当前全球矿业形势分析与展望

全球矿业发展与工业化进程密切相关,具有与全球经济发展周期基本一致的显著的周期性特征。在同一个周期内,各种资源需求在时间上具有波次(递进)性,它决定着矿业的持续与繁荣。从2003开始全球矿业进入了第3个周期,其特征包括矿业产业集中度加剧、垄断特征更加显著、矿产品低成本时代终结等。同时,这一时期出现了大量国际金融资本进入矿产品市场的现象,使得矿产品价格体系趋于复杂化。从中长期来看,中国、印度、非洲等新兴经济体工业化、城镇化进程不会停滞,刚性资源需求将推动此轮超级周期继续前行。从中短期来看,欧美债务危机继续升级恶化,中东格局正发生着重大变化,全球经济二次探底风险愈发增大。在全球经济增长不如预期、矿产品需求下降、新增矿山产能释放和矿产品价格进入新一轮调整阶段的情况下,未来一段时期内,全球矿业形势将表现为"需求放缓、价格高位、震荡加剧"。     

Influences of Different PBL Schemes on Secondary Eyewall Formation and Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Simulated Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

The effects of different planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes on the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) are investigated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with six different PBL schemes. The SEF and ERC have been successfully simulated with all the six PBL schemes and the mechanism for the SEF and ERC proposed in our previous study has been reconfirmed. It is demonstrated that both the intensification of the storm and the inward-moving outer spiral rainband contribute to the SEF. After the SEF, the associated diabatic heating enhances the secondary eyewall further, and the transfer of moist air from outer region to the primary eyewall is cut off by the secondary eyewall. In such a way, the primary eyewall dies and an ERC completes. It is found that some simulated features of the SEF and ERC, such as the time and location of the SEF and duration of the ERC, do vary from one simulation to another. In order to describe the features of the SEF and ERC quantitatively, a concentric eyewall index (CEI) is defined and a threshold of the CEI is suggested to determine the onset of the secondary eyewall. The differences in the simulated SEF and ERC are discussed and some possible causes are suggested. In addition, based on the CEI threshold and the conservation law of angular momentum, a formula to predict the location of SEF is also proposed and applied to all the six simulations. The success and failure of the formula are then discussed.     

三峡库区巫峡段典型岩体劣化特征研究

三峡工程形成了在高程145~175 m之间的周期性水位波动,促使库区灰岩岸坡劣化损伤加剧,稳定性急剧衰减。其中巫峡段灰岩岸坡受库水长期的物理化学作用,宏观劣化现象最为明显,局部顺层岸坡底部受侵蚀劣化脱空,岩层出露,存在潜在的滑移-拉裂破坏。文章借助三维激光扫描点云技术对岩体表层宏-细观劣化进行了定量化观测,发现岩体劣化主要沿着泥质填充条带等薄弱结构面进行,现场“刀砍纹”状溶蚀沟槽的差异劣化与白云石和方解石抗溶蚀性能密切相关。室内干湿循环劣化试验进一步表明：三叠系大冶组(T1d)泥质条带灰岩的劣化速率明显高于三叠系嘉陵江组(T1j)白云质灰岩,这与两种岩性的矿物成分及孔隙微观结构组成相关,且随着循环周期增加,两种岩样的物理力学性质呈现出不同程度的衰减;基于核衰变劣化控制式进行回归,R2高达0.861 9~0.999 3。引入劣化常数λ、半衰期T1/2对两种岩性劣化特征进行描述,发现同一岩性不同物理参数对应的劣化常数λ、半衰期T1/2不同,呈现“簇状”分布,与室内试验数据表现一致;运用劣化控制式时要考虑现场岩体由于各种结构面的存在,岩体会加速劣化,需要对劣化控制方程和力学强度进行相应折减。文章结合现场宏-细观劣化现象以及室内干湿循环,构建了物理意义明确的基于核衰变的劣化控制方程,为类似灰岩岸坡劣化评估预测与稳定性分析提供参考。     

碳中和背景下大气科学碳氮循环研究前沿问题与建议

碳循环不断受到气候变化、大气CO2浓度、人类活动和氮循环等多种因素的共同影响。然而, 未来以"碳达峰和碳中和"为目标的排放情景下, 中国陆地生态系统碳汇潜力仍然存在很大的不确定性, 影响了实现双碳目标的碳减排和碳增汇相关政策的制定和实施。厘清大气科学中关于碳氮循环演变研究有关科学认识将会为中国碳达峰和碳中和的实现提供有力地科学支撑。文章回顾了国内外大气科学中碳氮循环研究的基础和现状, 分析了当前气候变化、大气CO2升高、碳氮循环相互作用的关键过程和人类活动对地球系统碳氮循环研究的影响。其中, 氮营养元素对碳循环的影响充分表明生物固氮和大气氮沉降等过程对碳汇有重要影响, 可以减少地球系统模式中碳汇模拟的不确定性; 此外, 由于气候变化是气候系统对外强迫的快变响应和慢变响应的综合结果, 在大气科学中有必要区分快变响应和慢变响应对中国碳汇的影响, 分析人为碳排放清零后中国陆地生态系统碳汇潜力和固碳速率的变化; 最后, 在此基础上获得相应的启示并给出了未来的策略建议, 以期为国家碳中和战略顺利实施提供参考与借鉴。     

球形模板压入仪在冻土长期强度测试中的应用

球形模板压入仪（球模仪）在前苏联和俄罗斯等冻土区土力学性质测试中得到广泛应用。在60多年的工程实践中,试验理论、方法等方面都得到了完善。因其试验简单易行且测试结果能较好地反映冻结土的力学性质,特别是在冻结土黏聚力的长期强度评价及预测方面广泛应用。简要介绍该试验理论、试验方法、试验仪器。以莫斯科郊外冰碛粉质黏土作为研究对象。在恒定-7～20 ℃温度条件下,在封闭状态下分别进行3、6、20、40次冻融循环试验。对各试验阶段土样进行物理性质测试,之后用球模仪对冻结土样进行强度测试。冻融循环后土样的各物理指标均有不同程度的减小,随着冻融次数的增加,其强度降低。冻融过程中,土样中水体积的变化使其密度减小、孔隙率增大是造成这一结果的原因。     

滇川西部金沙江古特提斯洋的威尔逊旋回

本文对滇川西部金沙江造山带被动大陆边缘、蛇绿岩、洋盆相放射虫硅质岩、岛弧岩浆岩和造山磨拉石建造的形成时代进行了综合研究,结合古生物化石和SHRIMP年龄,论证了金沙江古特提斯洋盆的威尔逊旋回,即大陆裂解(晚泥盆世)、洋盆扩张(石炭纪)、俯冲消减(二叠纪)和碰撞造山(三叠纪)。金沙江洋是滇川西部古特提斯多岛洋中重要的支洋盆。     

干旱气候条件下陆相高分辨层序地层特征研究——以江汉盆地西南缘晚白垩世渔洋组为例

江汉盆地西南缘白垩系上统渔洋组地层旋回主要受气候因素的影响。研究区渔洋组是在干旱气候条件下沉积的洪水—漫湖沉积体系，其气候变化的特点是短暂洪水期与较长干旱的间洪水期交替变化，同时表现出不同级别的旋回，在气候越来越干旱的背景下，洪水期持续的时间就会越短，洪水的规模也越来越小。在短期的气候变化旋回下，地层沉积特征表现为洪水期沉积的水道、砂坪等微相与干旱的间洪水期泥坪微相互层。在中期气候变化旋回下，主洪水期持续时间长、规模大，沉积分布广泛,形成较厚的灰色水道砂岩沉积和灰色泥岩沉积夹薄层的红色泥坪沉积，间洪水期沉积为砂坪、混合坪与泥坪互层构成。长期旋回表现为每个中期主洪水期越来越小、水道沉积规模变小，间洪水期形成的红色泥坪厚度逐渐加厚，代表气候越来越干旱。研究区的这种地层旋回变化特征反映出气候是地层旋回的主控因素，不仅控制地层的短期旋回，同时控制地层的中长期旋回。这些特征具明显的等时性和可对比性，为油田开发过程中小层对比及油层划分提供了理论依据。     

Monitoring active fault creep as a tool in seismic hazard mitigation. Insights from creepmeter study at Chihshang,Taiwan

In 1998 we installed five creepmeters across the Chihshang Fault, the active plate suture in eastern Taiwan. Daily creepmeter data indicated decreasing creeping rate from 1999 to 2003, suggesting increasing seismic hazard. The fault was ruptured by the Chengkung earthquake ($\mathit{Mw}=6.6$) on 10 December 2003. Through extrapolation of our earlier creep data of 1986–1991 and 1992–1997, we evaluate the minimum deficit in aseismic creep shortening as 106 or 46 mm (respectively) before this earthquake. The near-surface co-seismic shortening was limited, but the total shortening resulting from the earthquake, including post-seismic creep, was about 97 mm. This suggests that near the surface most of the detectable deficit has been absorbed by this earthquake and subsequent creep. We thus point out that creepmeter installation and monitoring bring a powerful tool in seismic hazard mitigation. To cite this article: J.-C. Lee et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Comparison of the Global Energy Cycle between Chinese Reanalysis Interim and ECMWF Reanalysis

The global energy cycle is a diagnostic metric widely used to gauge the quality of datasets. In this paper, the "Mixed Space-Time Domain" method for diagnosis of energy cycle is evaluated by using newly developed datasets-the Chinese Reanalysis Interim (CRAI) and ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), over a 7-yr period (2010-16) on seasonal and monthly timescales. The results show that the energy components calculated from the two reanalysis datasets are highly consistent;however, some components in the global energy integral from CRAI are slightly larger than those from ERA5. The main discrepancy in the energy components stems from the conversion of baroclinic process, whereas the dominant difference originates from the conversion from stationary eddy available potential energy to stationary eddy kinetic energy (CES), which is caused by systematic differences in the temperature and vertical velocity in low-mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and near the Antarctic, where there exist complex terrains. Furthermore, the monthly analysis reveals that the general discrepancy in the temporal variation between the two datasets also lie mainly in the CES as well as corresponding generation and dissipation rates.     

Chronology of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Salzach palaeoglacier area (Eastern Alps)

A chronostratigraphy based on luminescence data was established at a key loess profile (Duttendorf) in the northern alpine foreland of Austria. The data help to constrain the timing and duration of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the area of one of the largest east Alpine piedmont glaciers, the Salzach palaeoglacier. Climate deterioration and maximum advance of this glacier were coeval with the beginning of the main loess accumulation phase in the glacier forefield at ～29–30 ka. A late LGM‐outwash gravel layer deposited on top of the loess profile marks the end of the LGM glacier activity at ～20 ka. The geomorphological setting around the loess profile provides evidence of a major glacier oscillation during the course of the LGM, a phenomenon qualitatively known from other alpine palaeoglaciers but never interpreted in terms of palaeoclimate. A LGM glacier oscillation similar to that of the Salzach palaeoglacier was reported recently from the south Alpine Tagliamento palaeoglacier, suggesting a common forcing. The onset of loess deposition at Duttendorf and the tentatively contemporal advance of the Salzach palaeoglacier reflect, as do other data, the drastic cooling in Europe as a result of Heinrich event 3. The first glacier maximum is not well constrained in the study area but a correlation with the better dated Tagliamento amphitheatre suggests a possible response to Heinrich 2. The second re‐advance occurred synchronously (within dating uncertainties) in both palaeoglaciers forefields (at ～21 ka) but the forcing mechanism remains unknown. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.