Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Development of joints and shear fractures in the Kuqa depression and its implication to regional stress field switching

The superimposed basin must have undergone the changes of regional stress field. Study on the nature and switch of regional stress field of superimposed basin is very useful to understanding its stress state and tectonic events during its formation and evolution. As sensitive markers of small stress changes, joint and shear fracture, characterized by consistency of orientation over wide area, can be used to reconstruct paleostress state and its evolution. Detailed observations and analysis on the orientations, geometrical patterns, sequences of joints and shear fractures and their chronological relation to faults and folds show that, the NEE-SWW systematic joints and NNW-SSE systematic joints developed in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata are much more prominent than NW-SE systematic joints and shear fractures with different orientations. And the NWW-SEE and NW-SE systematic joints formed later than NEE-SWW systematic joints but earlier than shear fractures with different orientations. According to the relationships between joint and shear fractures and stress, the NEE-SWW systematic joints are inferred to result from lateral weak extension caused by the late Cretaceous regional uplift, while the NNW-SSE and NW-SE systematic joints are interpreted as syn-tectonic deformation relating to strong N-S compression in the Neogene. But some conjugate shear fractures occur probably due to sinistral strike-slip faulting in the Kuqa depression. At the beginning of the Neogene, the stress field changed and the maximal principal stress σ1 switched from vertical to horizontal.     

Ar/Ar ages of tephras intercalated in astronomically tuned Neogene sedimentary sequences in the eastern Mediterranean

We present new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data for sanidine and biotite derived from volcanic ash layers that are intercalated in Pliocene and late Miocene astronomically dated sequences in the Mediterranean with the aim to solve existing inconsistencies in the intercalibration between the two independent absolute dating methods. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar sanidine ages are systematically younger by 0.7-2.3% than the astronomical ages for the same ash layers. The significance of the discrepancy disappears except for the upper Ptolemais ashes, which reveal the largest difference, if an improved full error propagation method is applied to calculate the absolute error in the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. The total variance is dominated by that of the activity of the decay of ⁴⁰K to ⁴⁰Ar (∼70%) and that the amount of radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar_p in the primary standard GA1550 biotite (∼15%). If the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages are calculated relative to an astronomically dated standard, the influence of these parameters is greatly reduced, resulting in a more reliable age and in a significant reduction of the error in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating.Astronomically calibrated ages for Taylor Creek Rhyolite (TCR) and Fish Canyon Tuff (FCT) sanidine are 28.53±0.02 and 28.21±0.04 Ma (±1 S.E.), respectively, if we start from the more reliable results of the Cretan A1 ash layer. The most likely explanation for the large discrepancy found for the younger Ptolemais ash layers (equivalent to FCT of 28.61 Ma) is an error in the tuning of this part of the sequence.     

Seismic performance evaluation of steel arch bridges against major earthquakes. Part 1: dynamic analysis approach

In this study the inelastic behavior of steel arch bridges subjected to strong ground motions from major earthquakes is investigated by dynamic analyses of a typical steel arch bridge using a three‐dimensional (3D) analytical model, since checking seismic performance against severe earthquakes is not usually performed when designing such kinds of bridge. The bridge considered is an upper‐deck steel arch bridge having a reinforced concrete (RC) deck, steel I‐section girders and steel arch ribs. The input ground motions are accelerograms which are modified ground motions based on the records from the 1995 Hyogoken‐Nanbu earthquake. Both the longitudinal and transverse dynamic characteristics of the bridge are studied by investigation of time‐history responses of the main parameters. It is found that seismic responses are small when subjected to the longitudinal excitation, but significantly large under the transverse ground motion due to plasticization formed in some segments such as arch rib ends and side pier bases where axial force levels are very high. Finally, a seismic performance evaluation method based on the response strain index is proposed for such steel bridge structures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性.根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性.对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像.根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4, 3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性.所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现.实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型.     

经历剪切变形历史的岩石节理表面粗糙特性分析

基于两类岩石节理剪切试验，采用非接触式激光测距仪，实测了剪切前后节理表面粗糙数据，统计分析了岩石节理表面粗糙特性的三维粗糙参数的物理含义，并将这些参数与相应的二维参数进行了充分比较。结果表明，三维参数与二维参数间存在的近似线性关系，而多个三维参数相对比单一的二维参数更全面有效地描述了节理表面粗糙特性。     

天目湖热力学状况的监测与分析

根据2001年6月～2002年5月在天目湖进行的每月一次的全湖水温观测以及2002年5月25～26日在1号点的定点24h连续水温观测资料,分析研究了天目湖水温时空分布、垂直分布、温跃层的形成与变化以及湖泊热力学对溶解氧、营养盐的影响,揭示了各自的基本变化规律。结果表明:天目湖水温的日变化、年变化及垂直分布明显,而其水平差异不大;温跃层随着季节的变化而呈现增强-稳定-减弱-消失的周期变化;水温的变化以及温跃层的存在引起了水中溶解氧以及营养盐的变化。     

昌马水库右岸山体稳定性研究

昌马水库导流排砂洞塌方导致右岸山体发生松动 ,本文在大量地质资料的基础上 ,对右岸岩体裂隙网络进行模拟 ,同时 ,采用极限分析能量法和有限元数值模拟方法等对右岸山体的稳定性进行分析研究 ,并提出相应的加固方案。     

四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。     

Nuclear Waste Disposal Simulations: Couplex Test Cases

We give some results obtained for the Couplex test cases proposed by the ANDRA. In this paper our aim is twofold. Firstly, to compute the release of nuclides out of the repository by concentrating on the 3D near field (Couplex 2). The simulation of the transport phenomena takes into account the dissolution of the glass containers and congruent emissions of the radio-nuclides including filiation chains and some simplified chemistry. Secondly, it is to use the near field computations in order to simulate the nuclide migrations in a 2D far field (Couplex 3). Coupling in between the two simulations takes into consideration the periodicity of the disposal modules and the geometry of the repository described in Couplex 1. The mixed finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods are used to solve the convection–diffusion equations. In order to handle the nonlinear precipitation/dissolution term, we developed a new iterative technique that combines Picard and Newton–Raphson methods.