非静力中尺度模式的现状及发展趋势

随着高性能计算机与大气探测技术的发展 ,使得非静力中尺度数值预报模式的业务化成为可能 ,世界上主要的气象中心最近几年纷纷发展非静力中尺度模式 ,并取得了重要进展 ,这其中尤以英国气象局新发展的非静力通用模式最为突出。基于此 ,介绍了近年来国际上发达国家的非静力中尺度预报模式的现状及发展方向 ,并对该类模式设计中应注意的一些问题进行了阐述     

砂土液化判别方法可靠性评价

在进行液化评价简化法与规范液化判别方法对比基础上，利用液化概率的对数回归方程，讨论了规范液化判别方法的可靠性。研究结果表明，我国规范液化判别方法其液化概率变动较大，对于烈度 Ⅶ 度，规范法的液化概率在0.17～0.42间，小于简化法概率0.36～0.43，偏保守。对于烈度 Ⅷ 度和 Ⅸ 度近地表场地，规范法的液化概率高达0.65～0.70，远远高于简化法的液化概率，安全裕度不够。对于含粘粒土质液化评价，规范方法的液化概率总体上都较简化法高，特别是烈度Ⅷ度高粘粒含量其液化概率为0.9。     

变形监测基准点的稳定性检验

基准点的稳定性评价，是变形观测数据处理时不可忽视的重要内容。该文对基准点构网和不构网2种情况时的数据处理方法进行了探讨。     

载荷试验确定基床系数修正方法的讨论

Winkler地基模型是目前工程界应用最广的一种地基模型，但对其关键参数——基床系数k的确定，许多文献的表述并不一致。该文在大量试验资料的基础上，通过对该问题的深入研究，阐明了通过载荷试验确定基床系数修正方法的有关概念。对于砂性土地基，载荷板试验得出的基准基床系数仅需要进行基础大小修正，而对于粘性土地基，则需要进行基础大小和基础形状两项修正。     

水质大涡模拟数学模型研究

建立了基于弱可压缩流基础上的水质大涡模拟数学模型及污染物质扩散系数与平均运动的关系。数值计算采用有限体积法和预测校正法,固壁边界条件采用"部分滑移条件"。并应用该模型对重庆嘉陵江、长江两江交汇段的流场,污染物质浓度分布进行了计算,计算结果与实测值比较吻合。研究表明,横向扩散与流动状态有关,当支流流量相对较小时,横向扩散较弱,形成岸边污染带,当支流流量相对较大时,横向扩散较强,污染带向江心移动。     

天津泰达地区粉土振动液化特性的研究

本文以动三轴试验和原位测试数据为基础，以天津地区砂性土为例，探讨砂性土振动液化机理及孔隙水压力变化规律，采用多种方法分析判别砂性土液化，为高烈度地区重要工程建筑抗震设计提供重要数据。     

金丽温高速公路K81高边坡变形动态数值分析

对金丽温高速公路K81高边坡进行接触大变形有限元动态数值分析.结果表明,路堑边坡开挖,导致滑面的法向应力减小、抗滑力下降,是引起古滑坡复活的根本原因.研究结果也说明了接触大变形有限元分析方法可以较好地分析潜在滑面的力学作用,是研究滑坡的滑动机理的有效方法.     

土工带加筋碎石土本构关系的三轴试验研究

通过碎石土和加筋碎石土的大型三轴试验,分析了土工带加筋碎石土的变形特性和土工带加筋对碎石土应力-应变关系的影响,采用双曲线函数拟合加筋土体的应力-应变试验曲线,建立了土工带加筋碎石土的非线性模型以克服经典的刚塑体模型不能反映加筋土体在达到破坏荷载前的变形形态的缺点,提出了土工带加筋土体切线模量的计算公式,该模型能正确反映土工带加筋土体的变形特性,在岩土工程方面有一定的实际应用价值.     

Evaluating accuracy for two empirical methods in predicting settlement of drilled shafts

Several theoretical, empirical and semi-empirical methods are available in the literature to predict settlement of drilled shafts in sandy soils. In the Arabian Gulf countries, specifically in the United Arab Emirates, equations and procedure from the rest of the world are being used in analysis and design of drilled shafts without proper validation. It is the aim of this study to assess the applicability and evaluate the accuracy of two well known, and commonly used methods for pile prediction in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), namely Vesic (1977) and Poulos (1979), via comparison with data from field pile load tests conducted on shafts drilled in the region. Some of these tests were conducted for the purpose of this study, while others were made available through the courtesy of International Piling Contractors who are active in the region (e.g. Bauer International and Swiss Borings). Pile load test data were analyzed to back-calculate the model parameters related to settlement under different loading stages. Geological data and soil properties were obtained from studies conducted at the relevant sites. An effort is made to correlate soil properties with the prediction models. Statistical analysis is conducted to assess the accuracy of the results obtained from the two methods at different stages of loading via those obtained from pile load tests. Moreover, a detailed parametric study is conducted to assess the effect of the related parameters on the predicted pile settlement and the estimated settlement at different stages of loading. The study concluded with a recommendation of the most appropriate models and procedures to be followed for predicting the settlement of drilled shafts in the UAE, together with useful charts and correlation relations. Results showed that settlement values predicted by Vesic (1977) and Poulos (1979) overestimates the true values. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A furrow runs through it: An example of sustainable traditional irrigation in Western Cape Province,South Africa

Water and water related matters are important issues in water scarce countries like the Republic of South Africa. This is especially true for the agricultural sector that relies heavily on the availability of water for irrigation to ensure a secure food supply. In South Africa, present day irrigation projects rely on government subsidies and are usually large undertakings beyond the reach of individuals or small communities. The sustainability of such large irrigation projects is still a matter of debate. A 100 years ago a different set of rules applied. Irrigation could only be achieved by hand-dug furrows that supplied water in relatively small quantities to small farming communities. This paper investigated such a small community, the Leeukloof farming community in the Western Cape Province of the Republic of South Africa. For the past 93 years this community has maintained a furrow that supplies water not only to farms bordering the Perdeberg River, which supplies the furrow with water, but also to farms not bordering the river. The authors try to reconstruct the changes in agricultural practices brought about by the furrow, methods of water extraction during each phase, as well as the development and role of the furrow system. The perception by the community of the necessity of this method of water extraction from the river system is also investigated. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.