中美县级土地整治政策对比研究

通过对比分析美国洛杉矶县住房供应规划中空闲地和低效利用地整治与我国县级城乡建设用地增减挂钩规划中农村空闲地和低效利用地整治在目的、空闲地和低效利用地确定、公共参与、与总体规划关系方面的差异,分析了我国目前县级城乡建设用地增减挂钩规划存在的不足,并进行了讨论。     

Fighting Fire with Fire: Does a Policy of Broad-Scale Prescribed Burning Improve Community Safety?

Wildfires cause enormous damage worldwide, particularly in Victoria, Australia, with growing populations in fire-prone ecosystems. Broad-scale prescribed burning is an established, yet controversial, wildfire management policy in Victoria and Australia. But does broad-scale prescribed burning reduce fire damage? The answer depends on how damage is measured. We propose that different perceptions about the efficacy of broad-scale prescribed burning derive from different disciplinary measures of damage (e.g., biodiversity, area burned, or fatalities). Although broad-scale prescribed burning reduces subsequent wildfire size, there is little evidence that it saves human lives and homes. Evidence suggests that small-scale fuel reduction may be more effective at saving lives. The prescribed burning debate might be better focused on what damage we wish to limit, and which measures are most effective at limiting this damage. In this context, the current policy focus on broad-scale prescribed burning targets may distract efforts from more effective lifesaving strategies.     

老工业区产业结构转型与用地结构转型互动机制及优化路径——以上海市宝山区为例

尝试理清老工业区产业结构转型与用地结构转型内涵,提出其转型效率的函数表达,分析二者间的互动关系;并运用改进的动态变化度及偏离系数,对上海市宝山区进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)宝山区产业结构与用地结构变化度逐渐增加,工业和第三产业动态度分别由1996年的2.48%和5.36%上升至2012年的4.75%和5.51%,用地结构动态度由11.16%上升至13.53%;(2)宝山区三次产业结构总体趋于优化,但产业内部并未优化,仍以重化工业和传统服务业为主导;(3)宝山区用地结构与产业结构不协调并处于加剧的状态。老工业区产业结构与用地结构存在较强的互动关系,改进的动态变化度及偏离系数方法为老工业区产业结构转型与用地结构转型问题提供了一种研究思路。提出宝山区产业结构转型与用地结构转型的优化路径。     

西双版纳土地利用/覆盖格局的热环境效应研究

利用Landsat TM/ETM＋数据的热红外波段,通过单通道算法,反演了中国热带西双版纳地区的地表温度,并对西双版纳地表温度演变的规律进行了分析,结果显示：（1）研究期间,西双版纳土地利用/覆盖发生了剧烈变化,有林地面积不断减少,旱地、灌木林、茶园与橡胶园面积不断增加;（2）旱地、荒草地、茶园、建设用地的地表真实温度的平均值较高,水体和有林地的平均温度较低;（3）旱地、灌木林、有林地、荒草地和橡胶园对区域的热效应贡献较大,水体、水浇地、建设用地、滩涂和水体的热效应贡献较小;有林地的热单元权重有不断减少的趋势,灌木林与旱地的热单元权重有不断增加的趋势;（4）西双版纳土地利用/覆盖的剧烈变化改变了区域地表温度的分布格局,最终可能会导致地方气候变化。需要进一步开展西双版纳地区LUCC—气候—生态系统耦合研究,深入研究区域LUCC特别是橡胶园的时空变化过程及其气候/生态效应、气候变化与LUCC过程的互馈机制,为实现区域可持续发展提供科学依据。     

永安市低丘缓坡林地的建设用地适宜性评价研究

本研究以福建省永安市为例,通过建立永安市低丘缓坡林地资源建设用地适宜性评价体系,进行建设用地适宜性评价,得到永安市低丘缓坡林地资源建设用地适宜性等级图,结果表明:永安市最适宜开发建设用地的低丘缓坡林地主要分布在中部偏北地区,基本适宜开发建设用地的土地面积占的比重最大;不适宜开发区域所占比重最小。在土地开发建设过程中要综合考虑自然环境、社会条件等各方面的因素,科学合理的开发利用土地。     

Radiative forcing over China due to albedo change caused by land cover change during 1990–2010

Land cover change affects surface radiation budget and energy balance by chang- ing surface albedo and further impacts the regional and global climate. In this article, high spatial and temporal resolution satellite products were used to analyze the driving mechanism for surface albedo change caused by land cover change during 1990-2010. In addition, the annual-scale radiative forcing caused by surface albedo changes in China＇s 50 ecological regions were calculated to reveal the biophysical mechanisms of land cover change affecting climate change at regional scale. Our results showed that the national land cover changes were mainly caused by land reclamation, grassland desertification and urbanization in past 20 years, which were almost induced by anthropogenic activities. Grassland and forest area decreased by 0.60% and 0.11%, respectively. The area of urban and farmland increased by 0.60% and 0.19%, respectively. The mean radiative forcing caused by land cover changes during 1990-2010 was 0.062 W/m2 in China, indicating a warming climate effect. However, spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing was huge among different ecological regions. Farmland conversing to urban construction land, the main type of land cover change for the urban and suburban agricultural ecological region in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, caused an albedo reduction by 0.00456 and a maximum positive radiative forcing of 0.863 WIm2, which was presented as warming climate effects. Grassland and forest conversing to farmland, the main type of land cover change for the temperate humid agricultural and wetland ecological region in Sanjiang Plain, caused an albedo increase by 0.00152 and a maximum negative radiative forcing of 0.184 W/m2, implying cooling climate effects.     

The total operating characteristic to measure diagnostic ability for multiple thresholds

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is a popular statistical method to measure the association between observed and diagnosed presence of a characteristic. The diagnosis of presence or absence depends on whether the value of an index variable is above a threshold. ROC considers multiple possible thresholds. Each threshold generates a two-by-two contingency table, which contains four central entries: hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. ROC reveals for each threshold only two ratios, hits/(hits + misses) and false alarms/(false alarms + correct rejections). This article introduces the total operating characteristic (TOC), which shows the total information in the contingency table for each threshold. TOC maintains desirable properties of ROC, while TOC reveals strictly more information than ROC in a manner that makes TOC more useful than ROC. We illustrate the concepts with an application to land change science.     

基于微观视角的农村居民点发展评价与布局优化——以陕西省重点示范镇沙河子镇为例

将生态位态势理论应用于农村居民点布局研究,从发展水平和发展潜力两方面选取指标分别作为发展"态"和发展"势"的评价因素,构建农村居民点发展评价模型,对居民点的发展实力划分等级。然后结合加权Voronoi图,明确各发展等级居民点的搬迁去向,从而实现全镇整治分区规划。沙河子镇农村居民点的发展实力可划分为高、中、低和不适宜发展4个等级;农村居民点整体发展较好,高、中发展实力级的居民点用地面积为304.07hm2,占全区的84.23%;具有明显的地形分异特征,其发展等级呈现由中部向南北两侧递减的趋势;全镇以农村居民点城镇化为整理重点,划分为城镇化区、优先发展区、改造发展区和控制发展区4种整治分区。结合生态位态势理论和加权Voronoi图的农村居民点合理布局研究具有较强的现实指导意义。     

基于地块图斑单元的湖南省土地生态承载力评价

从人口、资源、环境、发展之间的关系入手,充分利用土地调查、地质调查、水文地质、环境地质调查、土壤普查、农业普查等成果和资料信息,以地块图斑为分析单元,以地理信息系统、遥感技术以及数学模型分析为手段,采用层次分析法和综合指数法对湖南省土地生态承载力进行分析和评价.研究表明,湖南省土地生态承载力地域差异明显,整体处于由低层次的不均衡逐渐向高层次的均衡方向发展.     

平原农区典型县域土地非农化对乡村系统的影响

科学揭示土地非农化与乡村发展之间的作用机理是促进城乡一体化健康发展的必然需求.本文选取了平原农区典型县域山东省禹城市和桓台县作为研究区,通过分析不同发展阶段县域土地非农化与乡村系统演化特征,剖析了县域土地非农化对乡村系统的影响.结果表明:随着县域经济由低级向高级阶段演进,土地非农化的规模与比重呈现增长态势,乡村系统整体处于正向演化态势,禹城市和桓台县E指数分别由0.295和0.197增至0.798与0.700.土地非农化对乡村系统的影响是一个由弱变强的过程,土地非农化比重的增加会带来乡村一些要素的剧烈变化,其中,乡村经济子系统与社会子系统对土地非农化过程的敏感性较强.构建乡村人口转移与农地规模经营的保障机制,规范土地利用规划与管理,增强县域辐射能力,是平原农区土地非农化与乡村转型发展的调控重点.