Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

在"数字国土工程"中我区地学数据库建设的现状及发展趋势

近年来,在国土资源部的高度重视下,我区相继建立了一系列地学数据库。这些地学数据库的建立不仅为地矿行业提供了基础性数据,也加速了"数字国土工程"和国土资源信息化建设的步伐。随着信息技术的高速发展,利用地理信息系统(GIS)将各类地学数据有机地结合起来,形成地学数据应用与管理系统,最终通过网络服务于社会,必将是各类地学数据发展的必然趋势。     

南向行星际磁场事件与磁暴关系的研究

利用172-182年IMP-8飞船的太阳风观测资料和相应地磁活动性指数Dst和AE,研究了43个南向行星际磁场事件期间太阳风和磁层的耦合问题. 与这43个事件对应的地磁暴是中等的和强的磁暴(Dst＜-50nT). 结果表明:(1) 在43个事件中有11个(约占25.6髎)紧随激波之后,18个处于激波下游流场中(占42髎),其余14个(占33髎)和激波没有关连. 绝大多数事件都伴有太阳风动压和总磁场强度的增加;(2) 当行星际晨昏向电场强度EI＞-4mV/m时,只引起磁亚暴,对Dst指数没有明显影响. 仅当EI＜-5mV/m时,磁亚暴和磁暴才会同时出现;(3) 太阳风动压的增加会增强能量向环电流的输入,但不是密度和速度单独起作用,而是以PK=ρV2的组合形式影响能量的输入;(4) 虽然行星际磁场(IMF)南向分量BZ对太阳风和磁层的耦合起着关键作用,但IMF的BX和BY分量相对于BZ的大小对太阳风向磁层的能量传输也有一定影响. 当BX、BY相对BZ较大时能量耦合加强.     

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.     

中国耕地有机质含量变化对土地生产力影响的定量研究

在土地持续利用与管理研究中，土地质量变化对土地生产力影响的定量研究是核心内容之一。借助新古典经济学的生产函数法，构建了我国耕地的生产函数模型，定量模拟了我国耕地有机质含量变化的边际产出率性和边际生产力。初步结果表明，由于我国长期存在耕过度利用导致有机质含量及肥力下降问题，当前提高耕地质量的增产潜力十分可观。     

社会主义市场经济条件下的土地储备及其模式选择

社会主义市场经济建设的逐步完善，要求我们必须改变传统的土地管理思路，土地储备作为政府经营城市的一种重要手段，能够使政府在土地管理的实践中实现资源与资产并重的目标。在阐述土地储备的涵义、起源及其在我国的产生与发展的基础上，分析了土地储备的运行机制与最终目标，归纳了我国土地储备的基本做法，首次提出了城市土地储备的直接储备模式和间接土地储备模式概念，并提出了地方政府构建城市土地储备模式的基本原则和具体操作思路。     

城市群演化的空间过程及土地利用优化配置

城市群演化包含了诸多内容 ,如人口、产业、城市类型、城市职能等 ,而空间过程是最直接、最综合的表现。     

21世纪黄河系统工程方略

该文指出 :王化云的治黄思想 ,“上拦下排、两岸分滞、蓄水拦沙、宽河固堤、除害兴利、综合利用” ,实际上是治理黄河的系统工程 ,2 1世纪应该继承和发展黄河系统工程的方略。黄河地处中国腹地 ,是中华民族的摇篮 ,当今高新科技的发展 ,足以从更大的范围 ,以全国的水资源、土资源为核心来考虑黄河的建设。统一计算水资源中的大气水、地表水、地下水、壤中水、生态水、环境水、生产水、生活水 ;统一计算土资源中的土壤资源、沙资源、沙石资源 ,真正按照地理系统工程来建设黄河。     

宁夏回族自治区土地沙漠化研究

该文分析土地沙漠化的形成是不合理的人类经济活动和恶劣的自然环境相互作用的结果。人类不仅是促进土地沙漠化发生发展的主要动因 ,同时也是沙漠化的受害者。只有采取合理的符合生态原则的治理活动 ,诸如一系列政策保护与技术防治相结合的措施 ,才能实现土地沙漠化逆转     

分布式侵蚀预报模型中网格面积的选定——以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例

在分布式土壤侵蚀过程模型中 ,承载数据以及进行运算的最小单元 ,即基本地块的选取是非常关键的 ,它直接关系到模型的模拟精度和运算数据量。目前大多数分布式模型都采用平均布设矩形网格的方法 ,这种方法在基本网格的大小选取上存在着盲目性和不统一性。本文以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区为例 ,利用GIS和SPSS分析了黄土高原丘陵沟壑区属性均一的基本地块在面积上的统计规律 ,给出了基本地块选取的合理依据 ,以促进建立更好的分布式模型