Identification of rural land management signals in runoff response

Rural land management signals in catchment‐scale runoff have proven difficult to identify in general. The Pontbren experimental catchment in upland Wales, UK, provides a new data set with which to address this challenge. This data set includes more than 4 years of data from six tipping bucket rainfall gauges and eight stream flow gauges representing different land management regimes at different scales. Data‐based mechanistic rainfall–runoff models were fitted to this data set using the CAPTAIN toolbox. The spatial and temporal variabilities of model parameters were identified and interpreted where possible. The analysis highlighted a dependency between the modelled residence time and the presence of agriculturally improved grassland, which produced a flashier response than grassland in a more natural condition. Another factor found to strongly affect the spatial variability of runoff response was the presence of lakes, while catchment area had a less pronounced effect, and the influence of trees, steepness and soil type could not be identified. Some time variability of response was observed but this was not consistent across the catchment and could not easily be interpreted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study

Brazilian semi‐arid regions are characterized by water scarcity, vulnerability to desertification, and climate variability. The investigation of hydrological processes in this region is of major interest not only for water planning strategies but also to address the possible impact of future climate and land‐use changes on water resources. A hydrological distributed catchment‐scale model (DiCaSM) has been applied to simulate hydrological processes in a small representative catchment of the Brazilian northeast semi‐arid region, and also to investigate the impact of climate and land‐use changes, as well as changes associated with biofuel/energy crops production. The catchment is part of the Brazilian network for semi‐arid hydrology, established by the Brazilian Federal Government. Estimating and modelling streamflow (STF) and recharge in semi‐arid areas is a challenging task, mainly because of limitation in in situ measurements, and also due to the local nature of some processes. Direct recharge measurements are very difficult in semi‐arid catchments and contain a high level of uncertainty. The latter is usually addressed by short‐ and long‐time‐scale calibration and validation at catchment scale, as well as by examining the model sensitivity to the physical parameters responsible for the recharge. The DiCaSM model was run from 2000 to 2008, and streamflow was successfully simulated, with a Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient of 0·73, and R² of 0·79. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios for the region, the DiCaSM model forecasted a reduction by 35%, 68%, and 77%, in groundwater recharge (GWR), and by 34%, 65%, and 72%, in streamflow, for the time spans 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, respectively, could take place for a dry future climate scenario. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Introducing castor beans to the catchment would increase the GWR and streamflow, mainly if the caatinga areas would be converted into castor beans production. Changing an area of 1000 ha from caatinga to castor beans would increase the GWR by 46% and streamflow by 3%. If the same area of pasture is converted into castor beans, there would be an increase in GWR and streamflow by 24% and 5%, respectively. Such results are expected to contribute towards environmental policies for north‐east Brazil (NEB), and to biofuel production perspectives in the region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Above‐stream microclimate and stream surface energy exchanges in a wildfire‐disturbed riparian zone

Stream temperature and riparian microclimate were characterized for a 1·5 km wildfire‐disturbed reach of Fishtrap Creek, located north of Kamloops, British Columbia. A deterministic net radiation model was developed using hemispherical canopy images coupled with on‐site microclimate measurements. Modelled net radiation agreed reasonably with measured net radiation. Air temperature and humidity measured at two locations above the stream, separated by 900 m, were generally similar, whereas wind speed was poorly correlated between the two sites. Modelled net radiation varied considerably along the reach, and measurements at a single location did not provide a reliable estimate of the modelled reach average. During summer, net radiation dominated the surface heat exchanges, particularly because the sensible and latent heat fluxes were normally of opposite sign and thus tended to cancel each other. All surface heat fluxes shifted to negative values in autumn and were of similar magnitude through winter. In March, net radiation became positive, but heat gains were cancelled by sensible and latent heat fluxes, which remained negative. A modelling exercise using three canopy cover scenarios (current, simulated pre‐wildfire and simulated complete vegetation removal) showed that net radiation under the standing dead trees was double that modelled for the pre‐fire canopy cover. However, post‐disturbance standing dead trees reduce daytime net radiation reaching the stream surface by one‐third compared with complete vegetation removal. The results of this study have highlighted the need to account for reach‐scale spatial variability of energy exchange processes, especially net radiation, when modelling stream energy budgets. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radon in soil anomaly observed at Los Azufres geothermal field,Michoacan: a possible precursor of the 1985 Mexico earthquake (Ms = 8.1)

A radon anomaly in a nuclear track detector placed on a fault was detected prior to the destructive (Ms = 8.1) Mexican earthquake of 19 September 1985. The fault is a structural feature of the geothermal field Los Azufres, 260 km NE of the epicentral area. Since no other phenomenon can be found as a possible cause for the radon anomaly, it is proposed that preseismic regional stress perturbations may produce changes in the fluid transport patterns at the fault, suggesting that radon measurements in similar conditions could provide a good precursor in high seismic risk areas.     

远东地区f0Es剧增与K指数突变的关系

一、前言 中纬度地区电离层E_s的成因与影响因素是一复杂的问题。远东地区E_s既多又强,其它电离层现象也有一些特色,本文在文献[9]的基础上,从分析原始频高图入手,对远东地区夜间f₀E_s剧增与地磁K指数的关系作了统计研究,发现两者之间关系甚为密切,即地磁K指数的突然变化伴随着夜间E_s层临界频率f₀E_s的剧烈增加。     

Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: The tyne basin,Northern England

This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.     

Explorations into the formal structure of drainage basins

Every basin of higher than first order is drained by a channel network composed of two subnetworks. Their basins are separated by a drainage divide line, called the basin divider, which is the primary organizing feature of the main basin. Each basin of magnitude n contains n – 1 subnetworks of higher order, and is therefore organized by a set of n – 1 dividers. The dividers and the basin boundary are interconnected in a graph called the divider network of the basin; in graph-theoretic terms this network forms a tree and has the same magnitude and link numbers as the channel network draining the basin. While the subbasins and subnetworks of a drainage basin form a nesting hierarchy, the corresponding dividers do not; indeed, any two dividers share at most one node in common, and whether they do so is independent of whether the corresponding subbasins are nesting or disjoint. However, the dividers of nesting basins are linked by recursive relationships which permit the derivation of a set of algebraic equations; these equations relate the dividers of a basin to other basin components; for example, their combined length is equal to half the length of all first-order basin boundaries minus the length of the main basin boundary. The second part of the paper explores the dependence of the divider length on other basin parameters. The expected length, as predicted by the assumption of topological randomness, is clearly rejected by the data. An alternative approach (regression) is based on the observed magnitudes of the subbasins separated by each divider, and is reasonably successful in estimating divider length. The last section introduces the concept of the standardized basin defined by a boundary length of unity; the estimated lengths of the basin divider and the basin boundary permit an approximate reconstruction of the idealized basin shape and the location of the divider in it.