因子克里格分析支持的重金属元素空间多尺度变化特征——以北部湾东北部海域为例

将因子克里格分析方法应用于海底沉积物重金属元素空间多尺度变化的研究中,分析了北部湾东北部表层沉积物中7种重金属元素,Ni、Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、As和Cd的空间多尺度结构特征,识别并分离了重金属元素不同尺度的空间变化,并探讨了各个尺度上重金属的物源及控制因素。结果显示,研究区重金属存在块金效应、变程为30km的球状结构(短变程尺度)和变程为140km的球状结构(长变程尺度)等三种尺度的空间结构,并拟合了研究区7种重金属元素的线性协同区域化模型。短变程尺度上,7种重金属元素的空间分布表现为"点状"或"条带状"的局部尺度的空间变化特征;长变程尺度上,7种重金属元素的空间分布反映出"片状"的区域尺度的空间变化特征。局部尺度上,Zn、Cr、Ni、Cu、Pb和Cd等元素主要源于海南岛、雷州半岛、广西大陆等陆地母岩物质,其空间分布特征受到了沉积物粒度的控制作用;而As主要受到海南岛、雷州半岛的人为污染成分的影响。区域尺度上,Zn、Cr、Ni和Cu主要来源于雷州半岛、海南岛的母岩物质,其次为广西大陆;As主要来源于海南岛的母岩物质,其次为雷州半岛、广西大陆。这些重金属元素在北部湾终年逆时针大环流的控制下,进行搬运、迁移并沉积在"汇聚中心",形成了研究区重金属元素区域尺度上NWW-NNW向的分布格局;而As不同于其他元素的亲陆的NNW向分布特征,主要源于其不同的地球化学行为。     

菏泽市紫外线辐射变化特征及月预报方程

利用2008年4月至2012年12月菏泽市紫外线观测资料以及地面常规气象观测资料和空气质量资料,分析了该地区太阳紫外线辐射的变化特征及其与各因子的相关关系,并建立逐月预报方程。结果表明:菏泽紫外线辐射年总量达到187.98 W/m2,春夏两季明显高于秋冬两季,5月达到全年的最大值,1月为全年的最小值;3~9月紫外线辐射极大值均可达到5级,其他月份均可达到4级。不同天气条件下紫外线辐射强度存在明显差异,其中晴天紫外线辐射强且稳定,呈抛物线变化;多云天紫外线辐射波动较大,时强时弱;阴天紫外线辐射相对较弱。紫外线辐射强度与风速、能见度、气温呈正相关,与总云量、低云量、相对湿度呈负相关,与SO2、PM10、NO2、PM2.5多呈负相关。基于多元线性回归分析向后剔除变量方法得出的逐月预报方程,经检验总体预报效果较好,对当地紫外线等级预报工作具有参考意义。     

Internal solitary waves shoaling onto a shelf: Comparisons of weakly-nonlinear and fully nonlinear models for hyperbolic-tangent stratifications

In this study the evolution of internal solitary waves shoaling onto a shelf is considered. The results of high resolution two-dimensional numerical simulations of the incompressible Euler equations are compared with the predictions of several weakly-nonlinear shoaling models of the Korteweg–de Vries family including the Gardner equation and the cubic regularized long wave (or Benjamin–Bona–Mahoney) equation. Wave models in both physical x–t space and in s–x space are considered where s is a commonly used characteristic time variable. The effects of rotation, background currents and damping are ignored. The Boussinesq and rigid lid approximations are also used. The shoaling internal solitary waves generally fission into several waves. Reflected waves are negligible in the cases considered here. Several hyperbolic tangent stratifications are considered with and without a critical point. Among the equations in x–t space the cubic regularized long wave equation gives the best predictions. The Gardner equation in s–x space gives the best predictions of the shape of the leading waves on the shelf, but for many stratifications it predicts a propagation speed that is too large.     

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裂缝诱导双相HTI介质模型及其弹性波传播方程

将Biot双相介质理论与Gurevich裂缝各向异性理论相结合,建立了能够同时考虑实际裂缝性储层孔隙性和各向异性的裂缝诱导双相HTI介质模型。从本构方程、动力学方程和动力学达西定律出发,推导出了裂缝诱导双相HTI介质中弹性波传播的一阶速度-应力方程,并针对方程的刚性问题,给出了利用显式二阶时间积分法数值求解该方程时所需要满足的稳定性条件。该方程能够定量地给出双相HTI介质的波场特征与裂缝参数、背景孔隙介质参数之间的关系,描述弹性波在这种介质中的传播机理。     

测距定位方程非线性平差的封闭牛顿迭代公式

测距方程;非线性强度;最小二乘;高斯-牛顿法;牛顿法;病态方程     

Bayesian area-to-point kriging using expert knowledge as informative priors

Area-to-point (ATP) kriging is a common geostatistical framework to address the problem of spatial disaggregation or downscaling from block support observations (BSO) to point support (PoS) predictions for continuous variables. This approach requires that the PoS variogram is known. Without PoS observations, the parameters of the PoS variogram cannot be deterministically estimated from BSO, and as a result, the PoS variogram parameters are uncertain. In this research, we used Bayesian ATP conditional simulation to estimate the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge and BSO, and quantify uncertainty of the PoS variogram parameters and disaggregation outcomes. We first clarified that the nugget parameter of the PoS variogram cannot be estimated from only BSO. Next, we used statistical expert elicitation techniques to elicit the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge. These were used as informative priors in a Bayesian inference of the PoS variogram from BSO and implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. ATP conditional simulation was done to obtain stochastic simulations at point support. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) atmospheric temperature profile data were used in an illustrative example. The outcomes from the Bayesian ATP inference for the Matérn variogram model parameters confirmed that the posterior distribution of the nugget parameter was effectively the same as its prior distribution; for the other parameters, the uncertainty was substantially decreased when BSO were introduced to the Bayesian ATP estimator. This confirmed that expert knowledge brought new information to infer the nugget effect at PoS while BSO only brought new information to infer the other parameters. Bayesian ATP conditional simulations provided a satisfactory way to quantify parameters and model uncertainty propagation through spatial disaggregation.     

Statistical data fusion of multi-sensor AOD over the Continental United States

This article illustrates two techniques for merging daily aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from satellite and ground-based data sources to achieve optimal data quality and spatial coverage. The first technique is a traditional Universal Kriging (UK) approach employed to predict AOD from multi-sensor aerosol products that are aggregated on a reference grid with AERONET as ground truth. The second technique is spatial statistical data fusion (SSDF); a method designed for massive satellite data interpolation. Traditional kriging has computational complexity O(N³), making it impractical for large datasets. Our version of UK accommodates massive data inputs by performing kriging locally, while SSDF accommodates massive data inputs by modelling their covariance structure with a low-rank linear model. In this study, we use aerosol data products from two satellite instruments: the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer and the geostationary operational environmental satellite, covering the Continental United States.     

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The tripole: A new coherent vortex structure of incompressible two-dimensional flows

Abstract

Using a contour dynamical algorithm, we have found rotating tripolar V-state solutions for the inviscid Euler equations in two-dimensions. We have studied their geometry as a function of their physical parameters. Their stability was investigated with the aid of contour surgery, and most of the states were found to be stable. Under finite-amplitude perturbations, tripoles are shown to either fission into two asymmetric dipoles or to evolve into a shielded axisymmetric vortex, demonstrating the existence of two new ‘‘reversible transitions'’ between topologically distinct coherent vortex structures. These dynamical results are confirmed by pseudo-spectral simulations, with which we also show how continuous tripolar long-lived coherent vortex structures can be generated in a variety of ways.