黄土地区地震滑坡的分布特征及其影响因素分析

黄土地区极易形成地震滑坡灾害。现场调查显示，受大地构造单元、基底岩层结构、地形地貌条件、地震烈度、断裂构造和马兰黄土临空厚度等因素影响，地震黄土滑坡的展布形态较为复杂，在空间上分布很不均匀，常表现为片状、带状和线状展布，并在不同区域有不同的发育特点。在地震黄土斜坡稳定性分析和灾害预测中，必须考虑多项影响因子。     

Observation of shear zone development in ring-shear apparatus with a transparent shear box

Using a new ring-shear apparatus with a transparent shear box and video image analysis system, drained and undrained speed-controlled tests were conducted on coarse-grained silica sands to study the shear-zone formation process in granular materials. Velocity distribution profiles of grains under shear at various stages in the ring shear tests were observed through processing the video image by the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) program. Shear-zone thickness and type of shear mode (slide-like or flow-like) during shear were observed. Before reaching peak strength in low-speed and drained condition test, a comparatively major part of the sample in the upper shear box showed a velocity distribution profile of structural deformation and dilatancy behavior. After peak strength, the velocity profile changed into a slide-like mode and thereafter showed almost no change. In higher speed tests with drained and undrained conditions, an almost slide-like mode was observed, compared to low-speed test. Apparent shear-zone thicknesses of high-speed tests are thinner than low-speed tests. Unexpectedly, almost no difference was observed in the shear-zone thickness and mode of shear (slide or flow-like) between drained and undrained tests. This study was conducted as part of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL) M101 “Areal prediction of earthquake and rain induced rapid and long-traveling flow phenomena (APERITIF)” of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). These results will contribute to understanding the mechanism of shear-zone development in granular materials as a basic knowledge for disaster risk mitigation of rapid long run-out landslides.     

The September 8–9, 1998 Rain-Triggered Flood Events at Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

In September 1998 tropical storm “Earl” swept southern Mexico, producing intense rainfall in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Among the most devastated cities was Motozintla, located in the drainage basin of the Allende, La Mina and Xelajú Grande Rivers. The rainfall from the tropical storm totaled 175 mm on September 8 and 130 mm on September 9, duplicating in two days the average monthly precipitation in the region. Numerous landslides occurred in the vicinity of Motozintla, depositing large volumes of material into the Xelajú Grande stream. Much of this sediment was subsequently remobilized, yielding debris flows, hyperconcentrated flows, and sediment-laden flows that inundated most sections of Motozintla city. The flows covered an approximate area of 3.15 km² with a minimum volume of 4.4 × 10⁶ m³ of sediment. Communication of Motozintla with the rest of the Chiapas State was interrupted for about a month, as was the supply of potable water, food, electricity, and fuel. The geologic record around Motozintla indicates that the Xelajú Grande River has been a pathway for similar large floods during the last 6000 years. The oldest deposit yielded a radiocarbon age of 5320 ± 100 ¹⁴C years. B.P. At least two historic floods have occurred during the last 100 years, a time period defined by a stratigraphically distinct tephra of 1902. Frequency analysis of the historical record of daily rainfall in the Motozintla area suggests that events like that of September, 1998, have a recurrence interval of about 25 years. After the catastrophic flows of 1998, the mitigation measures by Municipal Authorities were made without regard to geological and environmental factors, or to taking into consideration the flow magnitude and appropriate hazard-mitigation techniques, with the result that Motozintla remains at serious risk for future floods. Unfortunately, prior to the publication of this study, in early October 2005, Motozintla was seriously damaged again by intense rain provoked by Hurricane Stan.     

Use of LIDAR‐derived images for mapping old landslides under forest

Large, deep‐seated landslides are common features in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium). As most of these old (>100 years) landslides are located under forest in this hilly region, aerial photograph interpretation is not an appropriate landslide mapping method. This study tested the potential of LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) images for mapping old landslides under forest. Landslide inventory maps were created for a 125 km² area by applying the expert knowledge of seven geomorphologists to LIDAR‐derived hillshade, slope and contour line maps in a GIS environment. Each of the seven LIDAR‐based landslide inventories was compared (i) with the other six, (ii) with a detailed field survey‐based inventory, and (iii) with a comparable study in which topographic data were extracted from a topographical map. The combination of the percentage of field landslides indicated by an expert and the percentage of positional discrepancies (expressed in terms of positional mismatch) were used to evaluate the quality of the LIDAR‐based inventory maps. High‐quality LIDAR‐derived landslide inventory maps contain more than 70 per cent of the landslides mapped during the field survey, and have positional discrepancies smaller than 70 per cent when compared with the field survey‐based inventory map. Four experts and the combination map of all experts satisfied these criteria. Together the seven experts indicated all landslides mapped in the field. Importantly, LIDAR enabled the experts to find ten new landslides and to correct the boundaries of eleven (of the 77) landslides mapped during the field survey. Hence, this study showed that large‐scale LIDAR‐derived maps analysed by experienced geomorphologists can significantly improve field survey‐based inventories of landslides with a subdued morphology in hilly regions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

InSAR技术在滑坡灾害中的应用研究进展

InSAR技术作为重要的对地观测技术之一,已在城市、矿山、地质灾害等地表形变监测领域得到广泛应用与探索,特别是在滑坡灾害形变监测中具有很强的实用性。为全面、准确及深入认识和梳理InSAR技术在滑坡灾害应用中的前沿科学问题、局限性、面临挑战及未来发展趋势,以期更好地服务于滑坡灾害的防治与监测。以InSAR技术滑坡灾害应用研究为主要脉络,系统阐述其研究进展:(1)以滑坡监测中应用的主要InSAR方法概述为切入点,系统梳理了各类主要方法的适用范围、优缺点及内在联系;(2)基于早期识别探测、不同量级形变监测、活动模式与三维信息获取、形变与诱因耦合4个视角,深入探析InSAR技术在滑坡应用中的最新进展、趋势及目前应用中存在的关键问题与挑战;(3)针对InSAR技术系统的局限性、滑坡灾害的特点,剖析了InSAR滑坡监测中存在的几何畸变、密集植被覆盖、大气干扰、三维形变信息获取、精度评定、滑坡形变的复杂性和非线性等问题,并对相应问题的解决提供了可行性的方案与建议措施;(4)基于InSAR滑坡行业体系构建的视角,结合人工智能(AI)、机器学习、无人机遥感及地学领域地震台网等其他观测技术,从数据处理、与其他新型技术融合对未来InSAR在滑坡应用研究进行总结和展望。     

GIS支持下基于CF方法的2013年芦山地震滑坡因子敏感性分析

本文依据研究区现有地形因子(高程、坡度、坡向、斜坡曲率)、地质因子(岩性、距深大活动断裂距离)和地震因子(PGA、距震中距离)等相关影响因子资料并结合地震区基本情况,以GIS技术作为操作平台,采用确定性系数法,开展较为详细的芦山地震区地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析工作。首先,以GIS技术作为操作平台将地震滑坡的8个影响因子据研究区特征进行分级,构建不同影响因子分级的栅格图层进行地震滑坡分布相关参数统计; 其次,采用确定性系数法计算8个地震滑坡影响因子分级区间对应的CF值,分别提取出地震滑坡最为敏感分级区间以进行地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析,从而衡量不同影响因子分级区间对地震滑坡易发性敏感程度。地震滑坡影响因子敏感性分析结果表明,除斜坡曲率因子与距震中距离因子对地震滑坡易发性不敏感外,其他6个影响因子对地震滑坡易发性均很敏感,分别是影响滑坡发生的主要地形、地质和地震因子。针对斜坡曲率因子和距震中距离因子对滑坡的易发性不是很敏感是否受内部其他影响因子限制所进行的分析与讨论结果表明,SW向很可能限制了斜坡曲率对地震滑坡易发性的敏感程度,地层岩性对距震中距离因子限制作用更为明显,除奥陶系、志留系外的地层岩性对距震中距离因子敏感性程度都有限制。文章所得成果具有一定的方法理论意义,对于防震减灾工作也具有一定参考意义。     

黄河流域刘家峡—兰州段滑坡灾害的InSAR识别及成因分析

我国滑坡灾害频发,尤其是西部地区,滑坡的隐蔽性强且危害巨大,对其灾害隐患进行早期识别对防灾减灾意义重大.传统的人工排查、大地测量等手段在山区难以开展且耗时耗力,合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术(InSAR)作为新兴的遥感测量手段,可以更精确、高效地进行大范围的滑坡灾害隐患识别.以黄河流域刘家峡-兰州段为研究区,采用永久散射体I...     

贵州省降雨型滑坡预报模型及检验

本文利用贵州省2010—2017年630次降雨型滑坡资料以及国家气象台站和区域自动气象站逐小时降水资料，分析了贵州省降雨型滑坡的时空分布特征。基于5个不同时效降水指标与滑坡累积发生概率的拟合曲线公式，得到不同概率对应的5个降水指标的降水阈值，建立贵州省降雨型滑坡预报模型,并利用2018年新增滑坡样本对预报模型进行检验。结果表明：贵州省降雨型滑坡高发期主要集中在5—7月，其中6月滑坡发生概率最高，约48.6 %；7月次之，约34.9 %。当R1h、R3h、R6h、R24h、R3d分别大于等于26.9 mm、48.9 mm、62.9 mm、79.5 mm、92.0 mm时，发布滑坡预报预警。在降雨型滑坡预报模型中，随着5个不同时效指标的降水量增大，降雨型滑坡累积发生概率变化呈现前后增加缓慢，中间快速增加的变化特征。模型检验结果表明贵州省降雨型滑坡预报模型有一定的准确性，且5个降水指标均具有一定的实用性，其中利用R3d开展降雨型滑坡预报准确率最好。     

Glacial activity and paraglacial landsliding in the Devensian Lateglacial: evidence from Craig Cerrig-gleisiad and Fan Dringarth,Fforest Fawr (Brecon Beacons), South Wales

The tongue-shaped mass of debris and associated ridges on the cirque floor below Craig Cerrig-gleisiad, Brecon Beacons National Park is important and controversial because it has been attributed to more than one glacier advance during the Late Devensian. A new origin is proposed involving landslide development from the collapse of part of the western headwall followed by a single phase of glacier development in the Loch Lomond Stadial (Younger Dryas), which reworked the landslide sediments. Evidence for this landslide, which provides useful criteria for differentiating moraines formed by small glaciers from landslides, lies in tension cracks, backward-tilted blocks and bedrock joints dipping out of the western headwall, together with lateral levées, upstanding termini and angular clasts with only occasional, indistinct striae on the tongue-shaped mass, which is interpreted as a flowslide. Glacier reworking of debris in the upper part of the Cwm Cerrig-gleisiad landslide is indicated by subparallel ridges rising to 20 m above the cirque floor containing abraded clasts (16-32% striated). This interpretation is supported by a comparison with the morphological and sedimentary characteristics of a neighbouring landslide at Fan Dringarth, where no glacier developed in the Loch Lomond Stadial. The existence of paraglacial landsliding has significant palaeoenvironmental implications leading to: (1) erroneously large estimates of equilibrium line depression ($Δ$ELA) in the Loch Lomond Stadial; (2) consequent underestimates of summer palaeotemperatures and/or overestimates of the contribution of wind-drifted snow to glacier accumulation; and (3) larger moraines than usual and overestimation of the efficacy of glacial erosion because of antecedent processes.