Task-oriented information value measurement based on space-time prisms

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in the amount of information available from the Web and many other sources. Such an information deluge presents a challenge for individuals who have to identify useful information items to complete particular tasks in hand. Information value theory (IVT) from economics and artificial intelligence has provided some guidance on this issue. However, existing IVT studies often focus on monetary values, while ignoring the spatiotemporal properties which can play important roles in everyday tasks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for task-oriented information value measurement. This framework integrates IVT with the space-time prism from time geography and measures the value of information based on its impact on an individual’s space-time prisms and its capability of improving task planning. We develop and formalize this framework by extending the utility function from space-time accessibility studies and elaborate it using a simplified example from time geography. We conduct a simulation on a real-world transportation network using the proposed framework. Our research could be applied to improving information display on small-screen mobile devices (e.g., smartwatches) by assigning priorities to different information items.     

Uncertainty analysis of space–time prisms based on the moment-design method

Space–time prism (STP) is an important concept for the modeling of object movements in space and time. An STP can be conceptualized as the result of the potential path of a moving object revolving around in the three-dimensional space. Though the concept has found applications in time geography, research on the analysis and propagation of uncertainty in STPs, particularly under high degree of nonlinearity, is scanty. Based on the efficiency and effectiveness of the moment-design (M-D) method, this paper proposes an approach to deal with nonlinear error propagation problems in the potential path areas (PPAs) of STPs and their intersections. Propagation of errors to the PPA and its boundary, and to the intersection of two PPAs is investigated. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated via a series of experimental studies. In comparison with the Monte Carlo method and the implicit function method, simulation results show the advantages of the M-D method in the analysis of error propagation in STPs.     

新疆额尔宾山花岗岩侵位年龄和成因及其对南天山洋闭合时代的限定

额尔宾山花岗岩岩体位于南天山晚古生代侵入岩带,对该花岗岩进行锆石U-Pb定年获得296.1±1.8Ma的年龄,为早二叠世。岩石主量元素分析结果表明,该花岗岩的Si O2含量为66.96%~67.3%,富碱(Na2O+K2O=7.53%~7.97%),K2O/Na2O1(1.15~1.27),属高钾钙碱性系列岩石;Al2O3为15.56%~15.62%,Al2O3K2O+Na2O+Ca O,属于过铝型。岩石稀土元素配分模式呈现轻稀土元素(LREE)富集((La/Yb)N=27.03~30.62)、重稀土元素(HREE)亏损((LREE/HREE)=18.2~20.1)、具有中等程度的负Eu异常(δEu=0.64~0.68)。微量元素判别结果显示,其具有I-A型花岗岩过渡的特征。结合区域地质背景综合分析,初步认定该岩体可能形成于南天山同碰撞向后碰撞构造体制转换时期,据此可以推测南天山洋盆闭合时限至少应该在早二叠世以前。     

应用两次展开法求解系泊柱体慢漂运动方程

在深海中系泊的海洋平台,如Spar平台,水下部分为带有系泊的圆柱结构,其水平方向运动响应往往具有较低的自振频率,容易在低频波浪力(源于非线性的差频效应)作用下发生共振响应,使结构发生大幅水平慢漂。当浮体的瞬时位置大幅偏离初始位置时,基于初始平衡位置的摄动展开法会存在较大误差。针对这一问题,采用两次展开方法,对大幅慢漂运动开展时域模拟研究。对双色波作用下自由漂浮圆柱的大幅运动响应问题进行数值分析,并与采用基于初始平衡位置的摄动展开法的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明,采用新的两次展开法可以计算出波浪遭遇频率的变化和波浪漂移阻尼,而这无法从基于初始平衡位置的常规摄动展开法中得到,体现了两次展开法在分析大幅慢漂问题上的优势。     

用化石天长计算地球年龄的方法及意义——如何理解地球年龄

天长（一天时长）是地球自转速度的直接反映。古生代-中生代化石记录的天长数据表明,古生代-中生代期间的天长随时间呈线性增加。根据角动量守恒定律,这意味着同时段地球自转速度呈线性衰减。如果把这个趋势应用于地球历史的全过程,计算结果为4.519～4.495 Ga,与目前公认的地球绝对年龄4.54 Ga一致。这意味着,从这个时间点起,地球有一种自转速度衰减的总趋势。地球自转速度衰减年龄等值于地球年龄说明：1）所测量的陨石样本生成的时间（表征地球年龄）与地球受月球吸引形成自转减速的时间几乎相同。这意味着地-月体系形成之前的地球比该陨石表征的地球年龄更为古老。2）地球、月球、自转速度衰减时长,三者的年龄呈现等值状态,因而此结果与月球起源于大碰撞的假说可以匹配。     

融雪洪水跳跃变异对其参数估计不确定性影响分析

利用Pettitt非参数检验法和Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法,分析年最大洪峰流量序列的非一致性,确定序列的变异形式,采用“分解-合成”理论对其进行一致性修正,得到过去、现状两种条件下年最大洪峰流量序列,根据贝叶斯理论对序列一致性修正前后参数不确定性进行估计,并对其预报区间优良性进行评价。研究结果表明：年最大洪峰流量序列变异点发生在1993年,序列整体上升趋势不显著,在1957-1993年子序列呈显著下降趋势,而1994-2006年子序列变化趋势不显著,跳跃变异为序列主要变异形式;给出了实测、还原及还现序列参数后验分布估计值及95%置信区间,将其结合优化适线法进行P-Ⅲ型频率分析,得到修正前后设计频率年最大洪峰流量预报区间估计值;还原、还现序列与实测序列相比,预报区间覆盖率均提高24%,平均带宽分别减少39.59%、23.17%,平均偏移幅度分别减少28.45%、11.39%。通过对非一致性年最大洪峰流量序列还原/还现计算,可减小参数估计不确定性对其计算产生的影响,从而提高预报区间的可靠性。     

Semantic and syntactic interoperability in online processing of big Earth observation data

ABSTRACT

The challenge of enabling syntactic and semantic interoperability for comprehensive and reproducible online processing of big Earth observation (EO) data is still unsolved. Supporting both types of interoperability is one of the requirements to efficiently extract valuable information from the large amount of available multi-temporal gridded data sets. The proposed system wraps world models, (semantic interoperability) into OGC Web Processing Services (syntactic interoperability) for semantic online analyses. World models describe spatio-temporal entities and their relationships in a formal way. The proposed system serves as enabler for (1) technical interoperability using a standardised interface to be used by all types of clients and (2) allowing experts from different domains to develop complex analyses together as collaborative effort. Users are connecting the world models online to the data, which are maintained in a centralised storage as 3D spatio-temporal data cubes. It allows also non-experts to extract valuable information from EO data because data management, low-level interactions or specific software issues can be ignored. We discuss the concept of the proposed system, provide a technical implementation example and describe three use cases for extracting changes from EO images and demonstrate the usability also for non-EO, gridded, multi-temporal data sets (CORINE land cover).     

Mapping cropland fallow areas in myanmar to scale up sustainable intensification of pulse crops in the farming system

Cropland fallows are the next best-bet for intensification and extensification, leading to increased food production and adding to the nutritional basket. The agronomical suitability of these lands can decide the extent of usage of these lands. Myanmar’s agricultural land (over 13.8 Mha) has the potential to expand by another 50% into additional fallow areas. These areas may be used to grow short-duration pulses, which are economically important and nutritionally rich, and constitute the diets of millions of people as well as provide an important source of livestock feed throughout Asia. Intensifying rice fallows will not only improve the productivity of the land but also increase the income of the smallholder farmers. The enhanced cultivation of pulses will help improve nutritional security in Myanmar and also help conserve natural resources and reduce environmental degradation. The objectives of this study was to use remote sensing methods to identify croplands in Myanmar and cropland fallow areas in two important agro-ecological regions, delta and coastal region and the dry zone. The study used moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m, 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maximum value composite (MVC), and land surface water index (LSWI) for one 1 year (1 June 2012–31 May 2013) along with seasonal field-plot level information and spectral matching techniques to derive croplands versus cropland fallows for each of the three seasons: the monsoon period between June and October; winter period between November and February; and summer period between March and May. The study showed that Myanmar had total net cropland area (TNCA) of 13.8 Mha. Cropland fallows during the monsoon season account for a meagre 2.4% of TNCA. However, in the winter season, 56.5% of TNCA (or 7.8 Mha) were classified as cropland fallows and during the summer season, 82.7% of TNCA (11.4 Mha) were cropland fallows. The producer’s accuracy of the cropland fallow class varied between 92 and 98% (errors of omission of 2 to 8%) and user’s accuracy varied between 82 and 92% (errors of commission of 8 to 18%) for winter and summer, respectively. Overall, the study estimated 19.2 Mha cropland fallows from the two major seasons (winter and summer). Out of this, 10.08 Mha has sufficient moisture (either from rainfall or stored soil water content) to grow short-season pulse crops. This potential with an estimated income of US$ 300 per hectare, if exploited sustainably, is estimated to bring an additional net income of about US$ 1.5 billion to Myanmar per year if at least half (5.04 Mha) of the total cropland fallows (10.08 Mha) is covered with short season pulses.     

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。     

基于循环神经网络的单站能见度短临预报试验

由于能见度具有局地性和复杂的非线性变化特征,一直是精细化预报的难点。人工神经网络对复杂变化过程的模拟能力较高,为解决这一难题提供了可能性。本文采用循环神经网络,利用福州气象观测站地面观测数据,建立了福州单站能见度短临预报模型,并就预报能力进行了评估。随机检验结果表明,在1 h、3 h、6 h时效上,循环神经网络的预报与观测的变化趋势一致性较好;均方根误差比基于实况的预报分别减小15.75%、31.66%、41.26%,说明具备较好的预报能力;平均绝对值误差比传统BP神经网络分别减小12.90%、24.45%、 38.99%,表明循环神经网络对能见度预报具有优势,为能见度的精细化短临预报提供了新途径。