应变能释放随时间变化的聚类方法研究

由于线性回归模型应用的广泛性，本文设定样品集的趋势是线性的，在用最优分割法对地震活动性类研究的基础上引进线性模型，扩大了最优分割法在地震活动性分类中的应用，将降类问题与建模问题有机地结合起来，去揭示地震活动性中的某种内在规律，这对于探索地震预报，研究地震发生的规律性有一定的实际意义。     

山东及其沿海地区强震（M≥6）发生的地质构造背景

本文总结了山东及其沿海地区Ｍ≥６级地震发生的地质构造背景，发现山东及其沿海地区强震活动很少发生在新构造单元内部，而是主要集中于新构造单元边界上，活动断裂对强震具明显的控震作用，不同活动时代，不同切割深度断裂，其控震能力不同，活动断裂交汇处是发生强震较多的地方。     

大灰厂跨断层形变资料的地震信息识别

利用具有明显物理意义的断层蠕动模型在充分考虑可能存在的干扰因素影响的基础上，对大灰石台跨断层地形变资料在１９８９年大同地震前后出现的较大幅度变化进行了异常属性分析。结果表明，这个时期的异常变化尽管叠加有一定的降雨影响，但蠕动模型计算得出的地表变化理论值与实际变化有一定程度的符合，显示出在区域应力场作用下，八宝山断层局部地段在大同地震前后可能存在着与区域应力场应力增强及应力调理有关的构造活动。     

Rapid deglaciation as an initiator of volcanic activity: An hypothesis

Volcanic activity on sub-Antarctic Marion Island is found to have occurred only during the interglacials. The present volcano distribution is associated with a radial and peripheral fault system, the location of which appears to be related to the former glacier distribution. An hypothesis is presented suggesting that the faulting is a result of deglaciation and that the specific location of the faults is due to the differential stresses occurring between ice-covered and ice-free areas during isostatic uplift. The faulting initiates volcanism due to the location of the island within a volcanic region.     

西藏易贡崩塌——滑坡—泥石流的地质地貌与运动学特征

2000年4月9日19时59分18.2秒,在西藏自治区波密县境内易贡乡发生了特大崩塌—滑坡—泥石流。构造上它发生在印度板块阿萨姆楔入角复合地带的西侧,也是高原腹地向东侧山地下降的过渡带,重力作用明显。根据便携式GPS定位仪实地测定和滑坡前后的卫星影像分析,崩塌—滑坡—泥石流堆积物形成了一座长约5.7km、宽约1.5km的“天然大坝”,完全堵塞了易贡藏布河干流,崩塌滑坡体总方量超过3.8×10~8m~3。根据区域地震台网的记录,其振动持续的时间为6min,其中最大振幅的持续时间为2min。震相分析表明有3组较为明显的震相,对应着3次较大的地表振动。计算获得崩塌滚落的平均速度约为48m/s,伴随崩塌滚落的同时,滑坡泥石流的平均滑动速度也达到了16 m/s,比一般泥石流流动速度要大一倍。     

台北盆地构造特征及形成机制探讨

台北盆地位于台湾造山带的北部,它的形成有其特殊的机制而不同于一般意义上由于造山带的垮塌直接导致的盆地。钻井、地震勘探等资料表明,控制盆地形成的山脚断层并不是一条完整的正断层,而是由 3个段落组成,每个段落控制 1个沉积中心,彼此之间没有沟通。山脚断层各段落的活动性并不相同,向NE方向随时间逐渐增强,目前最为活动的段落集中在中段和北段,南段已不活动。台北盆地并不是一个孤立发育的盆地,是与金山断层东南的大屯火山群同时陷落的,具有一致的地球物理场背景、沉降规模以及正断层活动,广义的台北盆地从沉降范围和机制上还应该包括金山断层以南的大屯火山群。盆地周围发育了一系列的火山 (群),由于盆地的发育是紧随这些火山主要活动之后的,盆地的形成与周围火成活动有着必然联系,一些地球物理资料和盆地内的构造发育及沉积迁移特征表明,台北盆地的发育是深部岩浆体的冷却收缩所致。台北盆地深部存在与大屯火山群深部相通的岩浆体,岩浆体的冷却由南向北迁移     

滑坡钢筋砼格构防治"倒梁法"内力计算研究

格构锚固技术能有效地控制滑坡深部和浅表破坏,提高锚固体系的整体刚度。目前在格构 锚杆体系的设计中,大多采用经验设计钢筋砼格构,常导致配筋不合理,不仅造成浪费,而且可能埋下工程隐患。本文采用“倒梁法”对格构梁的内力计算方法进行研究,对滑坡防护钢筋格构进行如下简化:(1)锚杆对格构梁的作用以垂向力为主,轴向力可以忽略不计。(2)纵向格构梁的刚度大于横向格构梁的刚度,因而横向格构梁的内力计算可以简化,钢筋砼格构可以作为在锚杆施力下的超静定连续梁。结合三峡工程库区巫山新城秀峰寺滑坡格构防护工程设计,通过“三弯矩方程”进行了格构梁内力实例计算,为格构梁的合理设计提供了依据。     

Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

Significance of variations in the wind energy environment over the past 50 years with respect to dune activity and desertification in arid and semiarid northern China

Climate data from 339 meteorological stations collected from the 1950s to the early 2000s was employed to discuss aeolian activity in arid and semiarid northern China. The results show that at decadal time scales, erosivity varied greatly in this region. Most of arid and semiarid northern China was characterised by environments with moderate to low wind energy. After the 1980s, the erosivity was only 20 to 50% of that beforehand, and this difference had a significant impact on the environmental changes observed during the two periods. The dune mobility index was consistent with the observed dune activity. After the 1980s dune activity decreased and in some deserts with vegetated dune systems during the 1970s most of the dune plinths were active until the 1980s, after which only the crests were active. Some mobile dunes that had developed at the margins of mobile deserts were replaced by semi-anchored or anchored dunes. Because most desert areas with vegetated dune systems in arid and semiarid northern China are used for farming or grazing, the results of our monitoring show that the desertification trends were consistent with the trends in erosivity and dune activity in this region. Desertification was controlled much more by climatic changes than has previously been acknowledged, and especially by fluctuations in wind energy.