud et al. (1992) that the Barents Sea was an essentially marine environment shortly before the last glacial maximum.     

基于星载激光测高估计南极冰盖高程变化

利用NSIDC公布的ICESat运行期间的19个任务期的观测数据, 采用重复轨迹分析方法估计近年来南极冰盖高程的时空变化。结果表明,南极大陆冰盖整体上呈现消融趋势,基于不同的GIA模型和ICESat激光测高数据的南极大陆冰盖高程变化的趋势约为 -1.17~-1 cm/a。     

中国东北地区及不同典型下垫面的气温异常变化分析

利用6个代表站1905-2001年较长时期的月平均气温,对缺测年代的数据进行了插补,建立了东北地区近百年平均季、年气温序列。对所建温度序列与同一区域内26个代表站平均温度序列的近46年同期资料做了相关分析,检验了序列的代表性。在所建序列基础上,分析了东北百年气温的年代、年和季节等不同时间尺度变化特点和地域分布特征,采用谱分析方法探讨了序列的周期性变化特征,并采用Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto方法对经过滑动平均的气温序列进行了突变分析。结果表明,东北近百年年平均温度表现为明显的增暖趋势,但为起伏式增暖;冬季增温非常强烈,夏季在1995年以前不仅没有升温,反而有明显降温趋势,但1995年以后夏季气温明显升高,春秋季的升温趋势与冬季类似,但幅度小得多;在区域内,增温强度似乎并不随纬度增大,纬度较低的沈阳增温最强;三种典型下垫面中以山地的增温幅度最强;功率谱分析表明了百年气温变化的2.3年和4.2年的主周期,其中2.3年周期比较显著。     

气候变化对喜马拉雅中部甘达基河流域濒危物种的影响预测（英文）

甘达基河流域位于喜马拉雅山脉中部,是众多濒危野生物种的重要栖息地。然而气候变化使该流域的生态环境变得愈发脆弱。本研究利用最大熵物种分布模型(Max Ent)评估气候变化对喜马拉雅黑熊(Ursus thibetanus laniger)和印度花豹(Panthera pardus fusca)等濒危物种空间分布变化的潜在影响。研究基于物种出没地点、生物气候和地形(海拔、坡度和坡向)等数据拟合模拟并预测物种在目前与未来的潜在分布情况。研究结果显示,目前喜马拉雅黑熊的高度适宜区面积约为1642 km²,占流域面积的5.01%,预计至2050年,其高度适宜区面积在甘达基河流域内将会增加约51 km²;印度花豹的高度适宜区面积约为3999 km²,占流域面积的12.19%,预计至2050年可能会增加到4806 km²。喜马拉雅黑熊的栖息地面积可能会在研究区域的东部(伯塞里、塔托潘尼和班塞以北)增加,而在东部(颂当、切坎帕)、西部(布尔提邦和波邦)和北部(桑波切、玛南、切坎帕)减少;印度花豹的栖息地面积则将在研究...     

Glacial change in the vicinity of Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), central high Himalayas since 1976

Glaciers are one of the most important land covers in alpine regions and especially sensitive to global climate change. Remote sensing has proved to be the best method of investigating the extent of glacial variations in remote mountainous areas. Using Landsat thematic mapping (TM) and multi-spectral-scanner (MSS) images from Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP), central high Himalayas for 1976, 1988 and 2006, we derived glacial extent for these three periods. A combination of object-oriented image interpretation methods, expert knowledge rules and field surveys were employed. Results showed that (1) the glacial area in 2006 was 2710.17 ± 0.011 km2 (about 7.41% of the whole study area), and located mainly to the south and between 4700 m to 6800 m above sea level; (2) from 1976 to 2006, glaciers reduced by 501.91 ± 0.035 km2 and glacial lakes expanded by 36.88 ± 0.035 km2; the rate of glacier retreat was higher in sub-basins on the southern slopes (16.79%) of the Himalayas than on the northern slopes (14.40%); most glaciers retreated, and mainly occurred at an elevation of 4700–6400 m, and the estimated upper limit of the retreat zone is between 6600 m and 6700 m; (3) increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation over the study period are the key factors driving retreat.     

气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响

本文根据我国的３０年的物候资料和气候资料的统计分析，论证了气温是影响中国木本植物物候的主要因子，在此基础上建立了物候与年平均气温的线性统计模式，又利用此模式分析计算了未来全球年平均气温升高０．５－２．０℃和未来大气中ＣＯ２浓度倍增而增暖情况下，我国主要木本植物物候期的大致变幅。     

珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。     

经济层面和技术层面的碳减排研究

相关资料和事实表明,全球气候发生了很大的变化。二氧化碳是温室效应中最重要的温室气体,碳减排工作是缓解温室效应的一项重要措施,为当前科学研究热点之一。本文主要从经济和技术两个方面,较为系统和全面地介绍了当前碳减排方面的研究进展。经济层面的研究,包括数量化模型、碳税机制和碳减排附加效应几个方面。专业技术方面的研究,包括对碳行为的源汇和贮量的计算研究、碳循环研究、以及减少碳排放的工业技术的运用等。文章还简要提出了中国在碳减排研究方面应采取的几点措施。