Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.     

Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.     

变差函数参数的计算

为了求出地质统计学中变差函数理论模型的参数，首先把相应模型化成线性函数的形式，多面手应用线性方程组非负解的理论计算出它的参数。     

地球脉动——表现、级别及与古地磁的联系

地球脉动的概念是指地球在其历史中曾发生膨胀和收缩的周期性变化。其根据是构造变动、岩浆活动、地磁极倒转以及海平面升降等方面，在地球的膨胀和收缩期，均有各种表现。构造 海平面升降在地球收缩期形成海退，在膨胀期形成海侵。在一个地球脉动旋回的不同时期，地表、海平面和洋底之间的相互关系均有变化，因而形成“层序”的沉积记录。地磁场的强度和地磁极倒转频率在显生宙有明显变化，有高峰期和平静期。这种频率变化与构造变动和岩浆活动都有对应关系，特别是４Ｍａ为准周期的地磁极倒转频率与海底扩张、洋壳形成速率之间具有良好的对应关系。地球脉动旋回可以分为不同的级次，构成级别体系：超级旋回约１Ｇａ，巨旋回２５０～３００Ｍａ，一级旋回５０～１５０Ｍａ，二级旋回５～５０Ｍａ，三级旋回１～５Ｍａ，均可与构造旋回相对应，更高的级次对构造不形成影响。三级及更长的脉动旋回可能受深部过程的控制。中、新生代以来，地球脉动是在地球适度膨胀的背景下进行的。     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Distribution, abundance and life history of Mysis relicta (Lovén) in the Feldberg Lake District, Germany

Distribution, abundance and life history characteristics of Mysis relicta were studied in the Feldberg Lake District (Lake Breiter Luzin, Lake Schmaler Luzin, Lake Zansen) located in northeastern Germany. Between July 2001 and November 2002 mysids were collected by vertical net hauls. In order to determine the impact of the current trophic conditions on the distribution of mysids in these lakes, oxygen concentration, total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and water transparency were also measured. All investigated lakes are mesotrophic at present. Lake Breiter Luzin exhibited great seasonal and spatial variations in mysid abundance. Density of adults and juveniles had a mean of 44.9 ± 57.1 and 68.7 ± 99.6 m⁻², respectively. Highest abundance of adults was 110.4 ± 76.5 m⁻² in summer, lowest abundances of 2.0 ± 4.0 m⁻² occurred in spring. For juveniles, highest density of 218.4 ± 174.6 m⁻² was detected in summer and lowest of 0.8 ± 1.8 m⁻² in winter. No mysids were caught in any of the daytime hauls, but they were widely distributed throughout the water column at night. Size frequency distribution of mysids suggested that reproduction occurred year-round, the most consistent influx of juveniles occurred in early summer and a smaller second cohort in autumn. Highest mysid abundance was 189.2 ± 318.6 adults and 127.0 ± 66.3 juveniles m⁻² in Lake Schmaler Luzin, and 59.6 ± 5.6 adults and 79.4 ± 11.2 juveniles m⁻² in Lake Zansen. There were great spatial differences in abundance in both lakes.     

Pedogenic factors affecting magnetic susceptibility of the last interglacial palaeosol S1 in the Chinese Loess Plateau

The magnetic susceptibility has been used as a quantitative or semi‐quantitative proxy for reconstructing the summer monsoon intensity in the Chinese Loess Plateau based on extensive studies on climatic or/and environmental mechanisms producing the magnetic susceptibility signatures. However, the precise nature of the link between past climates and the susceptibility signatures has remained uncertain primarily due to lack of our understanding in the ?nalizing and preserving processes of the signatures. This paper attempts to examine the reliability or acceptability of this summer monsoon proxy from non‐magnetic perspectives of soil‐forming processes. We chose nine sections along two transects: one across the western part of the Chinese Loess Plateau and another across the eastern part. Several conclusions can be drawn from our analytical data. First, clay translocation within the S1 palaeosol pro?les, as indicated by ?eld‐observed clay coatings on ped faces in Bt and Bk horizons and demonstrated by laboratory‐analysed clay contents, must have moved some of the magnetic minerals downward so that the susceptibility re?ects only the post‐translocation distribution of the magnetic‐susceptibility‐producing minerals. Second, the best‐developed palaeosol S1S3 at most of the sections studied is not expressed by the magnetic susceptibility because this palaeosol developed in underlying coarse loess (L2) and coarse textures tend to lower the susceptibility. Third, carbonate concentration is normally negatively correlated with the magnetic susceptibility or simply suppresses the magnetic susceptibility peak when the susceptibility enhancement exceeds the carbonate dilution effect. To conclude, extreme caution must be observed when using magnetic susceptibility signatures to retrieve high‐resolution records of the last interglacial palaeoclimate in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。     

用L-曲线法确定岭估计中的岭参数

运用L 曲线法来确定岭估计中的岭参数 ,推导了用L 曲线法确定岭参数的基本公式 ,在此基础上实现了其算法 ,并用两个算例 ,比较了新方法和以往方法。结果表明 ,L 曲线法不仅容易收敛 ,而且其计算结果的精度较高