Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

Environmental geology problems in the Tyrrhenian coastal area of Santa Marinella, province of Rome, central Italy

 The Tyrrhenian resort of S. Marinella (central Italy) is subjected to significant anthropogenic pressures during the summer vacation period, a common situation all along the Italian coast. Located 65 km NW of Rome on the southern slopes of the Tolfa Mountains, S. Marinella is built on a gently sloping, E–W trending belt which is cut by 14 N–S oriented ephemeral streams that discharge into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The low to medium permeability turbiditic sandstones which outcrop along this belt belong to the Late Cretaceous Pietraforte unit. Three environmental problems are addressed in this study. The first problem is related to the high water supply demand during the summer months which has forced local residents to dig a large number of wells. Extensive pumping from these wells has caused salt-water intrusion into the Pietraforte, thus compromising the domestic use of the groundwater. The second problem consists of the illegal dumping of urban solid waste, material that represents a hazard during significant rain events as well as a possible cause of groundwater contamination. The final issue addressed concerns the flooding potential of the 14 ephemeral streams that cross the inhabited area of S. Marinella, a risk which is highlighted by the disastrous flood which occurred on 2 October 1981 and during the period of the Roman Emperor Settimio Severo (205 A.D.). Some suggestions are proposed to mitigate and contain the effects of these problems. Received: 7 November 1995 / Accepted: 5 December 1996     

A Block-Based Theoretical Model Suited to Gravitational Sliding

An original theoretical model has been devised to simulate mass flow over hill slopes due to gravitational sliding. The sliding mass is discretized into a sequence of contiguous blocks which are subjected to gravitational forces, to bottom friction and to surface resistance stresses that are generally negligible for subaerial flows, but are relevant for submarine slides. The blocks interact with each other while sliding down the hill flanks because of internal forces that dissipate mechanical energy and produce a momentum exchange between the individual blocks, yet conserving the total momentum of the mass. Internal forces are expressed in terms of interaction coefficients depending on the instantaneous distance between the block centers of mass, which is a measure of the deformation experienced by the blocks: the functional dependence includes three parameters, namely the interaction intensity ¯, the deformability parameter and the shape parameter , by means of which a wide range of interaction types can be fully accounted for. The time integration is performed numerically by solving the equations for the block velocities and positions at any time ti by means of the block accelerations at the previous time t_i-1, and by subsequently updating the block accelerations, which allows to proceed iteratively to the following times. The model has been tested against laboratory results available from literature and by means of several numerical experiments involving a simplified geometry both for the sliding body and the basal surface, with the purpose of clarifying the influence of the model parameters on the slide dynamics. The model improves the performance of the existing kinematic models for slides, moreover preserving an equivalent numerical simplicity. Future applications and possible improvements of this model are suggested.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

洛安江干渠老菁湾滑坡分析

洛安江水库灌溉工程是贵州黔北万亩以上骨干工程之一,中华人民共和国成立初期建成。１９９１年＂７．５Ｆ＂洪灾,连续大暴雨,河水暴涨,倒灌暗河,产生高静、动水压力作用。岸坡岩体受不利结构面组合,发生顺层岩质滑坡,破坏干渠,严重影响灌溉。本文根据滑坡破坏情况,对滑坡产生的地质环境、滑坡特征、滑坡形成机理（滑坡形式和破坏机理,各种稳定性分析与评价）,以及产生滑坡原因进行了初步分析。     

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

良好植被区泥石流防治初探

通过对近年来发生在良好植被区的几次重大泥石流、滑坡灾害的考察,发现植被在泥石流、滑坡形成中的作用有待于进一步认识。通过分析,当中小强度降雨激发下,植被能够削减泥石流、滑坡灾害的规模,甚至抑制泥石流、滑坡灾害的发生;当降雨超过一定阀值后,在水作用下,植被不但不能削减灾害规模,反而增大灾害的规模。在这类地区,简单地使用一般的防治措施,已经不能满足防灾、减灾的需要,客观要求针对这些地区泥石流灾害的形成原因、危害特征,研究防治对策。经初步研究提出3点防治措施:1)加强泥石流滑坡灾害的预测预报工作;2)在重点区域设置自动雨量记录报警装置;3)特别针对漂木拦挡,采取新型结构减轻泥石流的危害。     

山地灾害研究的发展态势与任务

泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害已成为世界各国十分关注的自然灾害问题。据最近几年的国际学术会议,泥石流、滑坡研究的前沿领域是：泥石流、滑坡活动的地带性与全球气候变化的规律；泥石流、滑坡起动机理、动力学模型；泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害风险分析、发生时间预报；成灾机理与减灾防灾关键技术。国内研究较晚,但发展很快。经过近50 a的研究,涉及上述诸多研究颁域。但研究不深,还存在不少差距。据国内外研究态势,针对山地所实际,提出了在泥石流、滑坡理论创新和防治关键技术等研究方面12条任务。