Complex movement patterns by foraging loggerhead sea turtles outside the breeding season identified using Argos‐linked Fastloc‐Global Positioning System

We used Argos‐linked Fastloc‐Global Positioning System (Argos‐linked Fastloc‐GPS) satellite tags to investigate how loggerhead sea turtles use neritic foraging habitats at multiple scales. Out of 24 turtles, six individuals used more than one foraging site, with all sites being separated by >25 km. These six individuals used up to four sites, remaining at each site for a mean of 150 days and returning to the same site a minimum of 52 days later. The other 18 turtles remained in a single site. The area within sites was not used uniformly, with 15 out of 24 turtles exhibiting complex movement patterns within and amongst up to five focal patches, which were typically 0.1–5.0 km apart within a single site. Movements between sites and patches might sometimes have reflected overwintering behaviour; however, similar movement patterns occurred at multiple times of the year, suggesting other factors were also involved. Use of multiple sites and patches might be driven by differences in resource availability, such as food and/or night‐time refuges, competition, or exploratory movement to investigate or locate alternative patches. We confirmed competition via direct visual observations of aggressive interactions between individuals at one foraging patch. Our results illustrate the importance of standardizing data to the same number of locations per day and night to accurately delineate key areas used by turtles or for evidence‐based marine protected area planning.     

A Maximum-Entropy Method for Estimating the Spectrum

Based on the maximum-entropy(ME)principle,a new power spectral estimator for random waves is derived in the form of S～(ω)=a/8H~2(2π)~(d 1)ω~-~((d 2))exp[-b(2π/ω)~n],by solving a variational problem subject to some quite general constraints.This robust method is comprehensive enough to describe the wave spectra even in extreme wave conditions and is superior to periodogram method that is not suitable to process comparatively short or intensively unsteady signals for its tremendous boundary effect and some inherent defects of FFT.Fortunately,the newly derived method for spectral estimation works fairly well,even though the sample data sets are very short and unsteady,and the reliability and efficiency of this spectral estimator have been preliminarily proved.     

基于ARMA模型的BDS卫星钟差异常值探测及其短期预报

星载原子钟在运行过程中会受到恶劣空间环境与设备老化等因素的影响,使得卫星钟差数据中经常存在异常值,其中AO(additive outlier)类异常值是钟差序列中常见的一类异常值.结合最大期望算法与自回归滑动平均(autoregressive moving average, ARMA)模型,提出一种AO类异常值探测算法...     

Statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility curves

This paper describes statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility functions. Although fragility curves abound in earthquake engineering and risk assessment literature, the focus has generally been on the methods for obtaining the damage data (i.e., the analysis of structures), and little emphasis is placed on the process for fitting fragility curves to this data. This paper provides a synthesis of the most commonly used methods for fitting fragility curves and highlights some of their significant limitations. More novel methods are described for parametric fragility curve development (generalized linear models and cumulative link models) and non‐parametric curves (generalized additive model and Gaussian kernel smoothing). An extensive discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each method is provided, as well as examples using both empirical and analytical data. The paper further proposes methods for treating the uncertainty in intensity measure, an issue common with empirical data. Finally, the paper describes approaches for choosing among various fragility models, based on an evaluation of prediction error for a user‐defined loss function. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

无网格数值方法在结构物水动力研究中的应用

运用一种移动粒子半隐式法建立无网格水流数值模型,探讨该模型在结构物水动力特性研究中的可能性。在无网格条件下,粒子间的相互作用通过核子函数来表示,并通过建立物理量光滑模型、梯度模型和二阶导数模型来离散控制方程。流体的不可压缩性是通过引入粒子数密度概念实现的。该方法不受流体变形程度和固边界形状的限制,因而具有特定的适应性。运用该模型模拟了水柱倒塌后有无透空块体两种情况下右端直墙上的压力过程。计算结果表明透空块体可使直墙压力减小42%。     

广东省乡村休闲旅游地空间分布格局及影响因素北大核心CSCD

以广东文化和旅游厅发布的650个乡村休闲旅游地为研究对象,借助GIS空间分析及数理统计分析,探讨了广东省乡村休闲旅游地的空间分布格局及影响因素。研究表明:1)广东省乡村休闲旅游地在空间上呈现显著的集聚特征,整体表现为“两条轴带,多个增长极”的分布模式,且各邻域乡村休闲旅游地之间具有明显的空间依赖性。2)整体乡村休闲旅游地特征空间尺度为118.36 km,各类型乡村休闲旅游地特征空间尺度表现出一定差异,具有明显的尺度依赖性,其中历史遗存类区位布局的空间范围最大;其次是民俗文化类和聚落建筑类,两者较为接近,但前者的集聚强度高于后者;自然景观类和产业融合类受自身数量及资源禀赋等因素制约,空间分布的范围相对较小。同时,随着空间距离的增大,各类型乡村休闲旅游地集聚程度均表现为“先增大后减小”的趋势。3)资源禀赋、交通可达、景区辐射作为供给因素,是广东省乡村休闲旅游地布局发展的基础;人口经济、客源市场作为需求因素,是影响布局的关键;政策支持、发展规划是管理因素,为布局发展提供重要保障;创新因素驱动乡村休闲旅游的转型与升级。供给、需求、管理、创新4个维度共同调节,影响乡村休闲旅游空间格局的形成。     

“Krige”空间内插技术在地理学中的应用

称为“Krige”技术的内插稀疏观测资料的随机方法是Matheron(1970年)提出的,D.R.Krige首先将这一方法应用于找矿上,因而命名于“Krige”技术。本文首先定义和说明了空间协方差曲线,基于无偏估计和最优原理导出了“Krige”内插权重系数的代数方程组,最后给出实例说明该方法如何应用到地理学和水文学中。     

响应变量随机缺失下部分线性单指标模型的非参数判别检验

研究了响应变量随机缺失情况下部分线性单指标模型的非参数部分检验问题,检验非参数部分预测变量同响应变量之间是否存在非线性关系.用参数和非参数函数的借补估计对缺失响应变量进行插值,并基于借补估计构造了广义似然比检验统计量,证明了其渐近分布性质.     

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China

The magnitude, occurrence rate and occurrence timing of floods in the Poyang Lake basin were analysed. The flood series were acquired by annual and seasonal maximum flow (AMF) sampling and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling. Nonstationarity and uncertainty were analysed using kernel density estimation and the bootstrap resampling methods. Using the relationships between flood indices and climate indices, i.e. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the potential causes of flooding were investigated. The results indicate that (1) the magnitudes of annual and seasonal AMF- and POT-based sampled floods generally exhibit an increasing tendency; (2) the highest occurrence rates of floods identified were during the 1990s, when the flood-affected crop area, flood-damaged crop area and crop failure area reached the highest levels; and (3) ENSO and IOD are the major climate indices that significantly correlate with the magnitude and frequency of floods of the following year.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen     

Solving Three Types of Satellite Gravity Gradient Boundary Value Problems by Least-Squares

The principle and method for solving three types of satellite gravity gradient boundary value problems by least-squares are discussed in detail. Also, kernel function expressions of the least-squares solution of three geodetic boundary value problems with the observations {Γ zz },{Γ xz , Γ yz} and {Γ xx -Γ yy ,2 Γxy}are presented. From the results of recovering gravity field using simulated gravity gradient tensor data, we can draw a conclusion that satellite gravity gradient integral formulas derived from least-squares are valid and rigorous for recovering the gravity field.