基于地缘政治学视角的缅甸内战与毒品经济相互关系解析

中国西南地区面临着因缅甸内战和毒品经济产生的跨国影响而形成的恶劣的地缘政治环境。通过文本分析法,本文聚焦缅甸内战和毒品经济,在分析缅甸内战历史和现实致因、缅甸毒品经济起源与发展的基础上,从地缘政治学视角,揭示了缅甸内战与毒品经济之间的相互关联。本文试图回答的问题是：缅甸内战状态下的毒品经济为何在缅甸蔓延？毒品经济又如何加深缅甸内战并阻碍内战的终结？缅甸内战与毒品经济相互纠缠,即缅甸内战不是由毒品经济利益所触发,但缅甸内战刺激了鸦片种植和催生了畸形的毒品经济,而毒品经济重塑了缅甸联邦政府与少数民族地方武装等各方利益,从而为缅甸内战解决蒙上了阴影。     

东中部地区城市人口、经济与城市建设用地的非均衡与协调性分析

基于2000、2015年中国东中部地区261个地级市统计与土地利用数据,运用空间自相关模型,变异系数和三元协调度模型分析其城市人口、GDP和城市建设用地的空间集聚态势和非均衡变化过程,揭示人口城市化与土地城市化的协调程度。结果显示：（1）城市人口、GDP和建设用地的Moran’s I指数均为正值且2015年的值大于2000年的值,显示出明显的空间集聚特征,且在2000—2015年集聚特征不断加强;（2）城市人口密度和人均GDP的变异系数分别从2000年的1.38和0.91下降到2015年的0.96和0.70,地均GDP从1.32上升到1.77,表明城市人口密度和地均GDP的差异在逐步减小,但地均GDP的不均衡性却在增大;（3）2015年,共有171个地级市城市用地规模增长弹性系数小于1.12且人均城市用地小于115m²,但有104个地级市地均GDP在1000元/m²以下,表明虽然绝大部分地级市城市化规模和速率都在可控范围之内,城市用地经济产出仍然相对较低;（4）90%以上地级市的城市人口、GDP和城市建设用地三者在两个研究时间段内处于协调发展状态。     

贵州乌蒙山区人口-经济-农业生态环境耦合协调关系研究

山区人地矛盾突出,其人口、经济与生态环境可持续发展存在矛盾,解决三者之间的协调发展问题,是山区生态文明建设和资源环境建设中的重点。文章选取贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济、农业生态环境相关数据,采用熵值法、耦合度、协调度等方法测度人口、经济与农业生态环境发展趋势,并进一步探究其耦合度与协调度发展特征。研究得出以下结论：①2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济发展总体向好,农业生态环境发展较为滞后,期间I_pop、I_eco分别提升0.259、0.487,I_agr下降0.398。②2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济、农业生态环境关系日益密切,协调性总体不断增强,但系统协调度明显低于耦合度,系统是一种不均衡的发展趋势。③2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济、农业生态环境协调性具有空间差异,大致呈东高西低,七星关、赤水和习水等县区协调度较高。④2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区县域耦合度提升到高级耦合阶段,但多数县区仍处于初级协调阶段。     

Using data‐driven methods to explore the predictability of surface soil moisture with FLUXNET site data

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of land surface‐atmosphere interactions. Data‐driven methods have been used to predict SM, but the predictability of SM has not been well evaluated. This study investigated what variables and methods can be used to better predict SM for leading times of 7 days or longer with a global coverage of FLUXNET site data for the first time. Three machine‐learning models, that is, Bayesian linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting regression tree, are used for the prediction. Variables including atmospheric forcing, surface soil temperature, time variables (year, day of year, and hour), the Fourier transformation of time variables, and lagged SM (7‐ to 14‐day lagged) were sequentially added into models. A framework with five experiments is designed for factorial exploration of SM predictability. A stepwise method was used to build the best models for each site. The performance of regression models became better when adding more explaining variables in most cases. The results showed that from 50 to 95% of variation of the best models can be explained. The important explaining variables are lagged surface SM, followed by day of year, year, soil temperature, and atmospheric forcing. The predictability of SM depends highly on SM memory characteristics and the persistence of seasonality. The effect of SM memory characteristics on SM prediction as an initial condition question has been widely discussed in this paper. Our results also provide an insight that mechanisms of seasonality effects on SM should be also paid more attention to.     

循环经济的法律实施机制研究

循环经济是保证社会可持续发展的最佳发展模式,但是循环经济相对于传统经济是一场革命,在实施过程中会遇到阻力和困难。因此法律应该成为循环经济发展的主要保证机制。在社会生产过程中,强调生产者必须生产具备可循环性产品的义务机制;在社会贸易过程中,强调国家鼓励循环经济的经济激励法律制度;在社会消费过程中,强调公众对循环经济的参与法律机制。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Introduction to Climatology for the Tropics . J. O. Ayoade. Conservation and Management of Natural Resources in the United States . Charles F. Bennett. The Keeping of Animals: Adaptation and Social Relations in Livestock Producing Communities . Riva Berleant-Schiller and Eugenia Shanklin, ed. The Evolution of Geographic Thought in America: A Kentucky Root Wilford A. Bladen and Pradyumna P. Karan, eds. Latin America: Geographical Perspectives , 2nd ed. Harold Blakemore and Clifford T. Smith, ed. The Rural Real Estate Market. Department of Geography Publication Series, No. 18 . Chris Bryant. Urban Geomorphology in Drylands . R. U. Cooke, D. Brunsden, J. C. Doornkamp, and D. K. C. Jones with contributions by J. Griffiths, P. Knott, R. Potter, and R. Russell. Italian Geography, 1960–1980. Meeting of the Status of the Geographic Research in Italy, 1960–1980. Treated under the auspices of Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche and organized by Istituto di Geografia Umana della Facoltà di Lettere e Filosofia dell'Università degli Studi di Milano , Giacomo Corna Pellecrini and Carlo Brusa, eds. The Changing Fenland . H. C. Darby. The Future for the City Centre . R. L. Davies and A. G. Champion, eds. Saudi Arabia, Energy, Developmental Planning, and Industrialization . Ragaei El Mallakh, Dorothea H. El Mallakh, eds. For We Are Sold, I and My People: Women and Industry in Mexico's Frontier . Maria Patricia Fernández-Kelly. The Great Lakes Forest: An Environmental and Social History . Susan L. Flader, ed. Regional Transformation and Industrial Revolution: A Geography of the Yorkshire Woolen Industry . Derek Gregory Crime in City Politics . Anne Heinz, Herbert Jacob and Robert L. Lineberry, eds. Revitalizing Cities . H. Briavel Holcomb and Robert A. Beauregard. Cartographic Relief Presentation . Eduard Imhof. H. J. Steward, Trans. Soviet Union: A Geographical Survey . S. V. Kalesnik and V. F. Pavlenko, ed. Cognition and Environment . Stephen Kaplan and Rachel Kaplan. Environmental Protection: The International Dimension . David A. Kay and Harold K. Jacobsen, eds. Mathematical Programming Methods for Geographers and Planners , James Killen. Gentrification Amid Urban Decline: Strategies for America's Older Cities . Michael H. Lang. The North Atlantic Sulphur System . Risto Laulajainen. The Jerusalem Cathedra: Studies in the History, Archaeology, Geography and Ethnography of the Land of Israel, Vol. 2 . Lee I. Levine ed. Jerusalem and Detroit: Recreation Planning and Management . Stanely R. Lieber and Daniel R. Fesenmaier, eds. Heartland and Hinterland: A Geography of Canada . L. D. McCann, ed. Scarborough Where We Live: The Residential Districts of Minneapolis and St. Paul . Judith A. Martin and David A. Lanegran. California: The Geography of Diversity . Crane S. Miller and Richard S. Hyslop. Palo Alto The Dilemma of Amazonian Development . Emilio F. Moran, ed. Boulder Nuclear Waste: Socioeconomic Dimensions of Long-Term Storage . Steve H. Murdock, F. Larry Leistritz, and Rita R. Hamm, eds. Boulder Communism and the Politics of Inequalities . Daniel N. Nelson, ed. The Los Angeles Metropolis . Howard J. Nelson. Dubuque An Historical Geography of Urban System Development: Tidewater Virginia in the 18th Century . James O'Mara. Procedures and Standards for a Multipurpose Cadastre . East Asia: Geographical and Historical Approaches to Foreign Area Studies . Clifton W. Pannell, ed. Dubuque Mackinder: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft . W. H. Parker. Beyond the Urban Fringe: Land Use Issues of Nonmetropolitan America . Rutherford H. Platt and George Macinko, eds. Recreation Geography of the USSR . V. S. Preobrazhensky and V. M. Krivosheyev, eds. Missouri: A Geography . Milton D. Rafferty The Invisible Farmers: Women in Agricultural Production . Carolyn E. Sachs. Cayman Islands Seashore Vegetation: A Study in Comparative Biogeography . Jonathan D. Sauer. Hillslope Materials and Processes . Michael J. Selby. Housing in Britain: The Post-War Experience . John R. Short The Study of Population: Elements, Patterns and Processes . George A. Schnell and Mark Stephen Monmonier. Columbus The Soviet Union: A Systematic Geography . Leslie Symons, ed. The Ottoman Slave Trade and Its Suppression . Ehud R. Toledano. The Impact of Recession on Industry, Employment and the Regions, 1976–1981 . Alan R. Townsend. Landslides and Their Control , 2nd ed. Quido Záruba and Vojtech Mencl. Translated from the Czech by H. Zárubová and V. Mencl.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: The Mexican Colonial Copper Industry. Elinore M. Barrett . The Control Revolution: Technological and Economic Origins of the Information Society . James R. Beniger . Land Degradation and Society . Piers M. Blaikie And Harold C. Brookfield , Eds . La carte, mode d'emploi. Roger Brunet . France: les dynamiques du territoire . Roger Brunet AND Jacques Sallois , EDS. At the Crossroads—The Mineral Problems of the United States . Eugene N. Cameron . A Census of One Billion People , Papers for International Seminar on China's 1982 Population Census. Li Chengrui , ED. Les Milieux “Naturels” du Globe . Jean Demangeot . The Geophysiology of Amazonia: Vegetation and Climate Interactions : Robert E. Dickinson , ED. Tenn-Tom Country . James F. Doster And David C. Weaver . Family Farming in Europe and America . Boguslaw Galeski And Eugene Wilkening , EDS. The Geography of Urban Transportation . Susan Hanson , Ed. Combating Desertification in Developing Countries . J. K. Jain , ED. Cartography in France—1660–1848. Science, Engineering and Statecraft . Josef W. Konvitz . Distribution of Distances in Pregeographical Space . Hans Kuiper . Physical Geography Lab Manual: A New Experimental Approach . Neal G. Lineback And John M. Harlin . Physical Geography: A Landscape Appreciation , 2nd ed. Tom L. Mc Knight . The Desert Is No Lady: Southwestern Landscapes in Women's Writing and Art . Vera Norwood And Janice Monk , EDS. France: A Geographical, Social, and Economic Survey . Philippe Pinchemel , translated, by D. Elkins and T. H. Elkins. Gene Banks and the World's Food . Donald L. Plucknett , Nigel J. H. Smith , J. T. Williams , And N. Murthi Anishetty . Latin American Development: Geographical Perspectives . David Preston , Ed. Making Sense of Development: An Introduction to Classical and Contemporary Theories of Development and Their Application to Southeast Asia . P. W. Preston . The History of the Countryside. Oliver Rackham . The Third World in Perspective . H. A. Reitsma AND J. M. G. Kleinpenning . The Industrial Geography of Australia . David C. Rich . The Recruiting Game , 2nd Ed., revised. John F. Rooney , JR. A Cultural Geography of North American Indians . Thomas E. Ross AND Tyrel G. Moore , EDS. Eastern Europe . Dean S. Rugg . Human Territoriality: Its Theory and History . Cambridge Studies in Historical Geography: 7. Robert David Sack . Experimental Fluvial Geomorphology . Stanley A. Schumm , M. Paul Mosley , AND William E. Weaver . The New Urban Landscape . David Schuyler . Atlas of American Women . Barbara Gimla Shortridge . Impacts of Hazardous Technology: The Psycho-Social Effects of Restarting TMI-1 . John Sorensen , Jon Soderstrom , Emily Copenhaver , Sam Carnes AND Robert Bolin . Modern Physical Geography , 3rd Ed., (Third Edition). Arthur N. Strahler AND Alan H. Strahler . India: Economic Resource Base and Contemporary Political Patterns . B. L. Sukhwal .     

关联向量机及其在入侵检测中的应用探讨

介绍一种稀疏的贝叶斯学习算法——关联向量机(RVM)，它在再生核希尔伯特空间中学习，利用贝叶斯方法推理，推广能力好，与支持向量机相比不仅解更为稀疏而且不需要调整超参数。应用RVM的对小样本的良好分类能力，提出一种基于RVM的入侵检测原型系统。