TBB-REVEALED ANNUAL CYCLE FEATURES OF TROPICAL LFO*

In the context of 1980-1992 JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency) GMS TBB gridded dataset,study is undertaken of annual cycle features of FFT-derived window power spectrum averaged over the record length,with localized space/time characteristics of low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in the tropical atmosphere investigated alongside possible causes.It turns out that the LFO takes on surprisingly noticeable annual cycle features marked by a wider variable range of the LFO periods over northern tropics than the southern counterpart and equatorial vicinity.In addition,on the whole,the signals are more intense in the Northern Hemisphere during summer/autumn and at equatorial/southern latitudes when northern winter/spring occur as well.Also,not all these features are identical for different segments at the same latitudes,displaying signatures on a local basis,and the spatial/temporal locality can be qualitatively interpreted in terms of nonlinear interaction between tropical waves,and modulation of diabatic heating on the LFO periods.     

Effects of heterogeneous vegetation on the surface hydrological cycle

Using the three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) hydrological model and the successive interpolation approach (SIA) of climate factors, the authors studied the effect of different land cover types on the surface hydrological cycle. Daily climate data from 1992 to 2001 and remotely-sensed leaf area index (LAI) are used in the model. The model is applied to the Baohe River basin, a subbasin of the Yangtze River basin, China, with an area of 2500 km2. The vegetation cover types in the Baohe River basin consist mostly of the mixed forest type (85%). Comparison of the modeled results with the observed discharge data suggests that: (1) Daily discharges over the period of 1992–2001 simulated with inputs of remotely-sensed land cover data and LAI data can generally produce observed discharge variations, and the modeled annual total discharge agrees with observations with a mean difference of 1.4%. The use of remote sensing images also makes the modeled spatial distributions of evapotranspiration physically meaningful. (2) The relative computing error (RCE) of the annual average discharge is ?24.8% when the homogeneous broadleaf deciduous forestry cover is assumed for the watershed. The error is 21.8% when a homogeneous cropland cover is assumed and ?14.32% when an REDC (Resource and Environment Database of China) land cover map is used. The error is reduced to 1.4% when a remotely-sensed land cover at 1000-m resolution is used.     

宁夏近44 a霜冻的气候变化特征

对宁夏1961~2004年间霜冻发生次数、霜期的变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:宁夏霜冻发生主要集中在4月和10月,出现次数4月中旬最多,春季霜冻明显多于秋季;发生次数南北差异较大,宁南山区发生频率较高,年平均发生次数达8.7~10.8次。同心出现次数最少,年平均只有2.1次;霜冻发生次数阶段性变化呈"1升1降"和"1升2降"分布,总体呈下降趋势,其中6月、秋季下降趋势明显。霜冻年发生次数的跃变点是1984年,跃变年以后霜冻发生次数明显减少;3个区域的气候变化趋势均为初霜日逐渐推迟,终霜日逐渐提前,无霜期逐渐延长。     

An Implementation of Full Cycle Strategy Using Dynamic Blending for Rapid Refresh Short-range Weather Forecasting in China

The partial cycle(PC) strategy has been used in many rapid refresh cycle systems(RRC) for regional short-range weather forecasting. Since the strategy periodically reinitializes the regional model(RM) from the global model(GM)forecasts to correct the large-scale drift, it has replaced the traditional full cycle(FC) strategy in many RRC systems.However, the extra spin-up in the PC strategy increases the computer burden on RRC and generates discontinuous smallscale systems among cycles. This study returns to the FC strategy but with initial fields generated by dynamic blending(DB) and data assimilation(DA). The DB ingests the time-varied large-scale information from the GM to the RM to generate less-biased background fields. Then the DA is performed. We applied the new FC strategy in a series of 7-day batch forecasts with the 3-hour cycle in July 2018, and February, April, and October 2019 over China using a Weather Research and Forecast(WRF) model-based RRC. A comparison shows that the new FC strategy results in less model bias than the PC strategy in most state variables and improves the forecast skills for moderate and light precipitation. The new FC strategy also allows the model to reach a balanced state earlier and gives favorable forecast continuity between adjacent cycles. Hence, this new FC strategy has potential to be applied in RRC forecast systems to replace the currently used PC strategy.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候系统对二氧化碳移除响应

IPCC AR6报告中控温1.5℃和2℃的低排放情景需要在21世纪中叶以后实现净负CO₂排放,这需要在很大程度上依赖CO₂移除措施。AR6对CO₂移除的主要评估结论如下：CO₂移除有潜力从大气中去除CO₂（高信度);如果CO₂移除量超过CO₂排放量,将实现净负CO₂排放,降低大气CO₂浓度,减缓海洋酸化（高信度);通过CO₂移除方法从大气中去除的CO₂会部分被海洋和陆地释放的CO₂抵消（非常高信度);如果净负CO₂排放可以实现并且持续,CO₂引起的全球升温趋势将会逐渐扭转,但是气候系统的其他变化（例如海平面升高）仍会在未来的几十年到千年尺度上持续（高信度);不同CO₂移除方法会对生物化学循环和气候产生广泛的影响,这些影响会加强或减弱CO₂移除的降温潜力,并且影响水资源、食物生产和生物多样性（高信度）。     

大气气溶胶中的铁及其溶解度研究综述

生物活性铁(Fe)进入生物地球化学循环中能够调节碳循环,影响海洋初级生产力,间接影响全球气候变化.决定Fe生物可利用度的关键因子是可溶Fe含量,其中大气气溶胶的长距离传输是上层海洋获取生物可利用Fe的重要来源.近年来,对气溶胶中的Fe及溶解度的研究取得了重要进展,包括对不同区域Fe质量浓度和溶解度的观测以及对Fe溶解度...     

山东一次春季暴雨过程的水汽收支和降水转化数值分析

利用中尺度数值模式(MM5 v3.5)对2003年4月17~18日山东春季大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。在较为准确的模拟基础上,分析了该暴雨过程的形势演变和水汽条件,计算了暴雨发生过程中山东省范围水汽输送、水汽收支和空中各相态水物质的量值大小及其转化关系。初步揭示了具体降水天气系统中的水循环过程和云水资源转化特征。     

景观植被生态系统水平衡模拟与分析

景观或区域的水平衡状况是全球变化的重要指标。本研究建立了一个空间显式景观过程模型,模拟了长白山自然保护区的水循环过程,并对水分收入、支出和平衡的总体状况、季节动态和空间分布格局进行了分析。整个保护区单位面积上水分盈余0.225±0.255 m.a-1,总计盈余4.379×108m3.a-1,但空间变异相当大。阔叶红松林的水分有略微亏缺,其他类型植被生态系统每年均有不同程度的水分盈余。从总面积上看,云冷杉林每年的水分盈余最多(可达1.696×108m3.a-1),占整个保护区的40.56%。整个保护区6月水分亏缺最严重,7~8月水分盈余最多,3~4月盈余较多。阔叶红松林除3月外,其他各月的水分亏缺均最多或次多,其中7~8月的水分盈余最少。降水量对水分收入、水分支出和水平衡季节动态的影响均最大。总的来说,年水分盈余的空间分布随海拔升高呈明显增加的趋势。气象因子均对水平衡的空间分布有极显著影响,气温和总辐射较高的地带,水分盈余较少,甚至出现水分亏缺;而降水量、相对湿度和风速较高的地带,水分盈余也较多。水分收入与叶面积指数(LAI)呈极显著负相关关系;而水分支出与LAI呈极显著正相关关系,主要受蒸腾量的影响。     

末次冰期短尺度气候突变事件:西南地区石笋记录的证据

本文研究了广西和贵州 3个大型石笋的δ1 8O及δ1 3 C记录 ,末次冰期晚期所揭示的 10 2 ～ 10 3 a级的冷跃变事件 ,其时限为 11.4～ 12 .4kaB .P .,14.5kaB .P .,2 0kaB .P .,2 7kaB .P .,36～ 37kaB .P .及 41kaB .P .等。可与北欧和北大西洋的新仙女木及Heinrich型气候波动事件逐一对比 ,这些短周期的气候突变事件 ,时限上的各种记录可能有差异 ,也许是测试方法和测试对象的不同带来的误差 (包括测试误差 )。具有全球意义的一些气候突变事件 ,如果在发生的时间上都具有同时性 ,那么这种短期突变事件发生的动力机制问题 ,是否是目前人类尚未识别出来的天文因素的驱动 ,值得今后进一步研究。     

新疆北山大地构造属性及演化特征

本文首次提出新疆北山古生代大地构造属性为板内断裂造山带,具有下列基本特征:①造山带形成和发展受主断裂控制;②以成熟度低、分选差的陆源碎屑沉积为主;③岩浆活动有其本身的特点;④横向不均一性特征非常突出;⑤剖面结构构造特征,主要从造山带两侧分别向外缘逆冲,构成背冲型;⑥空间上由三个断裂造山带平行排列组合在一起;⑦时间上经历了三个断裂造山旋回。