Holocene reactivations of catastrophic complex flow-like landslides in the Flysch Carpathians (Czech Republic/Slovakia)

Complex flow-like landslides (CFLLs) are important geomorphic agents of Late Quaternary mountain evolution in the Flysch Belt of the Outer Western Carpathians. The CFLLs are characterised by the upper section of deep-seated, retrogressive landslide of structurally unfavourably oriented rocks and lower sections composed of earthflows originated due to liquefaction of material accumulated from the upper slopes. Radiocarbon dating of organic matter incorporated into landslide debris or related deposits suggests that most of the CFLLs collapsed repeatedly throughout the Holocene with typical recurrence intervals of approximately 1–2 ka. Catastrophic landslides that occurred during extreme hydrometeorological events in recent decades displayed evidence of Holocene activity. Most of the CFLLs dammed and steepened adjacent valleys. Our chronological dataset is biased by erosion of older landforms, but most of the dated reactivations correlate to regional increases in humidity identified by previous paleoenvironmetal studies.     

基于多元统计的甘肃永靖黑方台滑坡强度预测模型

预测滑坡强度是滑坡风险分析与控制的基础和关键.以黑方台为研究区,在野外调查的基础上,针对研究区35处滑坡几何参数的数理统计,系统地分析了滑距与滑坡几何特征参数的相关关系,并按照黄土滑坡、黄土-基岩滑坡分别建立了滑坡空间预测的一元回归和多元回归统计模型.在统计模型中,分别以原始边坡坡度、塌落角、滑体宽度等因素为自变量,以滑坡延伸角为因变量,采用单因素和多因素拟合的方法,实现滑坡强度的简便预测.     

四川康定母猪笼沟泥石流形成特征与物源定量计算

母猪笼泥石流的形成条件、受控因素和变化发展趋势在康定地区及周边具有代表性。通过调查,母猪笼沟形成区两岸滑坡体较大,主要为6个滑坡体和3个沼泽淤积土,边坡稳定性较差,在强降雨、饱水以及地震情况下,失稳可能性较大。综合分析,母猪笼沟松散物总储量达268050 m3,强活动物源(一次泥石流最大可能提供的物源量)储量达22550 m3。从水源、地形、物源补给、人工活动方面上,母猪笼沟泥石流处于活跃阶段,发生泥石流的可能性较大。     

走滑断裂型地震诱发的滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异

以玉树地震滑坡为实例,选择高程、坡度、坡向、坡位、水系、地层岩性、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)8个因子,以地震滑坡面积百分比(LAP)与滑坡点密度(LND)为指标,研究走滑断裂型地震诱发滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异。在分析这些影响因子的断裂两盘的差异的基础上,基于LAP与LND两个指标详细分析断裂两盘每个因子内部级别滑坡发育的情况。结果表明,总体上北盘的滑坡较南盘发育,除了个别因子级别内南北盘滑坡差别较大外,大部分表现为南北盘滑坡分布情况类似。总之,玉树地震滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布基本类似,只是在某些因子分级内存在一定的差异。     

2013年芦山地震滑坡空间分布分析——以太平镇东北方向的一个典型矩形区为例

选择2013年芦山地震中受到强烈地震动的太平镇东北方向一个20kmxl0km的矩形区作为研究区,开展芦山地震滑坡空间分析工作.基于震后野外调查与高分辨率航片人工目视解译法,建立了研究区内地震滑坡空间分布图.结果表明,在研究区内芦山地震至少触发了688处滑坡,区域内滑坡点密度为3.44个/km2.统计了地震滑坡密度与地形因子、地层岩性、地震因子的关系.滑坡最易发高程为1 600～1 800m;滑坡密度大体随着坡度的增加而增加;E与SE方向是地震滑坡的易发坡向与高发坡向;凸坡的地震滑坡易发性最高.二叠系阳新组(Py)的灰岩与白云岩、元古界花岗岩(Pt)是地震滑坡的易发岩性.地震因子与滑坡密度的统计结果表明,大体上PGA值越大,地震烈度越高,地震滑坡越易发生;地震滑坡与距离双石-大川断裂的统计结果表明在双石-大川断裂的出露处地震滑坡密度未发生突变.因子的交互统计结果表明了坡度与PGA这2个因子作用于地震滑坡的独立性.     

基于证据权方法的玉树地震滑坡危险性评价

玉树地震诱发了2 036处滑坡。应用地理信息系统与遥感技术,选取与地表破裂距离、峰值加速度(PGA)、高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、坡位、与水系距离、岩性、与断裂距离、与公路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)等12个因素作为玉树地震滑坡危险性评价因子,采用加法与减法2种证据权方法,开展玉树地震滑坡危险性评价研究工作。结果表明:基于加法证据权方法得到评价结果的正确率为80.32%,基于减法证据权方法得到结果的正确率为80.19%。将滑坡危险性评价结果图分为极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区、低危险区与极低危险区5类。这一成果可划分出滑坡危险区,为灾后滑坡防治、基础设施重建与自然环境保护提供参考。     

鬼招手滑坡的特征及失稳机制

鬼招手滑坡位于“5·12”汶川地震极重灾区彭州市内,是地震4a后暴雨诱发的高速滑坡.剖析了主滑体和堆积区Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ的特征;分析了影响该边坡稳定性并诱发滑坡的6大因素,包括地层岩性、河流及泥石流冲刷掏蚀坡脚、暴雨及雨水下渗、断裂及“5.12”汶川地震、地貌、人类工程活动,其中持续暴雨是滑坡主要诱发因素;计算了主滑体抛射初速度为40.41 m/s,运动距离为137m,定义了主滑体的破坏模式为滑移-抛射模式;总结了滑坡的破坏过程,分为坡体累积破坏、坡体启动、坡体运动、坡体堆积稳定4个阶段;对比分析了暴雨和地震诱发的高速滑坡的不同之处,对于地震灾区的防灾减灾工作具有一定参考价值.     

Changes in land cover and shallow landslide activity: A case study in the Spanish Pyrenees

The Pyrenees, like many other mountain areas in Europe, have experienced depopulation and land abandonment during the 20th century. This has encouraged vegetation recovery in formerly occupied areas, including reforestation to promote woodland. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of these changes on shallow landsliding, a process responsible for erosion and land degradation in many mountain areas. A sequence of aerial images reveals a slight decrease in the landslide occurrence rate in the last half of the 20th century and a parallel increase in the landslide extinction rate, i.e. the rate at which evidence of landslide activity is removed by vegetation colonisation. A logistic regression routine was used to assess the influence of land use and vegetation recovery in the occurrence of shallow landslides. The result shows that the former arable fields on the valley slopes still facilitate landsliding, even after land abandonment and revegetation by shrubs or trees. A shift in the topographic location of landslides was also detected, pointing to an increased importance of water redistribution in the slopes after prolonged rainfall periods.     

A Multidisciplinary Methodology for Hazard and Risk Assessment of Rock Avalanches

Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods, many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient reliability. Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy     

The effect of sub-alpine landslides on headwater stream gradient and beaver habitat

During previous work in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, we observed that headwater (first-order) streams draining landslides were often characterized by the presence of beaver (Castor canadensis) dams whereas other headwater tributaries typically lacked evidence of beaver. Here, we hypothesize that hummocky landslide topography attracts beaver. To test the hypothesis, we examined 10 landslides and 11 adjacent headwater streams in the area, noting location, vegetation, elevation, and evidence of beaver activity, and then compared the landslide and non-landslide headwater streams using the G-test to determine whether or not variables were independent of one another. We reject the null hypothesis that beaver dam presence is unrelated to landslide deposits (p = 0.003). We further hypothesize that this relationship results from differences in stream gradient and concavity between landslide streams and other streams. We found streams on landslides to have a greater portion of their gradients below what geologic and ecologic literature suggests is a reasonable upper threshold (12%) for beaver dam maintenance. Additionally, streams on landslides are more concave. We conclude that the relationship between beaver presence and landslides results from a higher proportion of reaches below the 12% threshold and increased concavity of headwater streams on landslides.