时态关联规则挖掘综述

对时态关联规则挖掘的现有方法进行了总结,对这些方法的优劣做出自己的评价.     

Volcanic hazard assessment incorporating expert knowledge: Application to the yucca mountain region, Nevada, USA

Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. A certain amount of expert knowledge is needed to interpret the geological data used in a probabilistic data analysis. As may be the situation in science, experts disagree on crucial points. Consequently, lack of consensus in some studies is a sure outcome. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameterp is incorporated into the prior distribution, π(p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π(p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, ..., etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruptionp eventually will be averaged out by taking the expectation over π(p). We use the following priors in the analysis: (1) priors selected for mathematical convenience: Beta (r,s) for (r,s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1),(2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1);and (2) three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Our study concludes that estimated values of hazard based on the priors selected for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8, 2), yields the highest hazard (=2.97 × 10^-2 . The minimum hazard is produced by the “three-expert prior” (i.e., values of p are equally likely for p = 10^-3, 10^-2,and 10^-1 . The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 × 10^-3, which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, “hazard, ” is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years.     

从知识管理到知识经营--日本知识管理研究发展现状

介绍了日本近年来知识管理研究发展现状,重点介绍了野中郁次郎等人的相关成果.为我国知识管理研究提供参考.     

基于Petri网的BPEL4WS模型的分析

描述了Web服务业务流程执行语言（BPEL4WS）的Petri网模型，并提出了模型的化简规则，用于验证模型中的死锁和乏同步两种结构冲突。最后结合一个业务过程实例，进行建模和化简。     

知识管理与企业的网上学习系统

充分利用知识管理工具可以管理和组织好现有知识,并且有利于学习者之间知识共享以及知识创新.首先介绍了知识及知识管理的基础知识,然后对网上学习系统的有关知识及技术做了概述,最后从学习系统的角度说明了二者的关系,指出网上学习不仅是企业员工培训的变革,也是企业实施知识管理的重要途径.     

SYSTEM FOR AUTOMATIC GENERALIZATION OF TOPOGRAPHIC MAPS

1INTRODUCTION Map generalization may be defined as a procedure that generatessmallerscalemapsfromlargerscaleonesusing variousappropriateoperations (e.g.selection,combina- tion, displacement, simplification, etc.) under definite conditions (includingmap scale, purpose, etc.). The au- tomation of the generalization process has been a dream of cartographers for decades. For it is an indispensable wayto construct map databases from large-scale maps to small-scale ones, which can decrease repet…     

The ‘co’ in co-production of climate action: Challenging boundaries within and between science,policy and practice

Effective action taken against climate change must find ways to unite scientific and practice-based knowledges associated with the various stakeholders who see themselves as invested in the global delivery of climate governance. Political decision-makers, climate scientists and practitioners approach this challenge from what are often radically different perspectives and experiences. While considerable work has been done to develop the idea of ‘co-production’ in the development of climate action outputs, questions remain over how to best unite the contrasting epistemological traditions and norms associated with different stakeholders. Drawing on the existing literatures on climate action co-production and from translational perspectives on the science-policy interface, in this paper we develop the concept of ‘boundary agency’. Defining this as the agency ‘possessed’ when willing and able to translate between different epistemological communities invested in a similar policy and governance challenge such as climate change, we offer it as a useful means to reflect on participants’ understanding of the ‘co’ in co-production. This is in contrast to the more established (often academic-led) focus on what it is that is being produced by co-production processes. We draw from two complementary empirical studies, which explicitly encouraged i) engagement and ii) reflection on cross-boundary co-production between climate action stakeholders from different backgrounds. Reflecting on the two studies, we discuss the benefits of (and barriers to) encouraging more active and sustained engagement between climate action stakeholders so as to try to actively blur the boundaries between science and policy and, in doing so, invent new epistemological communities of practice.     

空间知识网格体系架构及其实现技术探讨

空间知识网格是以网格GIS的基础设施、空间数据网格、空间信息网格(狭义)为基础,运用基本的网格服务建立的智能、高效、协作的决策支持平台。空间知识网格具有以服务为核心、基于开放的技术标准和协议、智能化的知识挖掘过程和完整的结构体系等特点,主要完成空间知识的管理与分析应用,如空间数据管理与操作、空间分析与计算、地图编制和遥感图像处理等。本文系统论述了空间知识网格的体系结构,并以实例阐述了空间知识网格的实现流程及其关键技术。     

智能化专题地图表示方法选择的研究

首先阐述了专题地图表示方法选择的知识,包括十种常用表示方法的描述、影响表示方法选择的因素、表示方法选择之间的配合原则,提出了选择专题地图表示方法的新规则,总结了表示方法间搭配的可能性;接着介绍了知识工程中知识模型的基本概念,在此基础上,建立了专题地图表示方法选择的知识模型并利用关系数据库的理论与方法对其进行了模拟;最后基于WebService开发了试验系统并举例说明了问题。     

波普尔科学哲学理论简介

波普尔是当今伟大的哲学家,他发明了科学增长的四段图式:P1→TT→EE→P2,其中P1代表问题,TT表示试探性理论,EE表示试探性排除错误,P2代表新的问题。波普尔对科学哲学有很多贡献,如他否定了培根的归纳法,主张证伪的方法而反对证实的方法。他颠覆了关于真理的概念,反对将理论与真理联系起来,即使是相对真理。他认为,人不能认识真理,只能探索真理,接近真理,并提出"逼真性"与"逼真度"两个概念,从而否定了相对真理与绝对真理这一对矛盾的关系。他提出,科学理论的发展不是一个量变递增的过程,而是新理论取代旧理论的质变过程,是新范式战胜旧范式的科学革命。他认为,可证伪性、可错性是科学的本质特征,同时也是区分科学与非科学的根本标准。传统的认识论将宇宙划分为物质的与精神的两个世界,波普尔认为宇宙是多元的,多层次进化的,其性质是多样的,可分为三个层次或三个世界。波普尔的三个世界理论,用最简洁的语言表述即:物理世界(世界1)、精神世界(世界2)和客观知识世界(世界3)。世界3是人类智力活动的产物,是人造的;另一方面,它同时也是超人类的,即超越了自己的创造者。波普尔石破天惊地提出了科学哲学的许多惊世骇俗的理论,将科学哲学推到了一个崭新的高度,打破了科学界传统的认识论和方法论。他的哲学理论的核心是证伪主义,证伪就是试错,反驳,批判。只有经过证伪的理论(猜测,假说)才能称之为理论。中国科学需要波普尔理论,中国科学上不去,与我们没有证伪思想有很大的关系。我们必须拨乱反正,改弦易辙,采取批判的态度,反驳的方法,敢于试错,这样,中国科学才有希望。