1998～2001年国家授时中心(NTSC)铯原子钟运转情况

主要介绍了用于保持中国科学院国家授时中心 (原陕西天文台 )时间尺度的 6台铯原子钟 (代号分别为 :Cs0 7、Cs0 8、Cs1 1、Cs1 6、Cs1 7、Cs1 8)的运行情况。 6台铯原子钟自 1 997年下半年正式给BIPM (国际权度局 )提供数据 ,参加国际原子时(TAI)计算至今已达 5年之久 ,在此期间 ,除Cs1 8因铯束管故障在 1 999年返回美国检修外 ,其它 5台钟运行情况良好。详细介绍、分析每台钟在 1 998～ 2 0 0 1年期间的整体特性、不同采样间隔下的稳定度比较、速率漂移以及它们在TAI系统中的取权情况。通过分析比较 ,使我们对每台钟的运行情况作出恰如其分的评价 ,以便更好地利用国家授时中心的钟资源 ,做好守时和授时工作。     

A Simple Approach to Account for Radial Flow and Boundary Conditions When Kriging Hydraulic Head Fields for Confined Aquifers

The estimation and mapping of realistic hydraulic head fields, hence of flow paths, is a major goal of many hydrogeological studies. The most widely used method to obtain reliable head fields is the inverse approach. This approach relies on the numerical approximation of the flow equation and requires specifying boundary conditions and the transmissivity of each grid element. Boundary conditions are often unknown or poorly known, yet they impose a strong signature on the head fields obtained by inverse analysis. A simpler alternative to the inverse approach is the direct kriging of the head field using the measurements obtained at observation wells. The kriging must be modified to incorporate the available information. Use of the dual kriging formalism enables simultaneously estimating the head field, the aquifer mean transmissivity, and the regional hydraulic gradient from head data in steady or transient state conditions. In transient state conditions, an estimate of the storage coefficient can be obtained. We test the approach on simple analytical cases, on synthetic cases with solutions obtained numerically using a finite element flow simulator, and on a real aquifer. For homogeneous aquifers, infinite or bounded, the kriging estimate retrieves the exact solution of the head field, the exact hydrogeological parameters and the flow net. With heterogeneous aquifers, kriging accurately estimates the head field with prediction errors of the same magnitude as typical head measurement errors. The transmissivities are also accurately estimated by kriging. Moreover, if inversion is required, the kriged head along boundaries can be used as realistic boundary conditions for flow simulation.     

基于证据权的矿山地质环境定量评价

由于地质条件的复杂和地理区域的差异,我国的矿山地质环境问题较为突出,矿山地质环境评价工作至今还没有形成成熟和普遍适用的体系。通过证据权的评价研究,建立基于证据权的矿山地质环境定量评价模型,探索了矿山地质环境定量评价方法。结合具体实例,利用WorldView-Ⅱ数据对北京市房山、门头沟重点矿集区中的部分工作区进行矿山地质环境定量评价,针对评价结果提出了相应的治理建议。     

基于权重反分析和功效系数法的地下储油洞库围岩分类模型及应用研究

选取岩石抗压强度、完整系数、结构面状态、地下水发育情况、洞轴线与软弱结构面的夹角作为地下储油库工程围岩稳定性的评价因素,并采用权重反分析的方法确定各指标的权重,建立了基于权重反分析方法和功效系数法的洞库围岩稳定性评价模型。最后,将建立的围岩分类模型应用于实际工程,通过与实际开挖结果对比表明,模型判别结果与实际开挖揭露围岩类别相吻合,证明了该方法用于地下储油洞库围岩分类的合理性和有效性,为地下储油洞库围岩稳定性判别提供了一种新思路。     

广西41年干旱灾害的模糊综合评价与预测

以广西1950年至1991年干旱灾害的旱情为数据,选取适当的评价指标,用信息熵确定客观权重、层次分析法确定主观权重,用最小信息熵原理确定组合权重,经过加权求和得出干旱灾害的模糊综合评价,进而对41个评价对象进行排序。同时,建立了基于改进的灰色GM（1,1）的时间响应式的灾变年份预测模型,为提高预测精度,对原始数据进行了7次方根变换,进行灾变年预测,准确率达80％。其结果能很好的检测预测模型,反映干旱灾害的实际情况,收到较好的效果。     

生物和非生物因子对秋季海州湾长蛇鲻栖息地适宜性的影响

根据2011年和2013−2018年秋季在海州湾及邻近海域进行的底拖网调查数据,结合同步采集的底层水温、底层盐度、水深、资源密度、饵料生物等生物和非生物因子数据,开展长蛇鲻(Saurida elongata)栖息地适宜性的相关研究。利用提升回归树(Boosted Regression Tree, BRT)模型确定各环境因子的权重,分别采用算术平均法和几何平均法建立栖息地适宜性指数(Habitat Suitability Index, HSI)模型,并通过交叉验证确定最优模型。结果表明：海州湾长蛇鲻在秋季最适宜栖息的底层水温范围为17.5～18℃,最适底层盐度范围为31.3～32.0,最适水深范围为24～37 m;选择其3种主要饵料生物作为生物因子,即枪乌贼(Loligo spp.)、戴氏赤虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)和六丝钝尾鰕虎鱼(Amblychaeturichthys hexanema),与底层水温、底层盐度和水深共同作为影响因子建立HSI模型。结果显示,对长蛇鲻空间分布总偏差贡献率最高的是饵料因子,其次是水深和底层水温。通过交叉验证发现,运用算术平均算法,且赋予权重的HSI模型具有较低的赤池信息准则值(Akaike Information Criterion, AIC)。研究发现,海州湾秋季长蛇鲻的最适栖息地(HSI≥0.7)主要分布在34.5°～36°N,119°～121°E之间,其中35°～36°N海域的最适栖息地分布范围大,而且从近岸至远海,HSI指数有增加的趋势。     

Bootstrapped models for intrinsic random functions

Use of intrinsic random function stochastic models as a basis for estimation in geostatistical work requires the identification of the generalized covariance function of the underlying process. The fact that this function has to be estimated from data introduces an additional source of error into predictions based on the model. This paper develops the sample reuse procedure called the bootstrap in the context of intrinsic random functions to obtain realistic estimates of these errors. Simulation results support the conclusion that bootstrap distributions of functionals of the process, as well as their kriging variance, provide a reasonable picture of variability introduced by imperfect estimation of the generalized covariance function.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

A sensitivity analysis for universal kriging

Universal kriging is an interpolation method for producing contour maps from irregularly spaced sample points, taking into account the trend (or polynomial drift), which is of known form. It assumes a known covariance model to express correlation of points a short distance apart. A sensitivity analysis examines how the fitted surface will change for given perturbations in the covariance model. We develop a simple approximate analysis in preference to exact analysis and show that it is adequate for small perturbations. For large data sets, a dramatic reduction in computer time is possible using approximate analysis. Possible extensions of this work are noted.     

Application of fuzzy clustering and fuzzy classification to evaluate the provenance of glacial till

To evaluate the provenance of glacial till, the trace element content of magnetite was used. Magnetite was present in all known rock types and all till samples in the area investigated. By using fuzzy-set theory it was possible to group samples of magnetite taken from bedrock into relatively homogeneous and geologically meaningful groups and also, by fuzzy classification, to relate the till samples to the rocks in such a way that the relative contribution of each rock type to the till is estimated. Each rock and till sample is assigned a membership value between 0 and 1 for each rock type. The membership values, for a certain rock type in the till, are then interpolated by kriging onto maps. Magnetites from skarns associated with sulfide ores especially are rather distinct, and so a map of such membership values for till unveils all known ore deposits some 1–5 km downstreamin the general direction of the ice flow. Other anomalies show up which cannot be related to hitherto known ores or mineralizations.     

Variography of submarine morphology: Problems of deregularization, and cartographical implications

During the German Antarctic Expedition VI (leg 3, December 1987 to March 1988), bathymetric surveys were made in the Weddell Sea by the SEABEAM sonar system. For the first time geostatistical methods were applied in the SEABEAM-postprocessing. The investigations of variography that were necessary prior to the cartographical-geomorphological evaluation shed new light on classical geostatistical concerns. SEABEAM data provide a good example of a mean square, differentiable regionalized variable, where data are sampled over a two-dimensional support due to the technique of the sonar device. By deregularizations of the sample variograms, spatial continuity can be shown to be a property of seafloor depth as well as a point variable. The results are discussed in a sedimentological context. As an application of the regional variogram analyses, large-scale kriged bathymetric maps are presented.