The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variation of δ18O, δD and 3H in karst springs of south Kashmir,western Himalayas (India)

Water samples were collected from cold and warm karst springs for stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δD) and ³H from SE of Kashmir valley (western Himalayas) to distinguish the sources of recharge and infer their recharge areas. The spring water samples were most depleted in heavier isotopes in May (average δ¹⁸O: ?8.87‰ and δD: ?50.3‰) and enriched in September (average δ¹⁸O: ?7.58‰ and δD: ?48.1‰). The depleted ¹⁸O and ²H of spring waters bear the signatures of winter precipitation while as the enriched ¹⁸O and ²H of spring waters bear the signature of summer rainfall. D‐excess and ³H corroborate with the stable isotope results that the spring flow in spring season (May) and autumn (September) is dominantly controlled by the melting of winter snowmelt and summer rainfall, respectively. The results showed that unlike δD, the δ¹⁸O value in the karst spring waters decreases in January suggesting δ¹⁸O shift. The spring water samples also fall above the Local Meteoric Water Line and Global Meteoric Water Line indicating the δ¹⁸O shift due to interaction of groundwater with the host carbonate rocks during its traverse. The mean elevation of the recharge areas of the springs using δ¹⁸O and δD tracers was also estimated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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Experimental and computational validation and verification of the Stokes–Darcy and continuum pipe flow models for karst aquifers with dual porosity structure

In our previous study, we developed the Stokes–Darcy (SD) model was developed for flow in a karst aquifer with a conduit bedded in matrix, and the Beavers–Joseph (BJ) condition was used to describe the matrix–conduit interface. We also studied the mathematical well‐posedness of a coupled continuum pipe flow (CCPF) model as well as convergence rates of its finite element approximation. In this study, to compare the SD model with the CCPF model, we used numerical analyses to validate finite element discretisation methods for the two models. Using computational experiments, simulation codes implementing the finite element discretisations are then verified. Further model validation studies are based on the results of laboratory experiments. Comparing the results of computer simulations and experiments, we concluded that the SD model with the Beavers–Joseph interface condition is a valid model for conduit–matrix systems. On the other hand, the CCPF model with the value of the exchange parameter chosen within the range suggested in the literature perhaps does not result in good agreement with experimental observations. We then examined the sensitivity of the CCPF model with respect to the exchange parameter, concluding that, as has previously been noted, the model is highly sensitive for small values of the exchange parameter. However, for larger values, the model becomes less sensitive and, more important, also produces results that are in better agreement with experimental observations. This suggests that the CCPF model may also produce accurate simulation results, if one chooses larger values of the exchange parameter than those suggested in the literature. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

A review of aridity and groundwater

Surface hydrological studies are seen as inadequate in hyperarid and arid areas to provide reliable estimates of recharge. In most such areas surface discharges are not present so that assessments of groundwater resources are dependent upon ground interpretation and denied the flow control found in assessments elsewhere. Groundwater models show that gradients are sustained by long-term dewatering and very small amounts of modern indirect recharge. Recharge indications are well within the error of a hydrological balance. Discharges appear equally small. The development of groundwater in arid areas frequently faces problems of salination due to recycling of irrigation water and rising groundwater heads. Abstraction is often inadequately managed so that uncontrolled mining of groundwater occurs. The advantage that groundwater has, however, is that it offers staged development and staged appraisal.     

高密度电法在老山隧道勘察中的应用

应用高密度电阻率法勘察宁淮高速公路南京老山隧道工程,查明了隧道YK5 280~ZK5 540段的地层分布和构造特征,并推断出鹰嘴山断层的位置和产状,结合勘察资料证明该断层为高角度逆断层。预测出隧道和断层破碎带相交处为浅部裂隙岩溶含水带中的优良导水带,该处涌水的可能性很大,其推断结果在施工中得到证实。说明高密度电法是进行隧道勘察和构造裂隙岩溶富水带探测的一种可靠手段。     

Modelling the non‐linear hydrological behaviour of a small Mediterranean forested catchment

A progressive perceptual understanding approach was used to identify a model structure able to represent the non‐linear behaviour of the hydrological cycle in a small intermittent Mediterranean stream. The initial lumped model structure consisting of a series of four connected water tanks (LU3) progressed to a model with five tanks (LU4), and finally to a semidistributed model structure (SD4) in which spatial variability of the evapotranspiration according to the vegetation cover and to the local aspect was considered. In the final model structure, which gave the best fit (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index = 0·78), an additional tank representing the riparian zone was included (SD4‐R). Results showed that the abrupt changes of the riparian water table during summer and the formation of a perched water table during the transition from dry to wet conditions were the main mechanisms leading to the non‐linear hydrological behaviour. The transpiration process from the saturated zone and the spatial variability of evapotranspiration resulted in key factors successfully representing the annual water balance. The spatial and temporal validations carried out for each of the four model structures considered in this study supported the hypothesis adopted during the calibration process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic aspects of micropaleontologic assemblage zones

A micropaleontologic assemblage zone is defined by occurrence of some characteristic species among many coeval species. When number of assemblage-defining species and total number of species observed are designated as Aand N,respectively, the ratio, A/N,is strongly dependent on duration of the assemblage. Theoretical consideration on the basis of a micropaleontologic cohort model shows that, when origination rate and extinction rate of species are obtained, the most reasonable ratio (A/N) and duration of the assemblage can be determined. The probabilistic model described in this paper provides a theoretical relation between the ratio and the duration. Inaccuracy in correlating micropaleontologic data to certain assemblage zones established can not be avoided because of many natural sorting and artificial biases. Ambiguity arising when data with a small number of characteristic species are correlated with a certain assemblage is numerically estimated.     

辽南早元古宙变质热液型金矿床成矿机理探讨

辽南早元古宙辽河群变质岩系中的金矿床为变质热液成因金矿床,矿床的形成与吕梁期变质变形作用关系密切。金矿化带的展布与金矿体的产出受韧性剪切带控制。剪切带内岩石具有明显的动态性组构特征,直接赋矿围岩为辽河群盖县组糜棱岩化千枚岩、变砂岩及云母石英糜棱岩等。韧性剪切带为含矿流体的运移提供通道。作者定义这类金矿床为变质热液型含金剪切带金矿床。