Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mount Rainier,Washington

Although much has been done to understand, quantify, and delineate volcanic hazards, there are fewer efforts to assess societal vulnerability to these hazards, particularly demographic differences in exposed populations or spatial variations in exposure to regional hazards. To better understand population diversity in volcanic hazard zones, we assess the number and types of people in a single type of hazard zone (lahars) for 27 communities downstream of Mount Rainier, Washington (USA). Using various socioeconomic and hazard datasets, we estimate that there are more than 78 000 residents, 59 000 employees, several dependent-population facilities (e.g., child-day-care centers, nursing homes) and numerous public venues (e.g., churches, hotels, museums) in a Mount Rainier lahar-hazard zone. We find that communities vary in the primary category of individuals in lahar-prone areas—exposed populations are dominated by residents in some communities (e.g., Auburn), employees in others (e.g., Tacoma), and tourists likely outnumber both of these groups in yet other areas (e.g., unincorporated Lewis County). Population exposure to potential lahar inundation varies considerably—some communities (e.g., Auburn) have large numbers of people but low percentages of them in hazard zones, whereas others (e.g., Orting) have fewer people but they comprise the majority of a community. A composite lahar-exposure index is developed to help emergency managers understand spatial variations in community exposure to lahars and results suggest that Puyallup has the highest combination of high numbers and percentages of people and assets in lahar-prone areas. Risk education and preparedness needs will vary based on who is threatened by future lahars, such as residents, employees, tourists at a public venue, or special-needs populations at a dependent-care facility. Emergency managers must first understand the people whom they are trying to prepare before they can expect these people to take protective measures after recognizing natural cues or receiving an official lahar warning.     

Interpreting flash flood palaeoflow parameters from antidunes and gravel lenses: An example from Montserrat,West Indies

The wavelength of stationary water‐surface waves and their associated antidune bedforms are related to the mean velocity and depth of formative flow. In past published sand‐bed flume experiments, it was found that lens structures were preserved during antidune growth and change, and the dimension of the lenses was empirically related to antidune wavelength, and thus could be used to estimate flow velocity and depth. This study is the first to compare observations of formative flow conditions and resulting sedimentary structures in a natural setting, testing the previously published relationship at a field‐scale. Trains of stationary and upstream migrating water‐surface waves were prevalent during the flash flood in October 2012 in the Belham Valley, Montserrat, West Indies. Wave positions and wavelengths were assessed at 900 sec intervals through the daylight hours of the event within a monitored reach. The wave data indicate flow depths up to 1·3 m and velocity up to 3·6 m sec^?1. Sedimentary structures formed by antidune growth and change were preserved in the event deposit. These structures include lenses of clast‐supported gravel and massive sand, with varying internal architecture. The lenses and associated low‐angle strata are comparable to sand‐bed structures formed from stationary and upstream migrating waves in flume experiments, confirming the diagnostic value of these structures. Using mean lens length in the event deposit underestimated peak flow conditions during the flood and implied that the lenses were preserved during waning flow.     

长白山火山1000年前火山泥流堆积及其灾害

长白山火山１０００年前大喷发,火山泥流堆积物沿松花江中上游分布。距火山较近的是火山泥流的岩屑流堆积,远离火山变为火山泥流的超高密度流堆积。探讨了火山泥流的成因,并指出长白山火山一旦再次爆发,火山泥流将是主要的火山灾害,沿松花江中上游可能造成巨大破坏,并可能危及鸭绿江、图们江中、上游。     

当代火山喷发碎屑堆积物的研究进展及其主要类型

火山喷发碎屑堆积物主要分为：火山喷发空中降落堆积物、火山碎屑、流状堆积物、火山泥流堆积物和火山基浪堆积物。简述了这些火山碎屑堆积物的成因及主要特征。     

Catastrophic precipitation‐triggered lahar at Casita volcano,Nicaragua: occurrence,bulking and transformation

A catastrophic lahar began on 30 October 1998, as hurricane precipitation triggered a small ?ank collapse of Casita volcano, a complex and probably dormant stratovolcano. The initial rockslide‐debris avalanche evolved on the ?ank to yield a watery debris ?ood with a sediment concentration less than 60 per cent by volume at the base of the volcano. Within 2·5 km, however, the watery ?ow entrained (bulked) enough sediment to transform entirely to a debris ?ow. The debris ?ow, 6 km downstream and 1·2 km wide and 3 to 6 m deep, killed 2500 people, nearly the entire populations of the communities of El Porvenir and Rolando Rodriguez. These ‘new towns’ were developed in a prehistoric lahar pathway: at least three ?ows of similar size since 8330 ¹⁴C years bp are documented by stratigraphy in the same 30‐degree sector. Travel time between perception of the ?ow and destruction of the towns was only 2·5–3·0 minutes. The evolution of the ?ow wave occurred with hydraulic continuity and without pause or any extraordinary addition of water. The precipitation trigger of the Casita lahar emphasizes the need, in volcano hazard assessments, for including the potential for non‐eruption‐related collapse lahars with the more predictable potential of their syneruption analogues. The ?ow behaviour emphasizes that volcano collapses can yield not only volcanic debris avalanches with restricted runouts, but also mobile lahars that enlarge by bulking as they ?ow. Volumes and hence inundation areas of collapse‐runout lahars can increase greatly beyond their sources: the volume of the Casita lahar bulked to at least 2·6 times the contributing volume of the ?ank collapse and 4·2 times that of the debris ?ood. At least 78 per cent of the debris ?ow matrix (sediment < ?1·0Φ; 2 mm) was entrained during ?ow. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its ~10 km² glacier cap, (ii) its 117–147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of ~70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy–Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025–0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000–1400 m/s²). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2–3, 3–4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50–400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy–Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars.     

Multi-decadal changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris-flow occurrences in response to gully evolution after the 1990–1995 Mount Unzen eruptions

Explosive volcanic eruptions can cause long-term landscape change, leading to increased sediment discharge that continues after the cessation of the eruptions. During the period 1990–1995, eruptions of Mount Unzen, Japan, generated large amounts of pyroclastic material, resulting in 57 debris-flow events during 1991–2018. To investigate changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris-flow occurrence, we conducted the following: geometric analysis of two gullies (i.e., debris-flow initiation zones) using LiDAR (light detection and ranging)-generated 1 m DEMs (digital elevation models); rainfall analysis, based on the relationship between rainfall duration and mean intensity (i.e., considering the intensity–duration, or ID, threshold); and debris-flow monitoring during 2016–2018. Since 1991, rainfall runoff has caused erosion of the supplied pyroclastic material, generating a channel network consisting of incised gullies. With sufficient rainfall, debris flows formed, accompanied by further gully erosion; this resulted in both vertical and lateral adjustments of the cross-sectional geometry. In the two decades since the eruptions ceased, readily mobilized pyroclastic material has become scarce as the gullies have adjusted to local hydrographic conditions. At the same time, the infiltration capacity of the volcanic flank has increased, reducing the capacity for overland flow. As a result, since 2000, rainfall events with intensities above the ID threshold have occurred; however, the lack of sediment supplied by the gullies appears to have hindered the occurrence and development of debris flows. This suggests that debris flows in volcanically perturbed landscapes may occur at lower rainfall thresholds as long as the corresponding upland channels are evolving as a result of intense overland flow. However, as such channels evolve towards equilibrium geometries, the frequency of debris flows decreases in response to the reduction in sediment availability.     

Analysing the relation between rainfall characteristics and lahar activity at Mount Pinatubo,Philippines

The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 altered the conditions of the surrounding river catchments. Pyroclastic flows and tephra fall were deposited over extensive areas, stripping off the forest cover and burying drainage divides. These recent deposits are very loosely consolidated and generally consist of sand‐sized particles, which commonly mobilize into lahars in response to rainfall of a certain magnitude. Several devastating lahar occurrences have buried settlements covering tens to several hundred square kilometres in a single event. Correlation of storm rainfall intensities and durations with lahar activity as recorded by acoustic flow monitors is used to investigate trends in the initiation conditions for lahar activity. This research confirms that the relationships of rainfall intensity and duration with lahar initiation threshold values are not linear but rather approximate a power relation. Different relations were found for lahar initiation in different years, from 1991 to 1997, as a result of the dynamic changes in hydrologic and geomorphic conditions of the affected catchments. Data from acoustic flow monitors are used to distinguish debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow activity from that of muddy water. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Quaternary glacial sequence in Ecuador: a reinterpretation of the work of Walter Sauer

The Quaternary glacial sequence proposed for the Ecuadorian Andes by Walter Sauer is critically reviewed. Examination of his field evidence at sections exposing Quaternary sediments east of Quito has led to a fundamental reinterpretation. Deposits which Sauer considered as glacial, glacio-fluvial, glacio-lacustrine and pluvio-glacial in origin appear to have been formed mainly by volcanic, volcano-loessic, laharic, fluvial, colluvial and pedogenic processes.     

Seismic characterization of hyperconcentrated flows in a volcanic environment

We present direct observations and monitoring data of a hyperconcentrated flow that occurred along La Lumbre ravine, one of the most active channels of Volcán de Colima in Mexico. Flow properties were inferred from video images and seismic data recorded by a geophone installed outside the channel. We collected flow samples 400 m upstream from the monitoring station and analyzed the variation of sediment concentration and grain‐size distribution over time. A joint analysis of hydrological (i.e. flow velocity, wetted perimeter) and rheological (i.e. yield stress τ_y and dynamic viscosity μ_m ) parameters was performed to characterize the flow. Different flow regimes and sediment transport processes were identified and analyzed in comparison with both the amplitude and spectral features of the seismic signal. We observed differing sediment concentrations at the same discharge, suggesting a decoupling between sediment transport processes and discharge for low‐magnitude flows. A straightforward correlation was found between the amplitude of the seismic signal and the sediment concentration, and a value of 1.8 × 10^?3 mm/s was identified that can be used as a threshold to recognize the hyperconcentrated phase of the flow. This information was tested on the complete seismic dataset gathered at La Lumbre ravine during the 2015 rainy season. We identified the transition from streamflow to hyperconcentrated flow (and/or vice versa) in 16 low‐magnitude events and we validated this result using the video recordings. The correlation between seismic amplitude and sediment concentration is valid at La Lumbre ravine but would need to be tested in other locations for the development of automatic flow classification methods. This work contributes to standardized seismic methods for characterizing flow processes in volcanic environments, also for the development of lahar early warning systems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.