19802000北京市农业土地生产性的变动分析

根据1980、1990、2000年的统计资料和实地走访观察,本文分析了北京市乡镇一级的粮食作物、蔬菜作物和果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化。研究认为:1980年北京农业生产分布格局与土地生产性为比较典型的杜能模式;随着农业经营的多样化,1990年和2000年北京农业土地生产性呈现出多样的分布格局;北京粮食作物、蔬菜作物、果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化与此阶段的农业生产政策、农业以外的社会经济活动变化有较强的关联性;对北京以上问题的研究为验证杜能、辛克利亚、布莱昂特城市周边农业地域研究经典理论的演变提供了实证案例。     

Food Security of Shifting Cultivation Systems： Case Studies from Luang Prabang and Oudomxay Provinces, Lao PDR

Introduction The shifting cultivation system is one of the most important agricultural systems in Luang Prabang and Oudomxay provinces, where many production systems are found in the uplands. The factors, determining the systems, include ethnicity,Journal…     

西苕溪流域不同土地类型下氮元素输移过程

以西苕溪流域为研究对象,选择最有代表性的5种土地类型,模拟天然大暴雨,通过3次重复实验研究不同形态氮素随暴雨径流及径流沉积物的迁移过程,估算氮素在流域内不同土地利用/土地覆被条件下的损失率。研究结果表明,在相同的降雨条件下,氮素的流失速率和流失量随土地利用/土地覆被类型的不同表现出明显差异,地表径流水相总氮的流失量桑林最大,水田最小。水相不同形态的氮素流失量亦有所不同,悬浮颗粒态氮占地表径流水相总氮的70 %~90 %,水相溶解态氮的流失量以松林为最高,竹林、桑林和水田接近而且较低,不同类型的水相溶解态氮也随土地利用类型的不同表现出各自的特征。各土地类型单位面积、表层10 cm土壤氮素流失高达4.66~9.40 g·m-2,其中随径流沉积物相迁移的氮素占绝大部分(90 % 以上)。估算出的各土地利用类型总氮流失速率,地表径流水相为2.68~14.48 mg·m-2·min-1,径流沉积物相高达100.01~172.67 mg·m-2·min-1。     

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.     

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

太湖流域重污染区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响

通过对太湖流域重污染区1999年、2007年遥感影像数据解译结果的分析,获取了太湖流域重污染区主要土地利用类型的信息,分析了8 a来研究区内土地利用与覆被变化趋势,对区域土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值进行评估。结果表明,1999~2007年,太湖流域重污染区内耕地面积从2 033.53 km2减少到1 401.04 km2,而林地、建设用地、园地、水域总体呈增加的趋势,其中减少的耕地主要转化为建设用地。1999~2007年太湖流域重污染区的生态系统服务价值呈减少趋势,土地利用变化使研究区生态资产减少了2.40亿元,除气体调节和原材料以外,各单项服务功能的价值量均呈现递减的趋势。     

三江自然保护区耕地与湿地协调发展水平的评价研究

构建了衡量耕地—湿地协调发展的评价指标体系,并以三江自然保护区为例,采用综合指数法对耕地生产与湿地环境的协调发展水平进行了评价。结果表明:1954~2000年耕地生产与湿地环境比较协调,1995年协调度达最高点0.992,2000年二者综合发展水平达最高点0.389;2000~2005年协调度和综合发展水平开始出现大幅度下降,湿地开垦已经超过其临界规模,湿地面积的急速下降已威胁到区域的可持续发展。1995~2000年这段期间三江自然保护区耕地与湿地协调水平最高,此时耕地面积大约为2.6×10⁴ hm²,湿地面积大约为3.5×10⁴ hm²。此结果可以作为三江自然保护区湿地恢复重要的参考标准。在该标准下,通过改变传统农业发展模式和提高单产水平,三江自然保护区粮食可满足目前的需求,湿地重要的生态功能也可大大恢复。     

中国主要城市地价重心迁移及驱动因素研究

城市地价直接影响着城市的房地产市场和城市土地开发利用,从而影响城市的经济社会发展,及时掌握城市地价的发展规律,根据城市地价及时调整制定相关政策,是政府对土地市场进行调控的关键。利用重心模型,在测算和分析2000-2012年49个主要城市的综合地价重心位置及其变化规律的基础上,探讨了驱动中国城市地价重心迁移的因素。结果显示,中国主要城市地价重心始终位于区域几何中心的东南方向,但东西方向上的差异逐渐缩小,南北方向上的差异则逐渐扩大,地价重心迁移轨迹可以分为3个阶段和1个突变年。城市规模、经济发展水平、基础设施和城市区位等因素驱动着城市地价重心的迁移。     

城市用地功能精细化识别方法：时序动态图嵌入深度学习模型

多源大数据融合背景下的城市功能区识别是复杂非线性系统的模式识别问题,如何有效地从大规模的轨迹数据中提取出多粒度连续性时变和多尺度空间相互作用的信息是进行城市区域功能识别的关键。本研究设计实现了一种基于时序动态图嵌入的深度学习模型,在融合滴滴出行及兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）基础上,提取城市区域存在的时间和空间上的隐式特征,结合聚类分析实现城市用地功能的语义识别。结果表明,成都市中心的用地功能趋向复合多样化的发展,且用地属性随时间发生作用范围和用地类型的变化,呈现出功能随着城市群体活动而变化的时空规律。与相关文献的对比实验表明,本文提出方法在更细粒度的时间段下进行功能区识别,得到的同一类功能区域内集聚度更高,能够更好的捕获复合型区域在不同时间模式下呈现出的用地功能变化。本研究为城市用地功能识别研究提供了新的技术方法,为城市规划研究人员全面理解城区结构属性提供了有效手段,对推动城市空间得到更合理高效的利用具有一定的价值。     

中国土地荒漠化分类系统探讨

通过对前人研究土地荒漠化类型划分成果的学习消化并结合自己多年对土地荒漠化研究,提出我国土地荒漠化类型划分的原则和分类系统,以主导营力和表现形式为划分指标,不但将全国划分为流水作用、风力作用、化学作用和人为直接作用等4个类型,而且从不同类型中再细分出侵蚀劣地,侵蚀裸岩、裸土,堆积沙砾地,土壤劣化;风蚀劣地,风积半流动沙丘,风蚀裸地,土壤粗化、贫化;次生盐渍化、酸化、碱化地,三废污染,农药、化肥污染;废弃土、石、渣堆积,人工挖掘劣地等13个亚类,并对其分布、特征及形成等作了简要论述。