On the Relevance of the Spatial Distribution of Events for Seismic Hazard Evaluation

Seismic hazard evaluation is proposed by a methodological approach that allows thestudy of the influence of different modelling assumptions relative to the spatial andtemporal distribution of earthquakes on the maximum values of expected intensities.In particular, we show that the estimated hazard at a fixed point is very sensitive tothe assumed spatial distribution of epicentres and their estimators. As we will see, theusual approach, based on uniformly distributing the epicentres inside each seismogeniczone is likely to be biased towards lower expected intensity values. This will be mademore precise later. Recall that the term ``bias' means, that the expectation of theestimated quantity (taken as a random variable on the space of statistics) is differentfrom the expectation of the quantity itself. Instead, our approach, based on an estimatorthat takes into account the observed clustering of events is essentially unbiased, as shownby a Monte-Carlo simulation, and is configured on a 11011-isotropic macroseismicattenuation model which is independently estimated for each zone.     

三维梁-颗粒模型在岩石材料破坏模拟中的应用

用三维梁-颗粒模型BPM3D(beam-particlemodelinthreedimensions)对岩石类非均质脆性材料的力学性质和破坏过程进行了数值模拟。梁-颗粒模型是在离散单元法基础上,结合有限单元法中的网格模型提出的用于模拟岩石类材料损伤破坏过程的数值模型。在模型中,材料在细观层次上被离散为颗粒单元集合体,相邻颗粒单元由有限单元法中的弹脆性梁单元联结。梁单元的力学性质均按韦伯(Weibull)分布随机赋值,以模拟岩石类材料力学参数的空间变异性。材料内部裂纹通过断开梁单元来模拟。通过自动生成的非均质材料模型对岩石类材料的破坏机理进行研究。岩石类非均质脆性材料在单轴压缩状态下破坏过程细观数值模拟结果显示,岩石材料宏观破坏是由于其内部细观裂纹产生、扩展、贯通的结果。通过数值模拟结果之间的对比分析,揭示出岩石试样宏观破坏模式随细观层次上韦伯分布参数的变化而不同。与实际矿柱破坏形态的对比分析表明了模型的适用性。根据数值模拟结果对岩石类非均质材料的破坏机理进行了探讨。     

粘土干湿循环中裂缝演变过程的数值模拟

在非饱和土简化固结理论基础上,对粘土在干湿过程中,表面裂缝从形成、发展到闭合的发展过程进行了数值模拟,模拟结果说明,本文采用的基于非饱和简化固结理论的计算方法是可行、实用的.     

Morphology and propagation styles of Miocene submarine basanite lavas at Stanley, northwestern Tasmania, Australia

Miocene submarine basanite pillows, lava lobes, megapillows and sheet lavas in the Stanley Peninsula, northwestern Tasmania, Australia, are well-preserved in three dimensions. The pillows have ropy wrinkles, transverse wrinkles, symmetrical wrinkles, contraction cracks and three types of spreading cracks on their surfaces, and concentric and radial joints in the interior. The lava lobes have ropy wrinkles and contraction cracks on their surfaces. The megapillows are cylindrical with a smoothly curved upper surface and steep sides, and are characterized by distinct radial columnar joints in the interior. They are connected to pillows that propagate radially from its basal margin. The sheet lavas are tabular and have vertical columnar joints in the interior. The largest sheet lava shows a remarkable gradation from a lower 5-m-thick pillow facies to an upper massive facies. The pillows, lava lobes, megapillows and sheet lavas are inferred to have been emplaced completely below sea level but in a shallow marine environment. Their morphological features suggest that the pillows grew by episodic rupture of a near-solid crust and emergence of hot lava, whereas the lava lobes propagated by continuous stretching of the outer skin at the flow front. The megapillows and sheet lavas were master feeder channels by which molten lava was conveyed to the advancing pillows. The sheet lavas propagated by repeated processes of pillow formation and overriding by an upper massive part. Alternating pillow and massive facies commonly found in ocean-floor drill cores and exposed in cross-section in many subaqueous volcanic successions may have formed by propagation of pillows from the basal margins of advancing sheet lavas.     

Thermal effects of Caledonian foreland basin formation,based on fission track analyses applied on basement rocks in central Sweden

Increasing evidence from fission track studies in Sweden indicate that large parts of the Fennoscandian Shield have been affected by a large-scale thermotectonic event in the Palaeozoic. In this study the results of 17 apatite fission track analyses from central Sweden are presented collected along three NW–SE transects trending from the Bothnian Sea to the Caledonides. On the Bothnian coast samples have been collected directly from the Sub-Cambrian Peneplain. The sedimentary cover protecting this surface until recently is responsible for the thermal increase detected through apatite fission track (FT) thermochronology.The apatite FT ages range between 516 ± 46 Ma (±1σ) on the Bothnian coast around sea level to 191 ± 11 Ma in the Caledonides (～500–1500 m.a.s.l.). The mean track lengths vary from 11.3 ± 2.2 μm (±1σ) in the east to 14.2 ± 2.8 μm in the west, indicating a longer stay in the PAZ in the east, versus a continuous cooling pattern in the west. This pattern in combination with other geological constraints indicates that the crystalline basement rocks near the Caledonian deformation front in the west experienced higher temperatures after the formation of the Sub-Cambrian Peneplain followed by denudation, compared with the basement rocks in the east near the Bothnian coast.The apatite FT data near the Caledonian deformation front indicates prevailing temperatures of more than 110 ± 10 °C prior to the Mid Palaeozoic, causing a resetting of the apatite fission track clock. The temperatures were progressively lower away from the deformation front. Apatite fission track analysis of samples collected from the Sub-Cambrian Peneplain along the Bothnian coast indicate maximum temperatures of 90 ± 15 °C during Late Silurian–Early Devonian time. This heating event is argued to be the result of burial beneath a developing foreland basin in front of the Caledonian orogeny. Assuming a geothermal gradient of 20 °C/km, this temperature increase can be converted to a total burial of the samples. The resulting geometry of this basin can be described as an asymmetrical basin at least 3.5 km deep in the vicinity of the Caledonian deformation front decreasing to about 2.5 km on the Bothnian coast, continuing further onto Finland. The width of this basin was in thus in the order of 600 km. Whether this was formed completely synorogenic or partly synorogenic, broadening after cessation of the orogeny, could not be revealed.The Late Palaeozoic and Mesozoic thermal evolution of this area is related to the extensional tectonics in the North Atlantic Domain.     

A discontinuous Galerkin method for seismic soil–structure interaction analysis in the time domain

A technique for modeling transient wave propagation in unbounded media is extended and applied to seismic soil–structure interaction analysis in the time domain. The technique, based on the discontinuous Galerkin method, requires lower computational cost and less storage than the boundary element method, and the time‐stepping scheme resulting from Newmark's method in conjunction with the technique is unconditionally stable, allowing for efficient and robust time‐domain computations. To extend the technique to cases characterized by seismic excitation, the free‐field motion is used to compute effective forces, which are introduced on the boundary of the computational domain containing the structure and the soil in the vicinity of the structure. A numerical example on a dam–foundation system subjected to seismic excitation demonstrates the performance of the method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.